唱衰美股的人不是傻就_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

云中杨过
2023-08-11

唱衰美股的人不是傻就是坏，有本事买A股

市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”

迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？

市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

推荐
最新

老夫的少女心_
·2023-08-12
精彩
唱衰美股其实也没什么错，毕竟要转移矛盾
回复
1
举报
收起
- 云中杨过:
  讨厌你的网名，和我死党一样骚气
  2023-08-13
  回复
  举报
小东王子
·2023-08-12
精彩
A股的股民看见你这个言论很受伤
回复
点赞
举报
收起
- 云中杨过:
  唱衰美股，唱多A股的人真的让我损失了一些钱。看到了就来气！
  2023-08-13
  回复
  举报
权力的游戏厅
·2023-08-12
精彩
其实短线的美股并没有什么大机会
回复
点赞
举报
收起
- 云中杨过:
  不敢说，升息后期暴涨的历史重复了很多次，所以上半年涨了，现在很多投资人都紧盯市场，既怕市场跌，更怕市场涨自己没上车
  2023-08-13
  回复
  举报
哎呀呀小伙子
·2023-08-12
做多不可以的话，做空应该是有机会的
回复
1
举报
梅川洼子
·2023-08-12
A股虐我千百遍，我待A股如初恋
回复
1
举报
弹力绳22
·2023-08-12
没有体会过美股的人不懂你说的是什么
回复
1
举报

