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2021-12-01

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A bit excessive? Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs

Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery o

A bit excessive? Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs

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Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188552948","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery o","content":"<p>Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery of the new, perhaps more contagious variant of coronavirus.</p>\n<p>But the oil market has priced in a far steeper reduction to air travel. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the market has priced in what they say is a mammoth 7 million barrels of oil a day reduction in demand over the next three months, with no offsetting response in production from the OPEC+ oil cartel.</p>\n<p>That's the equivalent, say analysts led by Damien Courvalin, of \"not a single plane flying around the world for three months.\" It's also equivalent to a lockdown half as intense as the second quarter of 2020, shortly after the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 first started affecting countries outside of China.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, these analysts view the reaction as excessive. Their view is that a new variant, combined with the global release of reserves, represents only a $5 per barrel downside to its $85 forecast for the next few months.</p>\n<p>\"In fact, there's still potential for offsetting bullish developments via the lack of progress in Iranian negotiations (where we had expected a supply ramp up beginning in 2Q22). OPEC+ freezing its production hike for one month when it meets on Thursday as well as the current ramp-up in gas-to-oil substitution could in fact offset nearly half of the combined negative hits of this new COVID variant and SPR releases in the base scenario,\" they said.</p>\n<p>Crude futures rallied nearly $3 per barrel on Wednesday morning but still were trading below $70, after trading as high as $84.97 earlier in the month.</p>\n<p>Natural-gas futures , by contrast, fell 4%.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A bit excessive? 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Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 19:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bit-excessive-oil-traders-have-priced-in-a-three-month-halt-to-global-air-travel-says-goldman-sachs-11638352176?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery of the new, perhaps more contagious variant of coronavirus.\nBut the oil market has priced in a far ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bit-excessive-oil-traders-have-priced-in-a-three-month-halt-to-global-air-travel-says-goldman-sachs-11638352176?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GS":"高盛","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bit-excessive-oil-traders-have-priced-in-a-three-month-halt-to-global-air-travel-says-goldman-sachs-11638352176?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188552948","content_text":"Japan, Israel and Morocco have each put a ban on international travel in the face of the discovery of the new, perhaps more contagious variant of coronavirus.\nBut the oil market has priced in a far steeper reduction to air travel. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the market has priced in what they say is a mammoth 7 million barrels of oil a day reduction in demand over the next three months, with no offsetting response in production from the OPEC+ oil cartel.\nThat's the equivalent, say analysts led by Damien Courvalin, of \"not a single plane flying around the world for three months.\" It's also equivalent to a lockdown half as intense as the second quarter of 2020, shortly after the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 first started affecting countries outside of China.\nNot surprisingly, these analysts view the reaction as excessive. Their view is that a new variant, combined with the global release of reserves, represents only a $5 per barrel downside to its $85 forecast for the next few months.\n\"In fact, there's still potential for offsetting bullish developments via the lack of progress in Iranian negotiations (where we had expected a supply ramp up beginning in 2Q22). OPEC+ freezing its production hike for one month when it meets on Thursday as well as the current ramp-up in gas-to-oil substitution could in fact offset nearly half of the combined negative hits of this new COVID variant and SPR releases in the base scenario,\" they said.\nCrude futures rallied nearly $3 per barrel on Wednesday morning but still were trading below $70, after trading as high as $84.97 earlier in the month.\nNatural-gas futures , by contrast, fell 4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

A bit excessive? Oil traders have priced in a three-month halt to global air travel, says Goldman Sachs

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