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2021-04-09

Long term is the way

Tesla: Why Its Deliveries Beat Means Nothing

Summary Tesla beat sales estimates during Q1, which was a surprise to most. But in the grand scheme

Tesla: Why Its Deliveries Beat Means Nothing

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":348818767,"tweetId":"348818767","gmtCreate":1617907010759,"gmtModify":1634295842017,"author":{"id":3576132871598457,"idStr":"3576132871598457","authorId":3576132871598457,"authorIdStr":"3576132871598457","name":"Kaesonlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfbb39017d97aaac2eaa2f63304059a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Long term is the way</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Long term is the way</body></html>","text":"Long term is the way","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348818767","repostId":1101689800,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101689800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617896048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101689800?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-08 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Why Its Deliveries Beat Means Nothing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101689800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla beat sales estimates during Q1, which was a surprise to most.\nBut in the grand scheme","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla beat sales estimates during Q1, which was a surprise to most.</li>\n <li>But in the grand scheme of things, this doesn't really change anything. At around $700 billion, Tesla is too expensive.</li>\n <li>Looking closer, Tesla may actually have lost more market share in Q1, despite growing sales meaningfully year over year. Many peers grew their deliveries much more than Tesla.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b41a4e8e9d9664a78be68e0649d0dec5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nTesla (TSLA) beat delivery estimates for the first quarter, showing strong growth year over year. A closer look, however, shows that this may not be too significant, as Tesla possibly even lost market share despite the solid year-over-year performance. Overall, beating sales estimates by a couple of thousand cars doesn't change the fact that shares are looking very expensive and are, I believe, quite overvalued.\nTesla's Q1 Deliveries Beat\nFirst things first, Tesla should be applauded for delivering not only new record vehicle sales for a fiscal Q1 but also a small sequential increase in deliveries, which is not typical for the Q4-Q1 comparison. Tesla also managed to&nbsp;easily beat&nbsp;delivery estimates, which was, again, a strong showing from the company on an operational basis. I mention these positives because my rather bearish position regarding the company's stock is not based on a belief that the company is weak operationally, or that it will go bankrupt, or anything like that. Instead, I think that Tesla is a leading player in the growing EV market, but that its stock is just way too expensive. In general, solid to strong operational results have to be expected from Tesla, as well as from most other EV players, but that doesn't necessarily change the thesis -- Tesla can still be way overvalued, even if it churns out compelling results operationally.\nNevertheless, it makes sense to take a deeper dive into the delivery numbers and what they mean for Tesla. Despite the fact that Tesla was able to grow deliveries by a highly compelling 110%, not everything is perfect when it comes to deliveries. Three key points come to mind:\n1. Deliveries outpaced production\nThis is a positive when it comes to cash flow generation, as Tesla liquidated some of its assets (finished products) and turned them into cash. However, production standing at 180,000 for the quarter also means that Tesla is, from what we see right now, not on track for the production of&nbsp;1 million cars in 2021. Instead, Tesla would produce (and presumably sell) a little more than 700,000 cars in 2021 at the pace shown in Q1. If we assume that further ramping of production in China will add some additional capacity, then 800,000 cars for 2021 seem like a realistic and achievable estimate. Tesla would have to produce more than 270,000 cars during each of the next three quarters to hit a production target of 1 million cars this year -- compared to the 180,000 cars produced in Q1, that seems like a stretch, at least to me.\n2. Sales moved to lower-priced vehicles\nThis wasn't a large surprise, due to the model refreshes for the S and the X. But still, most analysts had estimated that Tesla would deliver about 5,000 of the two higher-priced models, combined, whereas deliveries totaled just 2,000 for those models in Q1. This naturally means that average sales prices will be lower than what the analyst community had modeled and that gross margins will likely also not be great in the first quarter.\n3. How meaningful is Tesla's Q1 growth in deliveries?\nTesla is a key player in the global EV market, and that market is experiencing a lot of growth, due to a range of factors, including government incentives. It thus has to be expected that Tesla grows its sales meaningfully on a year-over-year basis, this alone is not great news. To gauge how well Tesla is doing, we can look at market share trends, i.e. the answer to the questionIs Tesla growing faster than its peers?\nTotal global EV sales for Q1 are not published yet, so there is no way to find a definitive answer to that question. We can, however, look at how the market performed in January and February, as we have global EV sales data for these two months.