警惕标普500与纳指本年回调及明年暴跌_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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警惕标普500与纳指本年回调及明年暴跌

1.一个美股指数先行指标叫：道琼斯交通运输指数，特指20主要交通运输行业企业股价综合值，在1973、2000年两次股市暴跌前一年左右领先下滑。也比较好理解，消费领先资本市场下滑。图三这个指标已开始劈叉；

图四，美国老百姓存款已降至二十年低值，没钱了；

图五，美国个贷中信用卡、车贷不良率高企，且仍在不断上升。

结论：受先行指标影响，预计7-8月标普500与纳值回调，之后美元降息、M2供应量持续增加再创新高，2025年6月左右大衰退。与康波周期中的基钦周期、朱格拉周期相合！最后的狂欢与美股的死亡行军，开始啦！

# 美光涨近4%！博通拆股前你会上车吗？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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奔驰豪宅哥最爱
·06-17
那么牛逼，2025年都预测出来了？我怎么认为降息后才会股指回调呢？其实很多人说今年股指也会暴跌92%
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林德布格
·06-17
大佬，你的分析真是深入透彻，收益颇丰！感谢分享，我一定会认真学习的
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