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JimmyChua
2022-12-23

It's off to his next group of leaders

Why Isn't Warren Buffett Buying Alphabet (Google) Stock Hand Over Fist?

Buffett regrets not investing in Google earlier. He could experience regret in the future for not buying the stock now.

Why Isn't Warren Buffett Buying Alphabet (Google) Stock Hand Over Fist?

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He could experience regret in the future for not buying the stock now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>What does Warren Buffett like in a stock? You could put a solid business moat high on the list. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTM.AU\">High</a> returns on invested capital (ROIC) would be up there, too, as would an outstanding management team. And we can&#39;t leave out an attractive valuation.</p><p>Google parent<b> Alphabet</b> checks off all of those boxes and dominates its core search market. It&#39;s a strong challenger in others, as well, notably including cloud hosting. Alphabet&#39;s ROIC consistently trounces the levels generated by Buffett&#39;s own <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>. The company&#39;s CEO Sundar Pichai has an exceptional track record.</p><p>Then there&#39;s valuation. Alphabet stock has plunged nearly 40% year to date. It has never been this cheap, based on its projected future free cash flow. So why isn&#39;t Buffett buying Alphabet stock hand over fist?</p><h2>Buffett&#39;s initial hesitation</h2><p>There were several reasons why Buffett didn&#39;t initially buy what was then Google stock. Most importantly, he didn&#39;t think the company&#39;s business was within his circle of competence. Buffett has avoided many tech stocks for this very reason.</p><p>The legendary investor also wasn&#39;t sure about how sustainable Google&#39;s moat was. Years ago, it wasn&#39;t nearly as clear that Google would be as dominant over the long run in search as it ultimately became.</p><p>These factors undoubtedly made it challenging for Buffett to project Google&#39;s earnings and assess its valuation. He wrote to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 2013:</p><blockquote>We first have to decide whether we can sensibly estimate an earnings range for five years out, or more. If the answer is yes, we will buy the stock (or business) if it sells at a reasonable price in relation to the bottom boundary of our estimate. If, however, we lack the ability to estimate future earnings -- which is usually the case -- we simply move on to other prospects.</blockquote><p>Buffett followed this process with Google years ago. And using his own words, he moved on to other prospects.</p><h2>Then and now</h2><p>Does this past reluctance explain Buffett&#39;s current decision not to invest in what is now Alphabet? There&#39;s certainly an argument to be made that it shouldn&#39;t.</p><p>Back in 2017, Buffett told CNBC that he &#34;should have had better insight into Google.&#34; Berkshire&#39;s GEICO insurance was a heavy advertiser on the company&#39;s search engine. Buffett admitted that it was &#34;an extraordinary business&#34; that claimed &#34;some aspects of a natural monopoly.&#34;</p><p>Surely, the Oracle of Omaha understands Alphabet&#39;s business much better now than he did in the past. He has also gone along with his two investment managers, Ted Combs and Todd Weschler, in adding several tech stocks to Berkshire&#39;s portfolio, including <b>Amazon</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a></b>.</p><p>However, it&#39;s quite possible that Buffett is still uneasy about projecting Alphabet&#39;s future earnings. The company&#39;s YouTube business is threatened, to some extent, by rivals such as TikTok. Some maintain that OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT chatbot could be &#34;a Google killer.&#34;</p><h2>Toes in the water, head in the sand?</h2><p>Buffett does have his toes in the water with Alphabet. Earlier this year, Berkshire initiated a position in <b>Markel</b>, which is sometimes referred to as a &#34;baby Berkshire&#34; because of its similarities with Berkshire Hathaway. And it owns over 3.1 million shares of Alphabet.</p><p>But this indirect ownership obviously isn&#39;t in the same ballpark as Buffett buying Alphabet shares outright. So why isn&#39;t he loading up on the stock?</p><p>My view is that it&#39;s for the same reasons why he didn&#39;t buy the stock years ago. The company is still outside his circle of competence, which makes it hard for him to assess its valuation.</p><p>What&#39;s more difficult to understand, though, is why Combs and Weschler haven&#39;t moved to invest in Alphabet. The company truly does check off a lot of boxes that they, like Buffett, like to see.</p><p>TikTok and ChatGPT have a long way to go to even have a chance at knocking Alphabet off its perch. There&#39;s a real chance that TikTok could be banned in the U.S. Alphabet has its own AI chatbot, LaMDA, which some believe is more advanced than ChatGPT.</p><p>Although Buffett has his toes in the water with Alphabet, his head (or the heads of his investment managers) could be in the sand. Now appears to be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy this exceptional stock.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Isn't Warren Buffett Buying Alphabet (Google) Stock Hand Over Fist?