热议股票

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":207766573596848,"tweetId":"207766573596848","gmtCreate":1691747774722,"gmtModify":1691747944669,"author":{"id":3488511272713172,"idStr":"3488511272713172","authorId":3488511272713172,"authorIdStr":"3488511272713172","name":"云中杨过","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1bb215c17b1834edb747c65c3c260f7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>唱衰美股的人不是傻就是坏，有本事买A股</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>唱衰美股的人不是傻就是坏，有本事买A股</body></html>","text":"唱衰美股的人不是傻就是坏，有本事买A股","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/207766573596848","repostId":2358374647,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2358374647","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1691663794,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2358374647?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-10 18:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2358374647","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？","content":"<html><head></head><body>巴菲特最爱的估值指标正拉响警报，迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？2001年巴菲特在《财富》杂志上发表的《巴菲特论股市》一文中表示：所有公开交易的股票的市值占美国GNP的比例，这个比例虽然有一定的局限性，但是在任何时候衡量股市估值水平方面可能是最佳的单一指标。也因巴菲特的原因，该指标被称为巴菲特指标。简单来说，“巴菲特指标”计算方式为：美股总市值 / 美国国家GDP。8月8日，根据GuruFocus的数据显示，美股总市值（威尔希尔5000指数）为45万亿美元，较2022年9月的低点大幅上升22%。今年以来，标普500指数上涨19%，纳斯达克指数飙升37%，推动了该指数的上涨。同时，美国经济分析局对美国第二季度GDP的预估为26.84万亿美元，这意味着“巴菲特指数”达到惊人的170%。巴菲特曾指出，巴菲特指标为100%时，表明美股估值合理，在70%或80%的水平上买入可能会很好，114％至134％的区间为略微高估，超过134％即为严重高估，在200%左右购买美股等同于“玩火自焚”。很明显，从巴菲特指标来看，目前美股已被“严重高估”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad6b74b5d44cbf2c4e1a897d3f3812c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"873\"/>去年，这一指数曾证明其价值，该指数从去年1月份的210%暴跌至9月份的150%，与此同时，标普500指数跌近30%。今年以来，标普500在市场的乐观情绪中涨超16%，7月开始的美股财报季也证实了大公司的盈利能力，并正摆脱通胀困扰。分析师纷纷上调对公司的盈利预期，支撑股价上涨。同时，AI风暴席卷，大型科技股大幅反弹，纳斯达克年内涨幅达到了惊人的30%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcaf1d6771632a78c153286caa9773c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"472\"/>美股大幅上涨也让“巴菲特指数”重回大众视野，华尔街大型投行们都不约而同的发出了估值过高的警告，这或许正开始给美股带来压力。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席策略师Marko Kolanovic在最新的一份报告中写道，因欧美央行不太可能在近期转向，市盈率看起来过高。建议投资者减持股票：<blockquote>美股当前估值表明，投资者预计经济会继续扩张、或“不着陆”，同时货币政策会放宽。 但今年或明年经济衰退的可能性为65%，软着陆的可能性为35%，建议持低配股票和信用债，超配现金和大宗商品。</blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>也发出警告，AI概念股的泡沫正在接近顶峰，其策略师指出，作为风向标的AI标杆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>今年初以来累计涨超200%。基于历史纪录预计，这轮股市上涨将走到末期：<blockquote>因为过往纪录显示，在高峰到来前的三年内，美股的泡沫通常有154%的中位值涨幅。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-10 18:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695227>华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n巴菲特最爱的估值指标正拉响警报，迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？2001年巴菲特在《财富》杂志上发表的《巴菲特论股市》一文中表示：所有公开交易的股票的市值占美国GNP的比例，这个比例虽然有一定的局限性，但是在任何时候衡量股市估值水平方面可能是最佳的单一指标。也因巴菲特的原因，该指标被称为巴菲特指标。简单来说，“巴菲特指标”计算方式为：美股总市值 / 美国国家GDP。8月8日，根据GuruFocus...\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695227\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f760ec61ce8878ede99076ef387b4867","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3695227","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2358374647","content_text":"巴菲特最爱的估值指标正拉响警报，迈入牛市的美股离大幅调整不远了？2001年巴菲特在《财富》杂志上发表的《巴菲特论股市》一文中表示：所有公开交易的股票的市值占美国GNP的比例，这个比例虽然有一定的局限性，但是在任何时候衡量股市估值水平方面可能是最佳的单一指标。也因巴菲特的原因，该指标被称为巴菲特指标。简单来说，“巴菲特指标”计算方式为：美股总市值 / 美国国家GDP。8月8日，根据GuruFocus的数据显示，美股总市值（威尔希尔5000指数）为45万亿美元，较2022年9月的低点大幅上升22%。今年以来，标普500指数上涨19%，纳斯达克指数飙升37%，推动了该指数的上涨。同时，美国经济分析局对美国第二季度GDP的预估为26.84万亿美元，这意味着“巴菲特指数”达到惊人的170%。巴菲特曾指出，巴菲特指标为100%时，表明美股估值合理，在70%或80%的水平上买入可能会很好，114％至134％的区间为略微高估，超过134％即为严重高估，在200%左右购买美股等同于“玩火自焚”。很明显，从巴菲特指标来看，目前美股已被“严重高估”。去年，这一指数曾证明其价值，该指数从去年1月份的210%暴跌至9月份的150%，与此同时，标普500指数跌近30%。今年以来，标普500在市场的乐观情绪中涨超16%，7月开始的美股财报季也证实了大公司的盈利能力，并正摆脱通胀困扰。分析师纷纷上调对公司的盈利预期，支撑股价上涨。同时，AI风暴席卷，大型科技股大幅反弹，纳斯达克年内涨幅达到了惊人的30%。美股大幅上涨也让“巴菲特指数”重回大众视野，华尔街大型投行们都不约而同的发出了估值过高的警告，这或许正开始给美股带来压力。摩根大通首席策略师Marko Kolanovic在最新的一份报告中写道，因欧美央行不太可能在近期转向，市盈率看起来过高。建议投资者减持股票：美股当前估值表明，投资者预计经济会继续扩张、或“不着陆”，同时货币政策会放宽。 但今年或明年经济衰退的可能性为65%，软着陆的可能性为35%，建议持低配股票和信用债，超配现金和大宗商品。摩根士丹利也发出警告，AI概念股的泡沫正在接近顶峰，其策略师指出，作为风向标的AI标杆英伟达今年初以来累计涨超200%。基于历史纪录预计，这轮股市上涨将走到末期：因为过往纪录显示，在高峰到来前的三年内，美股的泡沫通常有154%的中位值涨幅。