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2021-03-18

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What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference

Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l

What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference

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Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.\nPowell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.\n“You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d1de1c6bb04ff0208bb5b68618167c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"381\">\nFed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do\nPowell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,\nSome of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.\nBut sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.\n“The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.\nWeak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.\nPowell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.\nA decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon\nIn the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.\nBut this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. 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With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.\nBut sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.\n“The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.\nWeak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.\nPowell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.\nA decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon\nIn the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. 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What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference

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