The stimulus package already p_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

LGdoWonder
2021-03-04

The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.

Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?

The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t

Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

推荐
最新

暂无评论

热议股票

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":364543632,"tweetId":"364543632","gmtCreate":1614867499626,"gmtModify":1703482214165,"author":{"id":3574573223146006,"idStr":"3574573223146006","authorId":3574573223146006,"authorIdStr":"3574573223146006","name":"LGdoWonder","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70da32ba22aa762f05eb07e4c5158c6a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.</p></body></html>","text":"The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364543632","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"<p><b>The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.</b></p>\n<p>Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.</p>\n<p>On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\"><b>Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed</b></p>\n<p>On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.</p>\n<p>For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.</p>\n<p>More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.</p>\n<p>Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.</p>\n<p>As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.</p>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-04 20:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/><strong>Vantage Point</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":94,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}