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2021-04-27

A Stock Market Storm May Be Brewing Over The Horizon

Summary The small cap stocks have been diverging lately from the large caps. The last few times the

A Stock Market Storm May Be Brewing Over The Horizon

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":377306222,"tweetId":"377306222","gmtCreate":1619493736766,"gmtModify":1634212297429,"author":{"id":3570709291573644,"idStr":"3570709291573644","authorId":3570709291573644,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hi</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hi</p></body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377306222","repostId":1134442388,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134442388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619493559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134442388?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Storm May Be Brewing Over The Horizon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134442388","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe small cap stocks have been diverging lately from the large caps.\nThe last few times the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The small cap stocks have been diverging lately from the large caps.</li>\n <li>The last few times the S&amp;P 500 and Russell have diverged it has led to sharp pullbacks.</li>\n <li>The divergence this time around seems to be bigger than normal.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/097583a7e3f8a7c45f6bb530489bfa14\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by YinYang/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Since the end of March, stocks have risen sharply despite the usual options expiration sell-off that we have grown to expect,which did not occur. But that doesn't mean there is an all-clear sign. This region around 4,130 to 4,190 in the S&amp;P 500 has acted as a forceful resistance level as was expected. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ composite and the Russell 2000 have failed to make new highs.</p>\n<p>The divergence seems notable, and the divergence in market breadth, with the percentage of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 above their 50-day moving average well ahead of the NASDAQ Composite Russell 2000. The divergence suggests that the market is being carried higher by the biggest companies, while the small- and mid-cap stocks struggle.</p>\n<p>The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average in the S&amp;P 500 is now almost 90%. That is compared to just 61% in the Russell 2000 and just 65.5% in the NASDAQ Composite. While the data for the Nasdaq doesn't go back very far. The data for the Russell 2000 does. The difference between the percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average in the S&amp;P 500 and the Russell 2000 is jaw-dropping. With a difference of nearly 28% between the two, it is the widest since 2007.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aedc58c7b5628d7b7b1a65f0675cbbc6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>It isn't as if the stocks in the Russell are trying to play a game of catch-up either. The stocks in the Russell 2000 are trending lower, while the S&amp;P 500 stocks are trending higher. It is something that usually does not happen.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243e7773f1fc001054d7a6dbf0327b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>The last time something similar happened was in June 2014. A more than 50% rally preceded it in the Russell 2000 from November 2012 until the spring of 2014. What came after was nearly 2-year of sideways trading in the Russell until November 2016.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f9e94791df2d13d0ec21ce7aab6bf64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>The same thing occurred in the S&amp;P 500, with the index rising about 9% from June 2014 until November 2016, and mixed with a lot of volatility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00119ce1ec4dce751eb94b63e63492d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>Additionally, several times in recent history have proven ominous when the path of the Russell 2000 has diverged from the S&amp;P 500. The Fall of 2018, the Summer of 2019, the Winter of 2020, and August of 2020, and presently. Three out of the four led to declines of about 10% or more. Of course, in the Fall of 2018, it was a decline of about 20%, and in the Winter of 2020, a decline of more than 30%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc1ae8375f8628f0b6e493f83f175cd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\"></p>\n<p>There are some similar types of divergence taking place in three major Asian markets, China, Hong Kong, and Japan. Recently, the Hang Seng index has dropped more than 6% since the middle of February. This, as the Shanghai Composite, has dropped by more than 8%, a very vast divergence from the S&amp;P 500 gain of more than 12% since the end of March. The Nikkei has also struggled, falling by around 5% over the same time period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6355d936df3ce62c336d6b0420e0b602\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>The small-caps struggles may be telling us a lot about where the market is to go from here, and if the past can act as a predictor of the future, then there might be a volatile ride in store. It could even be why there has been a pick-up in options activity in the VIX calls of late.