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2021-04-27

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AMD: Start Looking Out

Summary AMD will be reporting its Q1 results on April 27. Analysts are estimating its revenue for t

AMD: Start Looking Out

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":377669932,"tweetId":"377669932","gmtCreate":1619524144826,"gmtModify":1634212072670,"author":{"id":3554953329440424,"authorId":3554953329440424,"authorIdStr":"3554953329440424","name":"rememberyan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670ea0a2149e5870a5acc308d8b7f32f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good analysis&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good analysis&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Good analysis","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377669932","repostId":1176949477,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176949477","pubTimestamp":1619492625,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176949477?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 11:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Start Looking Out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176949477","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q1 results on April 27.\nAnalysts are estimating its revenue for t","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>AMD will be reporting its Q1 results on April 27.</li>\n <li>Analysts are estimating its revenue for the period to come in at $3.21 billion.</li>\n <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate AMD on dips.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f9ef8163fc71ed3fcb6638ff221da5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Photo by sefa ozel/E+ via Getty Images\nAll eyes will be on AMD (AMD) when it reports its Q1 results&nbsp;on Tuesday. Investors would be curious to see how well its revenues grew on the back of its recently launched GPU and CPU line-ups. But in addition to tracking the chipmaker’s headline revenue figure, investors should also monitor its ASP and shipment growth figures, monitor its management's Q2 revenue guidance and track its segment revenue. These items will highlight AMD’s near-term growth prospects and are likely to impact its stock price in the near future.\nThe Demand Trends\nLet me start by saying that the demand for PCs and notebooks hasn’t cooled off just yet. Many were expecting the PC demand to taper off starting with 2021, but apparently that didn’t happen. In fact, on the contrary, PC shipments have surged year on year of late. The estimates vary depending on whom you ask but they have a commonality -- PC shipments are materially up year on year. For instance, Gartner and Canalys estimate that PC shipments rose by 35% and 56% year over year during Q1, respectively. So, I think it’s needless to say that PC chip manufacturers such as AMD, are experiencing industry tailwinds, which is likely going to boost the chipmaker's Q1 results.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00ba345e690d7f2d7d2f18e3aa551c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\">(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Canalys, Gartner)\nApart from that, AMD will be registering its first full quarter of Ryzen 5000-series desktop CPU and 6000-series GPU sales this time around. Both the product families have continually run out of stock since their general availability was announced a few months back. Interestingly, prominent computer hardware sites have actually published articles (such asthis) explaining the various means to buy these cards, before they run out of stock. This suggests that AMD is experiencing breakneck consumer demand for the said product families, which, in turn, might just catapult its computing and graphics revenue to new highs in its upcoming Q1 results.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d607756a1d79b09f0cae0642f12fc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">(Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings)\nMoreover, AMD seems to be enjoying favorable demand trends in its enterprise, embedded and semi-custom business (or EESC) as well. For starters, gaming console manufacturers that use AMD chips, haven’t been able to meet the breakneck customer&nbsp;demandand their consoles have been flying off the shelves. That’s definitely a big plus for all the parties involved. On the data center side, AMD has continually secured new enterprise deals with its EPYC servers (like&nbsp;with Amazon&nbsp;(AMZN)). It also&nbsp;launched&nbsp;19 new SKUs under its next-gen EPYC ‘Milan’ banner during the quarter to gain more traction amongst large enterprises such as data center operators. So, altogether, I expect its EESC sales to also rise sequentially and year over year, during Q1.\nI don’t have projections this time around as AMD-related supply chain channels that I regularly survey, have been low on inventories or they’ve remained out of stock. But my overall ‘guesstimate’ is that AMD’s revenue growth rate is likely to accelerate on a sequential as well as on a year-on-year basis. As far as analysts are concerned, a consensus of 28 analysts pegs AMD’s Q1 FY21 revenue at&nbsp;$3.21 billion– up 79.4% year over year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94a528fe8efdbbad2bb38a4b1d9f46e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\">(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Yahoo! Finance)\nNotice that analysts are projecting its revenue growth to reach multi-year highs in Q1 and Q2. But we need not stop just there. Readers and investors should also monitor AMD management's Q2 revenue guidance in its upcoming earnings report, to see if the company's top-brass, too, is equally bullish on their near-term growth prospects.