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2021-02-08

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Disney earnings preview: Can Disney+ maintain its torrid pace to sustain the Magic Kingdom?

Propelled by its streaming service, the Magic Kingdom should post respectable fiscal first-quarter r

Disney earnings preview: Can Disney+ maintain its torrid pace to sustain the Magic Kingdom?

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It unfurled a slate of big-budget movies — including “Raya and the Last Dragon” in March 5 — will open on its burgeoning streaming service and in theaters as part of a direct-to-consumer push. In coming years, Disney+ will be home to a fire hose of 10 new Marvel series, 10 new “Star Wars” series, 15 animated and live-action Pixar and Disney series, and 15 Disney-Pixar films that will be newly branded as Disney+ Original.</p>\n<p>As of Dec. 2, Disney+ had 86.8 million paid subscribers, and Disney expects that figure to balloon to 230 million to 260 million by the end of 2024. Including Hulu and ESPN+, total world-wide direct-to-consumer subscribers should reach 300 million to 350 million by the end of 2024.</p>\n<p>It might be a stretch for Disney+ to top 100 subscribers in Q1, but plenty of analysts are looking for sustained growth.</p>\n<p>What to expect</p>\n<p><b>Earnings:</b>Analysts polled by FactSet on average expect a loss of 33 cents a share, which would be a decline from $1.53 a share in the first quarter of 2019. The estimate has plummeted from a penny a share on Sept. 30.</p>\n<p>Contributors to Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, are also projecting a loss of -33 cents a share on average.</p>\n<p><b>Revenue:</b>Analysts on average expect Disney to report $15.89 billion in first-quarter revenue, according to FactSet, down from $20.86 billion the year before.</p>\n<p>Estimize contributors are expecting revenue of $15.89 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Stock movement:</b>Through Friday, shares are up 28.5% over the past 12 months, giving it a market value of $327 billion. The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.39%has increased 17% in the past year.</p>\n<p><b>What analysts are saying</b></p>\n<p>• “We now expect Disney+ to end FQ1 with 95m subs from 90m prior, and vs. 86.8m reported as of December 2, as we are encouraged by third-party data. According to Apptopia, Disney+ mobile MAUs have increased from 33m as of December 2 to 50m as of January 2, with substantial growth coming from Brazil and Mexico.” — JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani, while maintaining an overweight rating and hiking price target to $210 from $175 on Jan. 11.</p>\n<p>• “We were wrong… We were simply blown away [on investor day] by the depth of content being created for Disney+ (and the dollars behind it). Increasing content spend on Disney+ to over $8 billion by 2024 compared to a target of $4 billion set just a year ago is a dramatic acceleration.” — Lightshed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield, upgrading Disney’s rating to neutral from sell on Jan. 8.</p>\n<p>• “We maintain Buy on differentiated assets, direct-to-consumer momentum (Star/Star+ launches and more Disney+ markets in 2021; content investment should also benefit consumer products/licensing and Parks), and out-years post-COVID recovery at Parks (we expect</p>\n<p>pent-up demand on leaner cost base).” — Truist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton, maintaining a buy rating and raising price target to $195 from $175 on Jan. 5.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney earnings preview: Can Disney+ maintain its torrid pace to sustain the Magic Kingdom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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It unfurled a slate of big-budget movies — including “Raya and the Last Dragon” in March 5 — will open on its burgeoning streaming service and in theaters as part of a direct-to-consumer push. In coming years, Disney+ will be home to a fire hose of 10 new Marvel series, 10 new “Star Wars” series, 15 animated and live-action Pixar and Disney series, and 15 Disney-Pixar films that will be newly branded as Disney+ Original.\nAs of Dec. 2, Disney+ had 86.8 million paid subscribers, and Disney expects that figure to balloon to 230 million to 260 million by the end of 2024. Including Hulu and ESPN+, total world-wide direct-to-consumer subscribers should reach 300 million to 350 million by the end of 2024.\nIt might be a stretch for Disney+ to top 100 subscribers in Q1, but plenty of analysts are looking for sustained growth.\nWhat to expect\nEarnings:Analysts polled by FactSet on average expect a loss of 33 cents a share, which would be a decline from $1.53 a share in the first quarter of 2019. The estimate has plummeted from a penny a share on Sept. 30.\nContributors to Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, are also projecting a loss of -33 cents a share on average.\nRevenue:Analysts on average expect Disney to report $15.89 billion in first-quarter revenue, according to FactSet, down from $20.86 billion the year before.\nEstimize contributors are expecting revenue of $15.89 billion.\nStock movement:Through Friday, shares are up 28.5% over the past 12 months, giving it a market value of $327 billion. The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.39%has increased 17% in the past year.\nWhat analysts are saying\n• “We now expect Disney+ to end FQ1 with 95m subs from 90m prior, and vs. 86.8m reported as of December 2, as we are encouraged by third-party data. According to Apptopia, Disney+ mobile MAUs have increased from 33m as of December 2 to 50m as of January 2, with substantial growth coming from Brazil and Mexico.” — JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani, while maintaining an overweight rating and hiking price target to $210 from $175 on Jan. 11.\n• “We were wrong… We were simply blown away [on investor day] by the depth of content being created for Disney+ (and the dollars behind it). Increasing content spend on Disney+ to over $8 billion by 2024 compared to a target of $4 billion set just a year ago is a dramatic acceleration.” — Lightshed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield, upgrading Disney’s rating to neutral from sell on Jan. 8.\n• “We maintain Buy on differentiated assets, direct-to-consumer momentum (Star/Star+ launches and more Disney+ markets in 2021; content investment should also benefit consumer products/licensing and Parks), and out-years post-COVID recovery at Parks (we expect\npent-up demand on leaner cost base).” — Truist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton, maintaining a buy rating and raising price target to $195 from $175 on Jan. 5.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Disney earnings preview: Can Disney+ maintain its torrid pace to sustain the Magic Kingdom?

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