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2021-12-14

A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.

Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing

A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.

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Here’s how to get ready.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153178155","media":"market watch","summary":"Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing ","content":"<p>Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>After the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&amp;P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>On to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>And maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&amp;P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&amp;P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>It said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&amp;P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>While the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&amp;P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&amp;P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.</p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. 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Here’s how to get ready.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 07:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2><strong>market watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.\n\nAfter the “worst inflation call ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153178155","content_text":"Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.\n\nAfter the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.\n\nOn to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”\n\nAnd maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…\n\n“Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.\n\n“Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.\n\nIt said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.\n\n“The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.\n\n\nThe only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”\n\n“Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.\n\nWhile the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}