\nVolume and Price Growth\nFor the uninitiated, there has been an ongoing wide-scale semiconductor shortage that has mired supply chains across the globe. It’s important to understand whether AMD is impacted by this shortage as well, how much of the demand is the company actually able to meet and at what price points is it catering to its consumer demand.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44557ea037c80a2bab6b6e1649022bc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\">(Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings)\nI believe AMD’s shipment and ASP (or Average Selling Price) growth figures are the best metrics that stand to reveal its supply-demand situation in Q1. There are actually several scenarios that could be at play here; let’s discuss them point by point with their implications. These scenarios are:\n<ol>\n <li>If AMD’s shipment growth decelerates but its ASP growth accelerates, then that would suggest that the chipmaker was supply constrained and its customers paid extra just to get their hands on limited inventory. This scenario also suggests that the chipmaker may be revenue-challenged in Q1 and perhaps in Q2 as well if its supplies don't improve soon.</li>\n <li>If AMD’s both shipment and ASP growth accelerate, then it would confirm that there’s an extraordinary consumer demand for its latest SKUs and that its customers are paying top dollar to get their hands on the newest and shiniest AMD hardware. This would imply that the chipmaker's financial growth momentum is accelerating.</li>\n <li>If AMD’s shipment growth accelerates but its ASP growth decelerates, then that would suggest that the chipmaker is meeting the heightened customer demand but is not able to monetize this demand dynamic very well.</li>\n <li>If AMD’s both ASP and shipment growth figures decelerate, then that would suggest that the chipmaker is sitting on a dud family of products. This seems least likely since we know that prices for AMD’s SKUs have&nbsp;risen&nbsp;substantially, at least in the retail market.</li>\n</ol>\nHaving discussed all the major scenarios, I personally expect AMD to report acceleration in its ASP and shipment growth figures during Q1. Consumers are paying top dollar for its SKUs which should ideally boost the company’s ASPs. At the same time, AMD’s latest SKUs have frequently gone&nbsp;out of stock&nbsp;during the quarter which is a good indicator of breakneck consumer demand. But that’s just my opinion. Readers should closely listen to AMD management's comments around their supply-demand situation on its upcoming earnings call, to gain a firm understanding of its sales momentum and its near-term growth trajectory.\nFinal Thoughts\nAnalysts are expecting AMD's revenue growth rate to accelerate to its multi-year highs and yet, the stock is down almost 15% from its January highs. This disparity in bullish analyst estimates and a lackluster stock price movement has actually made AMD a little more affordable. This is evident in AMD’s 1 year forward PS multiple, which factors in its current stock price and analyst estimates for FY21, and has dropped considerably over the recent months.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace74881d9fb659d02c55765d40be675\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\">Data by YCharts\nSo, in light of healthy demand trends, favorable industry tailwinds, bullish analyst estimates and because of a moderation in its valuation, I’m bullish on AMD. Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to consider accumulating the chipmaker's shares on dips. Good Luck!","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Start Looking Out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Start Looking Out\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 11:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421357-amd-start-looking-out>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q1 results on April 27.\nAnalysts are estimating its revenue for the period to come in at $3.21 billion.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421357-amd-start-looking-out\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421357-amd-start-looking-out","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1176949477","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q1 results on April 27.\nAnalysts are estimating its revenue for the period to come in at $3.21 billion.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate AMD on dips.\n\nPhoto by sefa ozel/E+ via Getty Images\nAll eyes will be on AMD (AMD) when it reports its Q1 results on Tuesday. Investors would be curious to see how well its revenues grew on the back of its recently launched GPU and CPU line-ups. But in addition to tracking the chipmaker’s headline revenue figure, investors should also monitor its ASP and shipment growth figures, monitor its management's Q2 revenue guidance and track its segment revenue. These items will highlight AMD’s near-term growth prospects and are likely to impact its stock price in the near future.\nThe Demand Trends\nLet me start by saying that the demand for PCs and notebooks hasn’t cooled off just yet. Many were expecting the PC demand to taper off starting with 2021, but apparently that didn’t happen. In fact, on the contrary, PC shipments have surged year on year of late. The estimates vary depending on whom you ask but they have a commonality -- PC shipments are materially up year on year. For instance, Gartner and Canalys estimate that PC shipments rose by 35% and 56% year over year during Q1, respectively. So, I think it’s needless to say that PC chip manufacturers such as AMD, are experiencing industry tailwinds, which is likely going to boost the chipmaker's Q1 results.