\nInsideEVs reports that total global EV sales in January totaled more than&nbsp;320,000, and that total global EV sales in February totaled&nbsp;270,000. These numbers were up by 112% and 136% year over year, respectively. We can thus deduct that the global EV market grew by around 120% during January and February. It seems, to me, reasonable to assume that growth in March was likely at a similar level, although we don't know official numbers yet. If that is the case, then Tesla's sales, which were up 110% in Q1,grew slower than the market. In other words, if the very strong EV sales trends in January and February held on through March, then Tesla has actually lost market share in Q1, despite delivering a sizeable year-over-year increase in deliveries.\nOther EV Companies Are Outpacing Tesla's Growth\nThis aligns with the fact that several major EV players have delivered stronger sales growth than Tesla in Q1. Let's look at a couple of those:\nNio (NIO) has delivered 20,000 vehicles in Q1, which was up by a massive423%year over year. Sure, this growth was based on a rather low basis in Q1 2020, but still, it is obvious that NIO, one of the highest-valued pure-play EV companies, has gained massive market share in Q1 -- unlike Tesla. The company was not alone, though, as other Chinese EV players delivered very strong sales gains as well. XPeng (XPEV), for example, saw its EV sales rise by487%year over year during Q1 and is now at a run rate of well ahead of 50,000 vehicles a year. XPeng is growing from a lower base compared to Tesla, just like NIO, but it is still a mathematical fact that both of these companies have experienced significant market share gains, while Tesla hasn't. Li Auto (LI), another Chinese EV player, also saw its deliveries rise more than 300% year over year.\nTesla's market share is not only under attack from these Chinese players, however, as legacy auto companies are also gaining traction. Stellantis (STLA), which includes Chrysler, Fiat, and Citroen, is seeking to sell 400,000 EVs this year, about three times as much compared to 2020. It is not guaranteed that the company will hit that goal, but when we assume that the actual result will be more or less in the forecasted range, then Stellantis should be able to deliver a far superior growth rate compared to Tesla. A 200% increase in EV sales for Tesla during 2021 is basically impossible, as this would require EV sales of about 1.5 million in 2021, which is far ahead of even quite bullish estimates.\nVolkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) is another legacy auto player that seeks to grow faster than Tesla this year. The company already managed to do that last year, delivering EV sales growth of 200%, but Bloombergreportsthat the company plans to double its EV sales again this year -- something Tesla will likely not achieve, as 60%-70% growth versus 2020 seems more likely for the current king of EVs.\nWhat Does It Mean For Tesla?\nThe fact that Tesla was able to perform somewhat better than most had estimated in Q1 is a positive, but in the grand scheme of things, it won't matter much. Selling a couple of thousand cars more than expected is nothing that should result in any large moves in the underlying value of a company that is valued at close to $700 billion. Since Tesla is priced for the sale of millions of cars a year, 10,000 in either direction shouldn't be a large factor for its valuation, I believe.\nConsidering the fact that Tesla has most likely lost market share in Q1, as the EV market in total has grown more than Tesla's deliveries, and that legacy auto companies and new EV startups are on track to outpace Tesla's growth in 2021, Tesla looks quite overvalued:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924bf511703de1645bf04a5b7f308d85\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\">Data by YCharts\nTesla trades at a premium compared to NIO and Li, which both are growing at a much faster pace than Tesla. I personally think that even those are likely overvalued, but no matter how you stand on that, Tesla is clearly more expensive despite delivering lower growth.\nComparing Tesla to Stellantis or Volkswagen isn't easy, as the latter two sell a large amount of non-EV cars. But if Volkswagen, for example, would be valued at the valuation Tesla is valued at for its EV business, even with the legacy business (which does $10+ billion a year in profits) given for free, Volkswagen's shares would have to rise by hundreds of percent. Most will agree that this valuation would be way too high for Volkswagen's shares, so it seems reasonable to state that Tesla doesn't deserve a valuation this high, either.\nTakeaway\nAm I bearish on Tesla's operations? No, I think the company will continue to grow, which can be expected from most players in a growth market. But Tesla won't have the EV market alone, as more and more startups and legacy players are pushing new EV models into the market, at different price points, attacking Tesla from both the top end (LUCIDM) (CCIV) and the bottom end (Stellantis, VW, etc.).\nTesla is not the highest-growth player in its industry by far, has been losing market share in recent years, and yet, it is trading at an ultra-expensive valuation -- even higher than that of NIO, Li, etc. which are growing much faster.