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2021-04-10

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Apple: Not Exactly A Bargain Yet

Summary Apple is still expensive despite a $20 dip in the stock price. The company is forecast to r

Apple: Not Exactly A Bargain Yet

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":346136878,"tweetId":"346136878","gmtCreate":1618012654194,"gmtModify":1634295275596,"author":{"id":3576837852009464,"idStr":"3576837852009464","authorId":3576837852009464,"authorIdStr":"3576837852009464","name":"ElvinPork","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c547b04d8ba5dc89fc95bfef47aeac","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Free AAPL STOCK :)</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Free AAPL STOCK :)</p></body></html>","text":"Free AAPL STOCK :)","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346136878","repostId":1184438574,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184438574","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617779099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184438574?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 15:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Not Exactly A Bargain Yet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184438574","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is still expensive despite a $20 dip in the stock price.\nThe company is forecast to r","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is still expensive despite a $20 dip in the stock price.</li>\n <li>The company is forecast to resume growth below the 10% rate starting in FY22.</li>\n <li>Investors appear willing to assign far too much value to hyped products such as the Apple Car.</li>\n <li>Investors should avoid Apple above $125.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64934a1983fce9df267d4976fcee4776\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\"><span>Photo by Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple</b>(AAPL) fell more than $20 from the all-time highs reached back in January, but the stock isn't exactly a bargain down here at $126. The whole tech sector reached such stretched valuations that recent dips don't even bring the stocks back into value territory. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;remains more Neutral on Apple due to limited prospects for the fast growth needed to justify the current stock price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5308bbc5fec55e27f9b1908be6e1971e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"><span>Image Source: Apple website</span></p>\n<p><b>Back To Normal</b></p>\n<p>Throughout all of FY21, Apple will go through a period of reporting accelerated growth due to easy COVID-19 comps and the 5G iPhone upgrade cycle. Some of the extra growth is due to COVID-19 pushing out demand from the March quarter last year or shutdowns delaying production of the iPhone 12 until the December quarter and missing FY20 sales. A big portion of the growth is due to the elevated revenues from the new cycle due to 5G that won't repeat in FY22.</p>\n<p>What ultimately matters is that growth will normalize back below a 10% annual clip in FY22. If anything, the elevated stock price reduces the terminal EPS growth rates as stock buybacks don't go as far and Apple no longer has the excessive net cash sitting at only&nbsp;$84 billion&nbsp;now. At a $2 trillion market cap, the net cash can only repurchase 4% of the outstanding shares.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd7ca9ee5ef16c0421675780f67a2c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha earnings estimates page</span></p>\n<p>Due to the December quarter last year being boosted by iPhone 12 sales, analysts forecast the accelerated growth rates ending in the September quarter this year. In essence, the start of FY22 is now forecasted to coincide with slightly lower earnings followed by normalized earnings growth set to remain below 10% going forward. The stock still trades at 22x FY25 EPS estimates despite the limited growth forecast after this fiscal year.</p>\n<p>While the market likes to talk about strong growth trends for Apple whether via Services or new product hype, the analyst community doesn't actually see the growth materializing.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Car Hype</b></p>\n<p>The only real way to justify the current valuation is to assume a large valuation for future products not even close to starting production now. The major area of hype is the all-electric, Apple Car forecast for&nbsp;production in 2024&nbsp;at the earliest and maybe 2028 to be realistic.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst David Vogt assigned a&nbsp;whopping $14 per share&nbsp;price target for the Apple Car. The analyst is assigning a $235 billion valuation to a product that isn't even in production and the tech giant hasn't&nbsp;even found a partner yet&nbsp;to produce the cars for a company that doesn't typically get involved in manufacturing. Possible auto manufacturers such as Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF) and Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF) don't appear still in talks with Apple.</p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) is a world class EV manufacturer and the stock just last year passed a $250 billion market cap. The company was generating $25 billion in sales at the time and is on pace to $48 billion in sales this year and over $60 billion next year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f563d9932e537cb4cc6b74332276e472\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>UBS is assigning a valuation to the Apple Car similar to the most valued company in the sector after years of developing and producing market-leading vehicles. Apple hasn't shown any sign the company can produce something outside of the tech space and Tesla will have another three to five years of production lead to extend their dominance in the space.</p>\n<p>Without the car hype, even UBS only has the stock worth $128 after the price hike. Currently, Apple trades for $126 providing limited upside without assigning massive amounts of valuation to the car segment.</p>\n<p>In apodcast interview, CEO Tim Cook wouldn't even confirm the company plans to make a car. He did call autonomy a \"core technology\" suggesting Apple plans to invest in the space and figure out a way to provide the integration of software into the AVs of the future. The tech giant is clearly investing in LIDAR technology to develop the tools for AVs considering this award for a&nbsp;lidar patent.