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":208169155162144,"commentId":"208169155162144","gmtCreate":1691846850334,"gmtModify":1691846854022,"authorId":3479274702625278,"author":{"id":3479274702625278,"idStr":"3479274702625278","authorId":3479274702625278,"name":"老夫的少女心_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf1da32355d7fcd455bcb763ef83cd5","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"唱衰美股其实也没什么错，毕竟要转移矛盾","text":"唱衰美股其实也没什么错，毕竟要转移矛盾","html":"唱衰美股其实也没什么错，毕竟要转移矛盾","likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":8058457,"commentId":"8058457","gmtCreate":1691896748696,"gmtModify":1691897268394,"authorId":3488511272713172,"author":{"id":3488511272713172,"idStr":"3488511272713172","authorId":3488511272713172,"name":"云中杨过","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1bb215c17b1834edb747c65c3c260f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":208169155162144,"supIdStr":"208169155162144","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"讨厌你的网名，和我死党一样骚气","text":"讨厌你的网名，和我死党一样骚气","html":"讨厌你的网名，和我死党一样骚气"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":208168996581408,"commentId":"208168996581408","gmtCreate":1691846811620,"gmtModify":1691846815893,"authorId":9000000000000147,"author":{"id":9000000000000147,"idStr":"9000000000000147","authorId":9000000000000147,"name":"小东王子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ed914de72078bed7ddd31c85dc3d66d","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"A股的股民看见你这个言论很受伤","text":"A股的股民看见你这个言论很受伤","html":"A股的股民看见你这个言论很受伤","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":8058455,"commentId":"8058455","gmtCreate":1691896705445,"gmtModify":1691896709149,"authorId":3488511272713172,"author":{"id":3488511272713172,"idStr":"3488511272713172","authorId":3488511272713172,"name":"云中杨过","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1bb215c17b1834edb747c65c3c260f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":208168996581408,"supIdStr":"208168996581408","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"唱衰美股，唱多A股的人真的让我损失了一些钱。看到了就来气！","text":"唱衰美股，唱多A股的人真的让我损失了一些钱。看到了就来气！","html":"唱衰美股，唱多A股的人真的让我损失了一些钱。看到了就来气！"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":208168786898968,"commentId":"208168786898968","gmtCreate":1691846868308,"gmtModify":1691846872003,"authorId":9000000000000628,"author":{"id":9000000000000628,"idStr":"9000000000000628","authorId":9000000000000628,"name":"权力的游戏厅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/067cda6133365badca6b51d9248d2066","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"其实短线的美股并没有什么大机会","text":"其实短线的美股并没有什么大机会","html":"其实短线的美股并没有什么大机会","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":8058459,"commentId":"8058459","gmtCreate":1691896940775,"gmtModify":1691896944544,"authorId":3488511272713172,"author":{"id":3488511272713172,"idStr":"3488511272713172","authorId":3488511272713172,"name":"云中杨过","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1bb215c17b1834edb747c65c3c260f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":208168786898968,"supIdStr":"208168786898968","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"不敢说，升息后期暴涨的历史重复了很多次，所以上半年涨了，现在很多投资人都紧盯市场，既怕市场跌，更怕市场涨自己没上车","text":"不敢说，升息后期暴涨的历史重复了很多次，所以上半年涨了，现在很多投资人都紧盯市场，既怕市场跌，更怕市场涨自己没上车","html":"不敢说，升息后期暴涨的历史重复了很多次，所以上半年涨了，现在很多投资人都紧盯市场，既怕市场跌，更怕市场涨自己没上车"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":208168907264032,"commentId":"208168907264032","gmtCreate":1691846789811,"gmtModify":1691846794016,"authorId":9000000000000158,"author":{"id":9000000000000158,"idStr":"9000000000000158","authorId":9000000000000158,"name":"哎呀呀小伙子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df6a0fed4b2624034014be633476534a","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"做多不可以的话，做空应该是有机会的","text":"做多不可以的话，做空应该是有机会的","html":"做多不可以的话，做空应该是有机会的","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":208168381100056,"commentId":"208168381100056","gmtCreate":1691846769238,"gmtModify":1691846772939,"authorId":9000000000000633,"author":{"id":9000000000000633,"idStr":"9000000000000633","authorId":9000000000000633,"name":"梅川洼子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcc68c43d8beb98df1558b5d44394d9","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"A股虐我千百遍，我待A股如初恋","text":"A股虐我千百遍，我待A股如初恋","html":"A股虐我千百遍，我待A股如初恋","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":208168288043032,"commentId":"208168288043032","gmtCreate":1691846746517,"gmtModify":1691846750959,"authorId":9000000000000315,"author":{"id":9000000000000315,"idStr":"9000000000000315","authorId":9000000000000315,"name":"弹力绳22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e0b33ca1e2c701ffc48fb8eb32fb4c8","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":207766573596848,"objectIdStr":"207766573596848","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"没有体会过美股的人不懂你说的是什么","text":"没有体会过美股的人不懂你说的是什么","html":"没有体会过美股的人不懂你说的是什么","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}

市场快见顶了？这个巴菲特最爱的指标显示美股“被严重高估”

评论（9）

热议股票