\nObvious growth tailwinds for an industry do not necessarily translate to future gains for equity investors in said industry, and I think that will be the case with Tesla. The company will continue to grow, although market share battles will prevent it from becoming gigantic in a short period of time. The current valuation is pricing in too much growth, though, and I don't see shares as an attractive investment right here. This may change if Tesla comes up with something immensely profitable that improves its market position by a lot, and I don't at all advise anyone to short the stock. But right here, from what I see, shares are just too expensive relative to what Tesla is delivering right now.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Why Its Deliveries Beat Means Nothing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Why Its Deliveries Beat Means Nothing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418153-tesla-why-its-deliveries-beat-means-nothing>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nTesla beat sales estimates during Q1, which was a surprise to most.\nBut in the grand scheme of things, this doesn't really change anything. At around $700 billion, Tesla is too expensive.\n...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418153-tesla-why-its-deliveries-beat-means-nothing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418153-tesla-why-its-deliveries-beat-means-nothing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1101689800","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla beat sales estimates during Q1, which was a surprise to most.\nBut in the grand scheme of things, this doesn't really change anything. At around $700 billion, Tesla is too expensive.\nLooking closer, Tesla may actually have lost more market share in Q1, despite growing sales meaningfully year over year. Many peers grew their deliveries much more than Tesla.\n\nPhoto by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nTesla (TSLA) beat delivery estimates for the first quarter, showing strong growth year over year. A closer look, however, shows that this may not be too significant, as Tesla possibly even lost market share despite the solid year-over-year performance. Overall, beating sales estimates by a couple of thousand cars doesn't change the fact that shares are looking very expensive and are, I believe, quite overvalued.\nTesla's Q1 Deliveries Beat\nFirst things first, Tesla should be applauded for delivering not only new record vehicle sales for a fiscal Q1 but also a small sequential increase in deliveries, which is not typical for the Q4-Q1 comparison. Tesla also managed to easily beat delivery estimates, which was, again, a strong showing from the company on an operational basis. I mention these positives because my rather bearish position regarding the company's stock is not based on a belief that the company is weak operationally, or that it will go bankrupt, or anything like that. Instead, I think that Tesla is a leading player in the growing EV market, but that its stock is just way too expensive. In general, solid to strong operational results have to be expected from Tesla, as well as from most other EV players, but that doesn't necessarily change the thesis -- Tesla can still be way overvalued, even if it churns out compelling results operationally.\nNevertheless, it makes sense to take a deeper dive into the delivery numbers and what they mean for Tesla. Despite the fact that Tesla was able to grow deliveries by a highly compelling 110%, not everything is perfect when it comes to deliveries. Three key points come to mind:\n1. Deliveries outpaced production\nThis is a positive when it comes to cash flow generation, as Tesla liquidated some of its assets (finished products) and turned them into cash. However, production standing at 180,000 for the quarter also means that Tesla is, from what we see right now, not on track for the production of 1 million cars in 2021. Instead, Tesla would produce (and presumably sell) a little more than 700,000 cars in 2021 at the pace shown in Q1. If we assume that further ramping of production in China will add some additional capacity, then 800,000 cars for 2021 seem like a realistic and achievable estimate. Tesla would have to produce more than 270,000 cars during each of the next three quarters to hit a production target of 1 million cars this year -- compared to the 180,000 cars produced in Q1, that seems like a stretch, at least to me.\n2. Sales moved to lower-priced vehicles\nThis wasn't a large surprise, due to the model refreshes for the S and the X. But still, most analysts had estimated that Tesla would deliver about 5,000 of the two higher-priced models, combined, whereas deliveries totaled just 2,000 for those models in Q1. This naturally means that average sales prices will be lower than what the analyst community had modeled and that gross margins will likely also not be great in the first quarter.\n3. How meaningful is Tesla's Q1 growth in deliveries?\nTesla is a key player in the global EV market, and that market is experiencing a lot of growth, due to a range of factors, including government incentives. It thus has to be expected that Tesla grows its sales meaningfully on a year-over-year basis, this alone is not great news. To gauge how well Tesla is doing, we can look at market share trends, i.e. the answer to the questionIs Tesla growing faster than its peers?\nTotal global EV sales for Q1 are not published yet, so there is no way to find a definitive answer to that question. We can, however, look at how the market performed in January and February, as we have global EV sales data for these two months.