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Isn't Warren Buffett Buying Alphabet (Google) Stock Hand Over Fist?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-23 22:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/22/warren-buffett-isnt-buying-alphabet-google-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What does Warren Buffett like in a stock? You could put a solid business moat high on the list. High returns on invested capital (ROIC) would be up there, too, as would an outstanding management team....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/22/warren-buffett-isnt-buying-alphabet-google-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","GOOG":"谷歌","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","SG9999014906.USD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc USD","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4538":"云计算"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/22/warren-buffett-isnt-buying-alphabet-google-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293588795","content_text":"What does Warren Buffett like in a stock? You could put a solid business moat high on the list. High returns on invested capital (ROIC) would be up there, too, as would an outstanding management team. And we can't leave out an attractive valuation.Google parent Alphabet checks off all of those boxes and dominates its core search market. It's a strong challenger in others, as well, notably including cloud hosting. Alphabet's ROIC consistently trounces the levels generated by Buffett's own Berkshire Hathaway. The company's CEO Sundar Pichai has an exceptional track record.Then there's valuation. Alphabet stock has plunged nearly 40% year to date. It has never been this cheap, based on its projected future free cash flow. So why isn't Buffett buying Alphabet stock hand over fist?Buffett's initial hesitationThere were several reasons why Buffett didn't initially buy what was then Google stock. Most importantly, he didn't think the company's business was within his circle of competence. Buffett has avoided many tech stocks for this very reason.The legendary investor also wasn't sure about how sustainable Google's moat was. Years ago, it wasn't nearly as clear that Google would be as dominant over the long run in search as it ultimately became.These factors undoubtedly made it challenging for Buffett to project Google's earnings and assess its valuation. He wrote to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 2013:We first have to decide whether we can sensibly estimate an earnings range for five years out, or more. If the answer is yes, we will buy the stock (or business) if it sells at a reasonable price in relation to the bottom boundary of our estimate. If, however, we lack the ability to estimate future earnings -- which is usually the case -- we simply move on to other prospects.Buffett followed this process with Google years ago. And using his own words, he moved on to other prospects.Then and nowDoes this past reluctance explain Buffett's current decision not to invest in what is now Alphabet? There's certainly an argument to be made that it shouldn't.Back in 2017, Buffett told CNBC that he \"should have had better insight into Google.\" Berkshire's GEICO insurance was a heavy advertiser on the company's search engine. Buffett admitted that it was \"an extraordinary business\" that claimed \"some aspects of a natural monopoly.\"Surely, the Oracle of Omaha understands Alphabet's business much better now than he did in the past. He has also gone along with his two investment managers, Ted Combs and Todd Weschler, in adding several tech stocks to Berkshire's portfolio, including Amazon and Snowflake.However, it's quite possible that Buffett is still uneasy about projecting Alphabet's future earnings. The company's YouTube business is threatened, to some extent, by rivals such as TikTok. Some maintain that OpenAI's ChatGPT chatbot could be \"a Google killer.\"Toes in the water, head in the sand?Buffett does have his toes in the water with Alphabet. Earlier this year, Berkshire initiated a position in Markel, which is sometimes referred to as a \"baby Berkshire\" because of its similarities with Berkshire Hathaway. And it owns over 3.1 million shares of Alphabet.But this indirect ownership obviously isn't in the same ballpark as Buffett buying Alphabet shares outright. So why isn't he loading up on the stock?My view is that it's for the same reasons why he didn't buy the stock years ago. The company is still outside his circle of competence, which makes it hard for him to assess its valuation.What's more difficult to understand, though, is why Combs and Weschler haven't moved to invest in Alphabet. The company truly does check off a lot of boxes that they, like Buffett, like to see.TikTok and ChatGPT have a long way to go to even have a chance at knocking Alphabet off its perch. There's a real chance that TikTok could be banned in the U.S. Alphabet has its own AI chatbot, LaMDA, which some believe is more advanced than ChatGPT.Although Buffett has his toes in the water with Alphabet, his head (or the heads of his investment managers) could be in the sand. Now appears to be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy this exceptional stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}