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Jovan
2021-03-15

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Goldman Sachs raises GDP forecasts, says next fiscal package could hit $4 trillion

In light of the $1.9T fiscal package just enacted, Goldman Sachs is bumping up its forecasts for GDP

Goldman Sachs raises GDP forecasts, says next fiscal package could hit $4 trillion

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Goldman raises its GDP&nbsp;forecast 60 basis points to +5.1% on a full-year basis and by 50 basis points to +2.9% on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared with the consensus of +3.8% and +2.6%.</p>\n<li><p>While details on the next package are scarce, Goldman expects \"the White House to propose at least $2 trillion for infrastructure, though this could reach as much as $4 trillion if the proposal extends to other areas (e.g., child care, health care, or education). Increases in the corporate and capital gains tax rates look likely to finance a portion of this, though we believe it will be difficult for Congress to agree on more than around $1 trillion in such offsets.\"</p></li>\n<li><p>\"While the next major fiscal proposal might come with a large headline number, it is likely to have a much smaller impact on growth in 2021 and 2022, as the spending will be more evenly distributed over several years and some of it will likely reflect spending that would have happened in any case. Offsetting tax increases could also incrementally dampen the effects.\"</p></li>\n<li><p>While the U.S. looks alone in its stimulus spending by the sheer size of its rescue packages,many other counties are actually close in their efforts.</p></li>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs raises GDP forecasts, says next fiscal package could hit $4 trillion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs raises GDP forecasts, says next fiscal package could hit $4 trillion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 22:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672672-goldman-sachs-raises-gdp-forecasts-says-next-fiscal-package-could-top-4-trillion><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In light of the $1.9T fiscal package just enacted, Goldman Sachs is bumping up its forecasts for GDP growth.\nFrom Q1 2021 to Q4 2021, Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius sees GDP of +6%, +11%, +8.5% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672672-goldman-sachs-raises-gdp-forecasts-says-next-fiscal-package-could-top-4-trillion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672672-goldman-sachs-raises-gdp-forecasts-says-next-fiscal-package-could-top-4-trillion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181577151","content_text":"In light of the $1.9T fiscal package just enacted, Goldman Sachs is bumping up its forecasts for GDP growth.\nFrom Q1 2021 to Q4 2021, Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius sees GDP of +6%, +11%, +8.5% and +6.5%, which implies +7% for 2021 on a full-year basis and +8% on a Q4/Q4 basis.\nThe consensus is +5.5% on a full-year basis and +6% on a Q4/Q4 basis.\nFor 2022. Goldman raises its GDP forecast 60 basis points to +5.1% on a full-year basis and by 50 basis points to +2.9% on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared with the consensus of +3.8% and +2.6%.\nWhile details on the next package are scarce, Goldman expects \"the White House to propose at least $2 trillion for infrastructure, though this could reach as much as $4 trillion if the proposal extends to other areas (e.g., child care, health care, or education). Increases in the corporate and capital gains tax rates look likely to finance a portion of this, though we believe it will be difficult for Congress to agree on more than around $1 trillion in such offsets.\"\n\"While the next major fiscal proposal might come with a large headline number, it is likely to have a much smaller impact on growth in 2021 and 2022, as the spending will be more evenly distributed over several years and some of it will likely reflect spending that would have happened in any case. 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Goldman Sachs raises GDP forecasts, says next fiscal package could hit $4 trillion

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