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2021-03-17

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Markets keep telling the Federal Reserve it's behind the curve: At the Open

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its decision and updated Summary of Economic Projecti

Markets keep telling the Federal Reserve it's behind the curve: At the Open

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Maybe someone knows something, or maybe it’s just the market jamming the mosaic together into a tighter picture,\" DataTrekwrites. \"Either way, it’s an important signal and sits well with the idea the Fed will be upbeat on the US economy and very, very reassuring that Fed Funds are going nowhere any time soon.\"</p>\n<p>But despite Treasury yields continuing to sell off, \"credit spreads have remained well behaved. In addition, the equity market has been relatively unfazed with the drop in the VIX we have seen over the past several sessions,\" Jefferies Head of Strategy Sean Darby says.</p>\n<p>Another big question for the meeting is whether there is any indication of tapering the Fed's asset purchases of $120B per month.</p>\n<p>Up until now \"Powell has been saying that it's too soon for the Fed to start thinking about tapering its asset purchases. We expect him to maintain that stance, but a change in messaging could trigger a big market reaction,\" Rose writes.</p>\n<p>Inflation and a taper tantrumtopped COVID as the biggest concerns for portfolios in BofA's latest fund managers' survey.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Markets keep telling the Federal Reserve it's behind the curve: At the Open</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarkets keep telling the Federal Reserve it's behind the curve: At the Open\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 21:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673545-markets-keep-telling-the-federal-reserve-its-behind-the-curve><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Open Market Committee will release its decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections at 2 p.m. ET today,with Fed chief Jerome Powell speaking half an hour later.\nWhile the chief ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673545-markets-keep-telling-the-federal-reserve-its-behind-the-curve\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673545-markets-keep-telling-the-federal-reserve-its-behind-the-curve","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1117419062","content_text":"The Federal Open Market Committee will release its decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections at 2 p.m. ET today,with Fed chief Jerome Powell speaking half an hour later.\nWhile the chief concern for equity market remains whether the Fed takes the punch bowl away, the bond market is signaling that the Fed is late to the party in dealing with inflation.\nTreasury sellers aren't keeping powder dry ahead of the decision and are pushing longer yields up sharply this morning, steepening the curve.\nThe 10-year is up 4 basis points to 1.66%, a post-pandemic high, and the 30-year is up 3 basis points to 2.42%, the highest since late 2019.\n(NYSEARCA:TBT) +1.8%,(NASDAQ:TLT) -0.9%,(NYSEARCA:TIP) -0.1%,(NASDAQ:IEF) -0.5%,(NASDAQ:BND) -0.2%,(NASDAQ:VGLT) -0.9%,(NASDAQ:IEI) -0.2%\nThat's puttingpressure on stocks premarket.\n(NYSEARCA:SPY) -0.3%,(NASDAQ:QQQ), -1%\nA lot of attention is already on whether the FOMC willupdate its dot-plot to indicate an expected interest rate hike in 2023.\nIn December's SEP, only one of the 17 Fed officials expected a rate increase next year, and only five of them projected a hike in 2023.\nBut the markets see things moving much faster.\nFed funds futures are already pricing in one hike in 2022 and three hikes in 2023.\n\"If a majority of dots show a hike this time, it would represent a step back from the Fed's 'lower for longer' stance,\" Brian Rose, senior economist Americas at UBS, writes in a blog. \"However, markets are already pricing in rate hikes by 2023, so this might not trigger much of a reaction.\"\nAlong with fed funds futures expectations, there's what yields, which have captured the attention of equity investors, are telling the market.\nThe highs in the 10-year ahead of the meeting are telling, according to DataTrek Research.\n\"This is something like a stock making a new high ahead of an earnings release. Maybe someone knows something, or maybe it’s just the market jamming the mosaic together into a tighter picture,\" DataTrekwrites. \"Either way, it’s an important signal and sits well with the idea the Fed will be upbeat on the US economy and very, very reassuring that Fed Funds are going nowhere any time soon.\"\nBut despite Treasury yields continuing to sell off, \"credit spreads have remained well behaved. In addition, the equity market has been relatively unfazed with the drop in the VIX we have seen over the past several sessions,\" Jefferies Head of Strategy Sean Darby says.\nAnother big question for the meeting is whether there is any indication of tapering the Fed's asset purchases of $120B per month.\nUp until now \"Powell has been saying that it's too soon for the Fed to start thinking about tapering its asset purchases. We expect him to maintain that stance, but a change in messaging could trigger a big market reaction,\" Rose writes.\nInflation and a taper tantrumtopped COVID as the biggest concerns for portfolios in BofA's latest fund managers' survey.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}