</p>\n<p>The market assigning such a large valuation to a potential product is where the valuation doesn't make sense. The auto space already is crowded with companies making vehicles now and so far companies such as Hyundai and Kia appear unwilling to partner with Apple in manufacturing vehicles designed by the tech giant.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The key investor takeaway is that Apple is far too expensive here despite the recent dip in the stock. Anybody assigning a material value to the hyped Apple Car is taking on excessive risk that is unwarranted. Investors should tread carefully with the stock back above $125.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Not Exactly A Bargain Yet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Not Exactly A Bargain Yet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-07 15:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417861-apple-not-exactly-bargain-yet><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is still expensive despite a $20 dip in the stock price.\nThe company is forecast to resume growth below the 10% rate starting in FY22.\nInvestors appear willing to assign far too much ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417861-apple-not-exactly-bargain-yet\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417861-apple-not-exactly-bargain-yet","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1184438574","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is still expensive despite a $20 dip in the stock price.\nThe company is forecast to resume growth below the 10% rate starting in FY22.\nInvestors appear willing to assign far too much value to hyped products such as the Apple Car.\nInvestors should avoid Apple above $125.\n\nPhoto by Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nApple(AAPL) fell more than $20 from the all-time highs reached back in January, but the stock isn't exactly a bargain down here at $126. The whole tech sector reached such stretched valuations that recent dips don't even bring the stocks back into value territory. My investment thesis remains more Neutral on Apple due to limited prospects for the fast growth needed to justify the current stock price.\nImage Source: Apple website\nBack To Normal\nThroughout all of FY21, Apple will go through a period of reporting accelerated growth due to easy COVID-19 comps and the 5G iPhone upgrade cycle. Some of the extra growth is due to COVID-19 pushing out demand from the March quarter last year or shutdowns delaying production of the iPhone 12 until the December quarter and missing FY20 sales. A big portion of the growth is due to the elevated revenues from the new cycle due to 5G that won't repeat in FY22.\nWhat ultimately matters is that growth will normalize back below a 10% annual clip in FY22. If anything, the elevated stock price reduces the terminal EPS growth rates as stock buybacks don't go as far and Apple no longer has the excessive net cash sitting at only $84 billion now. At a $2 trillion market cap, the net cash can only repurchase 4% of the outstanding shares.\nSource: Seeking Alpha earnings estimates page\nDue to the December quarter last year being boosted by iPhone 12 sales, analysts forecast the accelerated growth rates ending in the September quarter this year. In essence, the start of FY22 is now forecasted to coincide with slightly lower earnings followed by normalized earnings growth set to remain below 10% going forward. The stock still trades at 22x FY25 EPS estimates despite the limited growth forecast after this fiscal year.\nWhile the market likes to talk about strong growth trends for Apple whether via Services or new product hype, the analyst community doesn't actually see the growth materializing.\nApple Car Hype\nThe only real way to justify the current valuation is to assume a large valuation for future products not even close to starting production now. The major area of hype is the all-electric, Apple Car forecast for production in 2024 at the earliest and maybe 2028 to be realistic.\nUBS analyst David Vogt assigned a whopping $14 per share price target for the Apple Car. The analyst is assigning a $235 billion valuation to a product that isn't even in production and the tech giant hasn't even found a partner yet to produce the cars for a company that doesn't typically get involved in manufacturing. Possible auto manufacturers such as Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF) and Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF) don't appear still in talks with Apple.\nTesla (TSLA) is a world class EV manufacturer and the stock just last year passed a $250 billion market cap. The company was generating $25 billion in sales at the time and is on pace to $48 billion in sales this year and over $60 billion next year.\nData by YCharts\nUBS is assigning a valuation to the Apple Car similar to the most valued company in the sector after years of developing and producing market-leading vehicles. Apple hasn't shown any sign the company can produce something outside of the tech space and Tesla will have another three to five years of production lead to extend their dominance in the space.\nWithout the car hype, even UBS only has the stock worth $128 after the price hike. Currently, Apple trades for $126 providing limited upside without assigning massive amounts of valuation to the car segment.\nIn apodcast interview, CEO Tim Cook wouldn't even confirm the company plans to make a car. He did call autonomy a \"core technology\" suggesting Apple plans to invest in the space and figure out a way to provide the integration of software into the AVs of the future. The tech giant is clearly investing in LIDAR technology to develop the tools for AVs considering this award for a lidar patent.\nThe market assigning such a large valuation to a potential product is where the valuation doesn't make sense. The auto space already is crowded with companies making vehicles now and so far companies such as Hyundai and Kia appear unwilling to partner with Apple in manufacturing vehicles designed by the tech giant.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Apple is far too expensive here despite the recent dip in the stock. Anybody assigning a material value to the hyped Apple Car is taking on excessive risk that is unwarranted. Investors should tread carefully with the stock back above $125.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}