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中国的经济重新回到南宋时代，经济中心进一步向南方倾斜。不仅上海、深圳、杭州、成都，武汉表现亮眼，甚至是长沙、贵阳、南宁等省会城市发展势头也超过北方城市。客观的数据干巴巴，却是大家都明白的事实。这其实可以从科创板和创业板的公司看出来，科创板的公司中，长三角和珠三角+北京+成都，其他地区几乎忽略不计，而大家都明白科创板代表中国未来。对于区域性经济和银行来说，只有强的地方政府和地方经济，才可能捆绑在一起，否则就变成了包商银行。So。。你懂的未来！

当前周期中有两个经济驱动因素为中国最大的区域性银行提供支持

尽管区域性银行作为一个整体在较高的整体问题资产和较弱的资本中表现出严重的信用劣势。顶级区域银行将受益于那些对中国经济至关重要的GDP贡献地区-我们预计2021年整体增长将反弹至7％-并将贷款重点放在实力较强的区域企业和零售借款人身上。

顶级区域性银行的表现优于小型银行，这缓解了系统性风险的担忧，因为这表明实力较弱的区域性银行很可能规模较小，其独特的困境问题可以由当局解决，以免造成传染风险。

顶级区域性银行的信贷指标在资产质量，盈利能力和资本化方面将继续优于其较小的同行。

Two economic drivers support China's largest regional banks in the current cycle

despite regional banks as a group exhibiting significant credit weakness in higher overall problem assets and weaker capitalization. Top regional banks will benefit from operating in regions that are key GDP contributors to China's economy – where we expect overall growth rebound to 7% in 2021 – and a lending focus on the stronger regional enterprises and retail borrowers.

Top regional banks outperformed their small peers, which alleviates systemic risk concerns because it suggests that weaker regional banks are likely to be individually small and their distinctive distress issues can be resolved by the authorities so as not to create contagion risk.

Top regional banks' credit metrics will continue to outperform their smaller peers in asset quality, profitability and capitalization.

经济反弹、低利率和稳定的房地产市场使顶级区域银行受益

顶级区域银行的资本水平将提高，同时其资产绩效和盈利能力仍将保持弹性