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2021-11-30

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Odd Wagers on Negative Rates Return as Fed-Hike Bets Are Pared

Interest increases in call strikes over 100 in CME data Rate markets globally have been shaken by Om

Odd Wagers on Negative Rates Return as Fed-Hike Bets Are Pared

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But the re-emergence of this kind of hedging underscores the risk to the central bank’s tightening path.</p>\n<p>Money markets have dialed back their expectations for Fed hikes, which before the emergence of the latest major coronavirus variant had risen to include as many as three quarter-point increases for 2022. The move in central-bank bets has been mirrored across global markets, and&nbsp;Treasury yields&nbsp;across the curve have dropped as investors flock to safer assets. The bond rally took a brief breather on Monday, but was once again in full flight on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>The bets on negative-rate hedging showed up in CME data released after Monday’s session, with&nbsp;open interest&nbsp;rising in several September 2022 eurodollar options with call strikes above 100 -- which equates to a negative yield. That reflects flows on Monday which, according to traders familiar with the matter, saw some 20,000 contracts bought across the two call strikes.</p>\n<p>The move came ahead of congressional testimony by Fed chief Jerome Powell, who appears before lawmakers Tuesday. &nbsp;In writtenremarksMonday, he said the omicron variant poses risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate to achieve stable prices and maximum employment.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Odd Wagers on Negative Rates Return as Fed-Hike Bets Are Pared</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOdd Wagers on Negative Rates Return as Fed-Hike Bets Are Pared\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-30 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/odd-wagers-on-negative-rates-return-as-fed-hike-bets-are-pared?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Interest increases in call strikes over 100 in CME data\nRate markets globally have been shaken by Omicron risk\n\nRogue bets that Federal Reserve policy rates might actually drop below zero are once ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/odd-wagers-on-negative-rates-return-as-fed-hike-bets-are-pared?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/odd-wagers-on-negative-rates-return-as-fed-hike-bets-are-pared?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164176927","content_text":"Interest increases in call strikes over 100 in CME data\nRate markets globally have been shaken by Omicron risk\n\nRogue bets that Federal Reserve policy rates might actually drop below zero are once again being made as the onset of the omicron variant of the coronavirus casts doubt on the economic outlook.\nEurodollar contract open-interest data from CME Group Inc. show  a couple of new trades on what remains an unlikely scenario -- a negative fed funds target by September 2022 -- although the market’s base case remains around two quarter-point benchmark hikes next year. But the re-emergence of this kind of hedging underscores the risk to the central bank’s tightening path.\nMoney markets have dialed back their expectations for Fed hikes, which before the emergence of the latest major coronavirus variant had risen to include as many as three quarter-point increases for 2022. The move in central-bank bets has been mirrored across global markets, and Treasury yields across the curve have dropped as investors flock to safer assets. The bond rally took a brief breather on Monday, but was once again in full flight on Tuesday.\nThe bets on negative-rate hedging showed up in CME data released after Monday’s session, with open interest rising in several September 2022 eurodollar options with call strikes above 100 -- which equates to a negative yield. That reflects flows on Monday which, according to traders familiar with the matter, saw some 20,000 contracts bought across the two call strikes.\nThe move came ahead of congressional testimony by Fed chief Jerome Powell, who appears before lawmakers Tuesday.  In writtenremarksMonday, he said the omicron variant poses risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate to achieve stable prices and maximum employment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}