\nInsideEVs reports that total global EV sales in January totaled more than 320,000, and that total global EV sales in February totaled 270,000. These numbers were up by 112% and 136% year over year, respectively. We can thus deduct that the global EV market grew by around 120% during January and February. It seems, to me, reasonable to assume that growth in March was likely at a similar level, although we don't know official numbers yet. If that is the case, then Tesla's sales, which were up 110% in Q1,grew slower than the market. In other words, if the very strong EV sales trends in January and February held on through March, then Tesla has actually lost market share in Q1, despite delivering a sizeable year-over-year increase in deliveries.\nOther EV Companies Are Outpacing Tesla's Growth\nThis aligns with the fact that several major EV players have delivered stronger sales growth than Tesla in Q1. Let's look at a couple of those:\nNio (NIO) has delivered 20,000 vehicles in Q1, which was up by a massive423%year over year. Sure, this growth was based on a rather low basis in Q1 2020, but still, it is obvious that NIO, one of the highest-valued pure-play EV companies, has gained massive market share in Q1 -- unlike Tesla. The company was not alone, though, as other Chinese EV players delivered very strong sales gains as well. XPeng (XPEV), for example, saw its EV sales rise by487%year over year during Q1 and is now at a run rate of well ahead of 50,000 vehicles a year. XPeng is growing from a lower base compared to Tesla, just like NIO, but it is still a mathematical fact that both of these companies have experienced significant market share gains, while Tesla hasn't. Li Auto (LI), another Chinese EV player, also saw its deliveries rise more than 300% year over year.\nTesla's market share is not only under attack from these Chinese players, however, as legacy auto companies are also gaining traction. Stellantis (STLA), which includes Chrysler, Fiat, and Citroen, is seeking to sell 400,000 EVs this year, about three times as much compared to 2020. It is not guaranteed that the company will hit that goal, but when we assume that the actual result will be more or less in the forecasted range, then Stellantis should be able to deliver a far superior growth rate compared to Tesla. A 200% increase in EV sales for Tesla during 2021 is basically impossible, as this would require EV sales of about 1.5 million in 2021, which is far ahead of even quite bullish estimates.\nVolkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) is another legacy auto player that seeks to grow faster than Tesla this year. The company already managed to do that last year, delivering EV sales growth of 200%, but Bloombergreportsthat the company plans to double its EV sales again this year -- something Tesla will likely not achieve, as 60%-70% growth versus 2020 seems more likely for the current king of EVs.\nWhat Does It Mean For Tesla?\nThe fact that Tesla was able to perform somewhat better than most had estimated in Q1 is a positive, but in the grand scheme of things, it won't matter much. Selling a couple of thousand cars more than expected is nothing that should result in any large moves in the underlying value of a company that is valued at close to $700 billion. Since Tesla is priced for the sale of millions of cars a year, 10,000 in either direction shouldn't be a large factor for its valuation, I believe.\nConsidering the fact that Tesla has most likely lost market share in Q1, as the EV market in total has grown more than Tesla's deliveries, and that legacy auto companies and new EV startups are on track to outpace Tesla's growth in 2021, Tesla looks quite overvalued:\nData by YCharts\nTesla trades at a premium compared to NIO and Li, which both are growing at a much faster pace than Tesla. I personally think that even those are likely overvalued, but no matter how you stand on that, Tesla is clearly more expensive despite delivering lower growth.\nComparing Tesla to Stellantis or Volkswagen isn't easy, as the latter two sell a large amount of non-EV cars. But if Volkswagen, for example, would be valued at the valuation Tesla is valued at for its EV business, even with the legacy business (which does $10+ billion a year in profits) given for free, Volkswagen's shares would have to rise by hundreds of percent. Most will agree that this valuation would be way too high for Volkswagen's shares, so it seems reasonable to state that Tesla doesn't deserve a valuation this high, either.\nTakeaway\nAm I bearish on Tesla's operations? No, I think the company will continue to grow, which can be expected from most players in a growth market. But Tesla won't have the EV market alone, as more and more startups and legacy players are pushing new EV models into the market, at different price points, attacking Tesla from both the top end (LUCIDM) (CCIV) and the bottom end (Stellantis, VW, etc.).\nTesla is not the highest-growth player in its industry by far, has been losing market share in recent years, and yet, it is trading at an ultra-expensive valuation -- even higher than that of NIO, Li, etc. which are growing much faster.\nObvious growth tailwinds for an industry do not necessarily translate to future gains for equity investors in said industry, and I think that will be the case with Tesla. The company will continue to grow, although market share battles will prevent it from becoming gigantic in a short period of time. The current valuation is pricing in too much growth, though, and I don't see shares as an attractive investment right here. This may change if Tesla comes up with something immensely profitable that improves its market position by a lot, and I don't at all advise anyone to short the stock. But right here, from what I see, shares are just too expensive relative to what Tesla is delivering right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}