</p>\n<p>Over the past few days, the open interest levels for the VIX June 16 45 calls have risen by around 43,000 contracts. The data shows the majority of these calls have been bought. It doesn't mean that that VIX will rise over 43 by the middle of June; it certainly could. But seem to be an easy and cheap way for a trader to get long volatility. If the VIX should spike before the middle of June, the value of the calls is likely to rise and create a profitable trade.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264abf82f344d5b3d55a81f0c42f547b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"></p>\n<p>All of these signs seem to suggest a change in market tone is likely coming, and it may just be a matter of time before it happens. Based on how these options trades are being placed, it seems that change is likely to happen very soon.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Storm May Be Brewing Over The Horizon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Storm May Be Brewing Over The Horizon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 11:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421367-stock-market-storm-may-be-brewing-over-horizon><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe small cap stocks have been diverging lately from the large caps.\nThe last few times the S&P 500 and Russell have diverged it has led to sharp pullbacks.\nThe divergence this time around ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421367-stock-market-storm-may-be-brewing-over-horizon\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421367-stock-market-storm-may-be-brewing-over-horizon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1134442388","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe small cap stocks have been diverging lately from the large caps.\nThe last few times the S&P 500 and Russell have diverged it has led to sharp pullbacks.\nThe divergence this time around seems to be bigger than normal.\n\nPhoto by YinYang/iStock via Getty Images\nSince the end of March, stocks have risen sharply despite the usual options expiration sell-off that we have grown to expect,which did not occur. But that doesn't mean there is an all-clear sign. This region around 4,130 to 4,190 in the S&P 500 has acted as a forceful resistance level as was expected. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ composite and the Russell 2000 have failed to make new highs.\nThe divergence seems notable, and the divergence in market breadth, with the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50-day moving average well ahead of the NASDAQ Composite Russell 2000. The divergence suggests that the market is being carried higher by the biggest companies, while the small- and mid-cap stocks struggle.\nThe percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average in the S&P 500 is now almost 90%. That is compared to just 61% in the Russell 2000 and just 65.5% in the NASDAQ Composite. While the data for the Nasdaq doesn't go back very far. The data for the Russell 2000 does. The difference between the percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average in the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 is jaw-dropping. With a difference of nearly 28% between the two, it is the widest since 2007.\n\nIt isn't as if the stocks in the Russell are trying to play a game of catch-up either. The stocks in the Russell 2000 are trending lower, while the S&P 500 stocks are trending higher. It is something that usually does not happen.\n\nThe last time something similar happened was in June 2014. A more than 50% rally preceded it in the Russell 2000 from November 2012 until the spring of 2014. What came after was nearly 2-year of sideways trading in the Russell until November 2016.\n\nThe same thing occurred in the S&P 500, with the index rising about 9% from June 2014 until November 2016, and mixed with a lot of volatility.\n\nAdditionally, several times in recent history have proven ominous when the path of the Russell 2000 has diverged from the S&P 500. The Fall of 2018, the Summer of 2019, the Winter of 2020, and August of 2020, and presently. Three out of the four led to declines of about 10% or more. Of course, in the Fall of 2018, it was a decline of about 20%, and in the Winter of 2020, a decline of more than 30%.\n\nThere are some similar types of divergence taking place in three major Asian markets, China, Hong Kong, and Japan. Recently, the Hang Seng index has dropped more than 6% since the middle of February. This, as the Shanghai Composite, has dropped by more than 8%, a very vast divergence from the S&P 500 gain of more than 12% since the end of March. The Nikkei has also struggled, falling by around 5% over the same time period.\n\nThe small-caps struggles may be telling us a lot about where the market is to go from here, and if the past can act as a predictor of the future, then there might be a volatile ride in store. It could even be why there has been a pick-up in options activity in the VIX calls of late.\nOver the past few days, the open interest levels for the VIX June 16 45 calls have risen by around 43,000 contracts. The data shows the majority of these calls have been bought. It doesn't mean that that VIX will rise over 43 by the middle of June; it certainly could. But seem to be an easy and cheap way for a trader to get long volatility. If the VIX should spike before the middle of June, the value of the calls is likely to rise and create a profitable trade.\n\nAll of these signs seem to suggest a change in market tone is likely coming, and it may just be a matter of time before it happens. Based on how these options trades are being placed, it seems that change is likely to happen very soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}