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AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning. Mo Spence from Waterloo, Nebraska.

You’ve often stated that value and growth are opposite sides of the same coin.

听众：早上好！你常说价值和成长是一个硬币的两面。

Would you care to elaborate on that? And do you prefer a growth company that is selling cheap or a value company with moderate or better growth prospects?

请问可以展开说说吗？你会更愿意以便宜的价格买入一家成长型公司，还是以合理价格买入一家价值型公司呢？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, actually I think you’re — you may be misquoting me. But I really said that growth and value, they’re indistinguishable. They’re part of the same equation. Or really, growth is part of the value equation.

巴菲特：或许你错误地理解了我说的话。我真正的意思是成长和价值是不可分割的，它们是同一个公式里的组成部分。或者换句话说，成长是价值公式里的一部分。

So, our position is that there is no such thing as growth stocks or value stocks, the way Wall Street generally portrays them as being contrasting asset classes.

所以，我们从不区分成长投资和价值投资，但华尔街经常喜欢把这俩放在对立面。

Growth, usually, is a chance to — growth, usually, is a positive for value, but only when it means that by adding capital now, you add more cash availability later on, at a rate that’s considerably higher than the current rate of interest.

成长，通常意味着是增加价值的，前提是现在的投入能够在未来带来更多的现金回报，且回报率要高于现在的利率。

So, there is no — we don’t — we calculate into any business we buy what we expect to have happen, in terms of the cash that’s going to come out of it, or the cash that’s going to go into it.

我们会计算现在投入进公司业务的资金，在未来会给我们带来多少现金回报。

As I mentioned at FlightSafety, we’re going to buy $200 million worth of simulators this year. Our depreciation will probably be in the area of $70 million or thereabouts. So we’re putting $130 million above depreciation into that business.

比如，我们的FlightSafety（一家专门训练飞行员的公司），今年会买大约$2亿美元的模拟器。今年公司报表上的折旧大约是$0.7亿美元，所以会增加$1.3亿美元的设备。‍‍

Now that can be good or bad. I mean, it’s growth. There’s no question about it. We’ll have a lot more simulators at the end of the year. But whether that’s good or bad depends on what we earn on that incremental $130 million over time.

购买这些新设备肯定能给公司带来更多的收入，也就是会成长，这点毋庸置疑。但这可能是好事儿，也可能是坏事儿。至于是好事儿还是坏事儿，要看今天投入的$1.3亿美元以后能挣多少钱回来。

So if you tell me that you own a business that’s going to grow to the sky, and isn’t that wonderful, I don’t know whether it’s wonderful or not until I know what the economics are of that growth. How much you have to put in today, and how much you will reap from putting that in today, later on.

所以，如果你跟我说你有个很好的生意，这玩意儿未来的收入能上天，问我这棒不棒。我只能回答你，我不知道，直到我知道它能挣多少钱。

And the classic case, again, is the airline business. The airline business has been a growth business ever since, well, you know, Orville Wright took off. But the growth has been the worst thing that happened to it.

有个经典的例子是航空公司，航空业自从莱特兄弟发明飞机以来就是一直在快速成长的行业，但这个快速成长实际上对投资者而言是件糟糕的事情。

It’s been great for the American public. But growth has been a curse in the airline business because more and more capital has been put into the business at inadequate returns.

虽然对于美国普通消费者来说是件好事儿。越来越多的钱跟风投了进去，回报却寥寥，成长本身就成了诅咒。

Now, growth is wonderful at See’s Candy, because it requires relatively little incremental investment to sell more pounds of candy.

另一个极端例子是See's Candy（喜诗糖果），它卖更多的糖果，但却不怎么需要增加投入。

So, its — growth, and I’ve discussed this in some of the annual reports — growth is part of the equation, but anybody that tells you, “You ought to have your money in growth stocks or value stocks,” really does not understand investing. Other than that, they’re terrific people. (Laughter)

所以，正如我在年报里面说的一样，成长是价值公式里不可分割的一部分。如果有人跟你说：“你应该把钱投入到成长股，或者是价值股里。” 这个人一定不太懂投资。当然，除了这点以外，他可能是个好人。（全场笑）

Charlie?

查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think it’s fair to say that Berkshire, with a very limited headquarters staff — and that staff pretty old — (laughter) — we are especially partial to laying out large sums of money under circumstances where we won’t have to be smart again.

查理芒格：我觉得吧。应该说，伯克希尔总部就那么几号人，而且都已经一把年纪了。我们基本上每天都想着，怎么样才能把钱投到那些不需要我们一直保持聪明的行业。

In other words, if we buy good businesses run by good people at reasonable prices, there’s a good chance that you people will prosper us for many decades without more intelligence at headquarters. And you can say, in a sense, that’s growth stock investing.

换句话说，如果我们能用合理的价格，买到了那些优秀的人运营的好生意。那么就有很大的概率，在接下来的几十年里，我们会因为这个决定而变得富有。那这就是投资了成长股嘛。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, if you had asked Wall Street to classify Berkshire since 1965, year-by-year, is this a growth business or a value business — a growth stock or value stock — you know, who knows what they would have said.

巴菲特：如果你问华尔街，从1965年起，伯克希尔算是成长公司还是价值公司？不知道他们会怎么说。

But, you know, the real point is that we’re trying to put out capital now to get more capital — or money — we’re trying to put out cash now to get more cash back later on. And if you do that, the business grows, obviously. And you can call that value or you can call it growth. But they’re not two different categories.

但一切的关键是，我们今天不断地往外投钱，就是为了明天能拿更多的钱回来。如果能做到这个，那公司就是真的在增长。你可以说这是成长，或者这就是价值，说白了，这两个都是一个意思。

And I just cringe when I hear people talk about, “Now it’s time to move from growth stocks to value stocks,” or something like that, because it just doesn’t make any sense.

所以，每当我听到有人说，现在是时候要把投资从成长股换到价值股的时候，我都会觉得很尴尬。因为，这完全就是在胡说八道。

理念随笔

读什么书

俺自己的穷查理宝典（1）

俺自己的穷查理宝典（2）

投资随笔

简单的复利  

什么是好模式？什么又是好公司、好价格？  

在烂模式下的好公司？  

啥是好价格？  

选择自己的能力圈

所谓投资就是算出“自由现金流”

用买产业的心态去买公司

公司随笔

如何运营一个“免费”的动物园

麦当劳的另一面

伯克希尔的另一面

伯克希尔随笔

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1994年伯克希尔年会：业务不增长的公司也可以给投资人带来丰厚回报

1995年伯克希尔年会：伯克希尔最看重承诺和信任

1995年伯克希尔年会：可口可乐不分红和回购是对股东最大的回报

1995年伯克希尔年会：在合作中疑人不用，用人不疑

1997年伯克希尔年会：风险不来自于市场，而是来自于公司

1999年伯克希尔年会：总有聪明人冒着不对称的风险去赚额外收益

1999年伯克希尔年会：如果巴菲特从今天开始拿1万美元做投资

2001年伯克希尔年会：巴菲特犯的大错都是看不见的