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Canalys, Gartner)\nApart from that, AMD will be registering its first full quarter of Ryzen 5000-series desktop CPU and 6000-series GPU sales this time around. Both the product families have continually run out of stock since their general availability was announced a few months back. Interestingly, prominent computer hardware sites have actually published articles (such asthis) explaining the various means to buy these cards, before they run out of stock. This suggests that AMD is experiencing breakneck consumer demand for the said product families, which, in turn, might just catapult its computing and graphics revenue to new highs in its upcoming Q1 results.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings)\nMoreover, AMD seems to be enjoying favorable demand trends in its enterprise, embedded and semi-custom business (or EESC) as well. For starters, gaming console manufacturers that use AMD chips, haven’t been able to meet the breakneck customer demandand their consoles have been flying off the shelves. That’s definitely a big plus for all the parties involved. On the data center side, AMD has continually secured new enterprise deals with its EPYC servers (like with Amazon (AMZN)). It also launched 19 new SKUs under its next-gen EPYC ‘Milan’ banner during the quarter to gain more traction amongst large enterprises such as data center operators. So, altogether, I expect its EESC sales to also rise sequentially and year over year, during Q1.\nI don’t have projections this time around as AMD-related supply chain channels that I regularly survey, have been low on inventories or they’ve remained out of stock. But my overall ‘guesstimate’ is that AMD’s revenue growth rate is likely to accelerate on a sequential as well as on a year-on-year basis. As far as analysts are concerned, a consensus of 28 analysts pegs AMD’s Q1 FY21 revenue at $3.21 billion– up 79.4% year over year.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Yahoo! Finance)\nNotice that analysts are projecting its revenue growth to reach multi-year highs in Q1 and Q2. But we need not stop just there. Readers and investors should also monitor AMD management's Q2 revenue guidance in its upcoming earnings report, to see if the company's top-brass, too, is equally bullish on their near-term growth prospects.\nVolume and Price Growth\nFor the uninitiated, there has been an ongoing wide-scale semiconductor shortage that has mired supply chains across the globe. It’s important to understand whether AMD is impacted by this shortage as well, how much of the demand is the company actually able to meet and at what price points is it catering to its consumer demand.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings)\nI believe AMD’s shipment and ASP (or Average Selling Price) growth figures are the best metrics that stand to reveal its supply-demand situation in Q1. There are actually several scenarios that could be at play here; let’s discuss them point by point with their implications. These scenarios are:\n\nIf AMD’s shipment growth decelerates but its ASP growth accelerates, then that would suggest that the chipmaker was supply constrained and its customers paid extra just to get their hands on limited inventory. This scenario also suggests that the chipmaker may be revenue-challenged in Q1 and perhaps in Q2 as well if its supplies don't improve soon.\nIf AMD’s both shipment and ASP growth accelerate, then it would confirm that there’s an extraordinary consumer demand for its latest SKUs and that its customers are paying top dollar to get their hands on the newest and shiniest AMD hardware. This would imply that the chipmaker's financial growth momentum is accelerating.\nIf AMD’s shipment growth accelerates but its ASP growth decelerates, then that would suggest that the chipmaker is meeting the heightened customer demand but is not able to monetize this demand dynamic very well.\nIf AMD’s both ASP and shipment growth figures decelerate, then that would suggest that the chipmaker is sitting on a dud family of products. This seems least likely since we know that prices for AMD’s SKUs have risen substantially, at least in the retail market.\n\nHaving discussed all the major scenarios, I personally expect AMD to report acceleration in its ASP and shipment growth figures during Q1. Consumers are paying top dollar for its SKUs which should ideally boost the company’s ASPs. At the same time, AMD’s latest SKUs have frequently gone out of stock during the quarter which is a good indicator of breakneck consumer demand. But that’s just my opinion. Readers should closely listen to AMD management's comments around their supply-demand situation on its upcoming earnings call, to gain a firm understanding of its sales momentum and its near-term growth trajectory.\nFinal Thoughts\nAnalysts are expecting AMD's revenue growth rate to accelerate to its multi-year highs and yet, the stock is down almost 15% from its January highs. This disparity in bullish analyst estimates and a lackluster stock price movement has actually made AMD a little more affordable. This is evident in AMD’s 1 year forward PS multiple, which factors in its current stock price and analyst estimates for FY21, and has dropped considerably over the recent months.\nData by YCharts\nSo, in light of healthy demand trends, favorable industry tailwinds, bullish analyst estimates and because of a moderation in its valuation, I’m bullish on AMD. Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to consider accumulating the chipmaker's shares on dips. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}