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WangKiat
2021-11-30

Time to exit

S&P 500 may end 'pretty flat' in 2022 amid previously 'unthinkable' negative real rates, says BofA strategist

But 'the bubble today' is in bonds, not stocks, says a BofA strategist during a media briefing Monda

S&P 500 may end 'pretty flat' in 2022 amid previously 'unthinkable' negative real rates, says BofA strategist

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That's down about 1% from the index's close of 4,655.27 Monday, as U.S. stocks partially rebounded from Friday's selloff that had been sparked by fears over the omicron variant of the coronavirus.</p>\n<p>That's a \"pretty flat market from here,\" Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, said Monday during an online media briefing on the firm's U.S. economic and stock-market outlook for 2022. \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" she said, pointing to \"lofty expectations,\" Wall Street strategists increasing their stock allocations by almost 20 percentage points and \"lots of IPO activity.\"</p>\n<p>But \"the bubble today\" is in bonds, not stocks, said Subramanian, with investors expecting negative real interest rates despite that being previously \"unthinkable.\" Back in 2000, investors had accepted that the equity risk premium was negative, she said, calling that a \"prescient sign\" at the time that the market was overvalued with areas of \"bubble-like froth.\"</p>\n<p>\"You want to avoid stocks that behave like bonds or are hurt by rising interest rates,\" said Subramanian. \"We like small caps over large caps,\" she said, as well as \"value over growth.\"</p>\n<p>In Subramanian's view, the S&amp;P 500 has become \"a long duration bond,\" with investors paying for \"a lot of backend-loaded growth.\" The past decade has favored \"big growth stocks with lots of growth way out in the future as discount rates have fallen,\" she explained. But the BofA report shows the strategists are now expecting a higher discount rate as the Federal Reserve may begin hiking rates next year.</p>\n<p>The price of the S&amp;P 500, which measures the performance of U.S. large-cap stocks in the U.S., has risen about 24% this year through Monday, FactSet data shows.</p>\n<p>In 2022, \"we're looking for 13% dividend growth, with the \"action\" taking place in total return rather than price return for the S&amp;P 500, said Subramanian. \"Get ready for a total return world.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 may end 'pretty flat' in 2022 amid previously 'unthinkable' negative real rates, says BofA strategist</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 may end 'pretty flat' in 2022 amid previously 'unthinkable' negative real rates, says BofA strategist\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-30 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>But 'the bubble today' is in bonds, not stocks, says a BofA strategist during a media briefing Monday</p>\n<p>The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 index, may struggle to rise next year amid similarities to the technology bubble of 2000, according to BofA Global Research.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 4,600, BofA Global Research predicted in an equity and quant strategy note dated Nov. 23. That's down about 1% from the index's close of 4,655.27 Monday, as U.S. stocks partially rebounded from Friday's selloff that had been sparked by fears over the omicron variant of the coronavirus.</p>\n<p>That's a \"pretty flat market from here,\" Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, said Monday during an online media briefing on the firm's U.S. economic and stock-market outlook for 2022. \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" she said, pointing to \"lofty expectations,\" Wall Street strategists increasing their stock allocations by almost 20 percentage points and \"lots of IPO activity.\"</p>\n<p>But \"the bubble today\" is in bonds, not stocks, said Subramanian, with investors expecting negative real interest rates despite that being previously \"unthinkable.\" Back in 2000, investors had accepted that the equity risk premium was negative, she said, calling that a \"prescient sign\" at the time that the market was overvalued with areas of \"bubble-like froth.\"</p>\n<p>\"You want to avoid stocks that behave like bonds or are hurt by rising interest rates,\" said Subramanian. \"We like small caps over large caps,\" she said, as well as \"value over growth.\"</p>\n<p>In Subramanian's view, the S&amp;P 500 has become \"a long duration bond,\" with investors paying for \"a lot of backend-loaded growth.\" The past decade has favored \"big growth stocks with lots of growth way out in the future as discount rates have fallen,\" she explained. But the BofA report shows the strategists are now expecting a higher discount rate as the Federal Reserve may begin hiking rates next year.</p>\n<p>The price of the S&amp;P 500, which measures the performance of U.S. large-cap stocks in the U.S., has risen about 24% this year through Monday, FactSet data shows.</p>\n<p>In 2022, \"we're looking for 13% dividend growth, with the \"action\" taking place in total return rather than price return for the S&amp;P 500, said Subramanian. \"Get ready for a total return world.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187301604","content_text":"But 'the bubble today' is in bonds, not stocks, says a BofA strategist during a media briefing Monday\nThe U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, may struggle to rise next year amid similarities to the technology bubble of 2000, according to BofA Global Research.\nThe S&P 500 will end 2022 at 4,600, BofA Global Research predicted in an equity and quant strategy note dated Nov. 23. That's down about 1% from the index's close of 4,655.27 Monday, as U.S. stocks partially rebounded from Friday's selloff that had been sparked by fears over the omicron variant of the coronavirus.\nThat's a \"pretty flat market from here,\" Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, said Monday during an online media briefing on the firm's U.S. economic and stock-market outlook for 2022. \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" she said, pointing to \"lofty expectations,\" Wall Street strategists increasing their stock allocations by almost 20 percentage points and \"lots of IPO activity.\"\nBut \"the bubble today\" is in bonds, not stocks, said Subramanian, with investors expecting negative real interest rates despite that being previously \"unthinkable.\" Back in 2000, investors had accepted that the equity risk premium was negative, she said, calling that a \"prescient sign\" at the time that the market was overvalued with areas of \"bubble-like froth.\"\n\"You want to avoid stocks that behave like bonds or are hurt by rising interest rates,\" said Subramanian. \"We like small caps over large caps,\" she said, as well as \"value over growth.\"\nIn Subramanian's view, the S&P 500 has become \"a long duration bond,\" with investors paying for \"a lot of backend-loaded growth.\" The past decade has favored \"big growth stocks with lots of growth way out in the future as discount rates have fallen,\" she explained. But the BofA report shows the strategists are now expecting a higher discount rate as the Federal Reserve may begin hiking rates next year.\nThe price of the S&P 500, which measures the performance of U.S. large-cap stocks in the U.S., has risen about 24% this year through Monday, FactSet data shows.\nIn 2022, \"we're looking for 13% dividend growth, with the \"action\" taking place in total return rather than price return for the S&P 500, said Subramanian. \"Get ready for a total return world.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}