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2022-02-04

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Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K

You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. Whit

Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K

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Whit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>You know it&#39;s likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to &#34;prepare&#34; the public, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese is calling it &#34;confusing&#34; and even Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said to take the figures with a grain of salt. The report will come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and investors are bracing for another uncertain number, adding to the volatile market environment.</p><p><i>What&#39;s going on?</i> The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects jobs data during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. In January, that week happened to coincide with new Omicron cases peaking in the U.S., when millions were calling out sick, quarantining or caring for others. If staff were not eligible for paid leave, they are going to be marked as not working. January is also a month with extreme seasonal adjustments (think temporary holiday workers), while household survey data could be affected by new establishments and population controls. Memo to markets: Don&#39;t freak out if the January jobs report weakens.</p><p>Recall that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said he doesn&#39;t place a large amount of importance to any one month of jobs data, as the month-to-month figures can be volatile. The funny thing is, the big misses have happened multiple times in recent months (Dec. 199K vs. 400K, Nov. 210K vs. 550K, Sept. 194K vs. 500K, and Aug. 235K vs. 750K). Paid sick leave is also known to be available to 79% of civilian workers, according to government data, so the forecasts should reflect that. 1.9M payroll additions were still added over the course of 2021, but with severe misses over many months, do we need a better system to calculate non-farm payrolls or estimates?ADP National Employment Report shows private payrolls declining for the first time in a year.</p><p><i>The good?</i>&#34; As far as [the jobs market] being weak, I don&#39;t know if anyone&#39;s going to give it much credence,&#34; said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. &#34;You&#39;ve clearly got Omicron cases collapsing. You&#39;re seeing some high-frequency data showing some pretty significant pickups. I just think that calms a lot of the marketplace.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The hiccup in the labor market and lost jobs is temporary. It is the inflation danger that is paramount in the minds of Fed officials,&#34; noted economist Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG.</p><p><i>The bad?</i>&#34;A weak jobs report means a longer runway for inflation until workers come back into the workforce to provide relief to widespread shortages,&#34; declared Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates.</p><p>&#34;Underlying demand in the economy is still strong, and businesses are still trying to hire,&#34; added Gus Faucher, chief U.S. economist at PNC. &#34;But the January drop in employment is another reminder that the economy will not fully return to normal until the pandemic is over.&#34;</p><p><b>Analyst estimates:</b> Consensus forecasts from economists anticipate employers only added 150K jobs last month, but some are flagging (much) worse figures. Deutsche Bank sees a gain of 125K, Citigroup sees growth of 70K, while Standard Chartered forecasts a net addition of just 50K. A contraction is also possible, with Capital Economics suggesting that non-farm payrolls may have actually fallen by 200K, Goldman sees a 250K drop, Pantheon Macroeconomics puts the decline at 300K and PNC even projects a plunge of 400K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.9%, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.5%, boosting the annual increase to 5.2% from 4.7% in December.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-04 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to \"prepare\" the public, National Economic Council ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161887526","content_text":"You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to \"prepare\" the public, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese is calling it \"confusing\" and even Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said to take the figures with a grain of salt. The report will come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and investors are bracing for another uncertain number, adding to the volatile market environment.What's going on? The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects jobs data during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. In January, that week happened to coincide with new Omicron cases peaking in the U.S., when millions were calling out sick, quarantining or caring for others. If staff were not eligible for paid leave, they are going to be marked as not working. January is also a month with extreme seasonal adjustments (think temporary holiday workers), while household survey data could be affected by new establishments and population controls. Memo to markets: Don't freak out if the January jobs report weakens.Recall that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said he doesn't place a large amount of importance to any one month of jobs data, as the month-to-month figures can be volatile. The funny thing is, the big misses have happened multiple times in recent months (Dec. 199K vs. 400K, Nov. 210K vs. 550K, Sept. 194K vs. 500K, and Aug. 235K vs. 750K). Paid sick leave is also known to be available to 79% of civilian workers, according to government data, so the forecasts should reflect that. 1.9M payroll additions were still added over the course of 2021, but with severe misses over many months, do we need a better system to calculate non-farm payrolls or estimates?ADP National Employment Report shows private payrolls declining for the first time in a year.The good?\" As far as [the jobs market] being weak, I don't know if anyone's going to give it much credence,\" said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. \"You've clearly got Omicron cases collapsing. You're seeing some high-frequency data showing some pretty significant pickups. I just think that calms a lot of the marketplace.\"\"The hiccup in the labor market and lost jobs is temporary. It is the inflation danger that is paramount in the minds of Fed officials,\" noted economist Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG.The bad?\"A weak jobs report means a longer runway for inflation until workers come back into the workforce to provide relief to widespread shortages,\" declared Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates.\"Underlying demand in the economy is still strong, and businesses are still trying to hire,\" added Gus Faucher, chief U.S. economist at PNC. \"But the January drop in employment is another reminder that the economy will not fully return to normal until the pandemic is over.\"Analyst estimates: Consensus forecasts from economists anticipate employers only added 150K jobs last month, but some are flagging (much) worse figures. Deutsche Bank sees a gain of 125K, Citigroup sees growth of 70K, while Standard Chartered forecasts a net addition of just 50K. A contraction is also possible, with Capital Economics suggesting that non-farm payrolls may have actually fallen by 200K, Goldman sees a 250K drop, Pantheon Macroeconomics puts the decline at 300K and PNC even projects a plunge of 400K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.9%, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.5%, boosting the annual increase to 5.2% from 4.7% in December.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}