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五个趋势让投资者感到担忧的牛市--华尔街日报

Dow Jones Global News - Jul 09, 2023 23:00:00 道琼斯全球新闻 - 2023年7月9日23:00:00

A familiar question has crept back onto Wall Street: Could this be the most-hated bull market ever? 一个熟悉的问题再次出现在华尔街：这可能是有史以来最受厌恶的牛市吗？

The S&P 500 charged into bull-market territory in the first six months of 2023, marking a 20% rally from a recent low, yet investors say they can't stop looking over their shoulders. Even after U.S. stocks overcame big risks -- including repeated interest-rate hikes and a banking crisis -- money managers say they aren't convinced this rally is sustainable. $标普500(.SPX)$  在2023年上半年进入了牛市区域，从最近的低点反弹了20%，但投资者表示他们无法停止回头看。尽管美国股市克服了重大风险，包括多次加息和银行危机，但基金经理们表示他们并不相信这次反弹是可持续的。

History shows that investors don't tend to love bull markets when they are in them. Traders grumbled about the 11-year bull run born out of the financial crisis. So far this time, investor anxieties have been largely suppressed. Yet a drop in stocks and surge in bond yields last week after a round of strong economic data show how brittle the current bull market may be. 历史表明，投资者在牛市中并不喜欢它们。交易员对金融危机后的11年牛市表示不满。而这一次，投资者的焦虑情绪迄今为止被大部分压制住了。然而，上周股市下跌和债券收益率上涨，这是在一轮强劲经济数据之后，显示出当前牛市的脆弱性。

Investors say they are monitoring worrisome trends in the market. Here are five that are on their minds: 投资者表示他们正在关注市场上令人担忧的趋势。以下是他们关注的五个趋势：

1. Earnings Season Could Reveal Hidden Weakness 财报季可能揭示出隐藏的弱点

Earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. Some investors are warning it could be bumpy. 本周正式开始财报季。一些投资者警告可能会有波动。

Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report a 7.2% decline in earnings for the second quarter, FactSet data show, marking what would be the third consecutive year-over-year earnings decline. 根据FactSet的数据显示，预计标普500指数中的公司将在第二季度报告盈利下降7.2%，这将是连续第三年出现同比盈利下降。

Investors are on the lookout for whether corporate pricing power is ebbing. The net profit margin of companies in the S&P 500 is expected to fall to 11.4%, down slightly from the previous quarter and notably lower than the 13% peak reached in 2021. Companies might find themselves squeezed at both ends, investors say, as they face rising financing costs while also struggling to raise prices further as inflation ebbs. 投资者正在密切关注企业的定价能力是否在减弱。预计标普500指数公司的净利润率将下降至11.4%，略低于上个季度，并明显低于2021年达到的13%的峰值。投资者表示，公司可能会发现自己陷入两难境地，一方面面临不断上升的融资成本，另一方面在通胀减弱的同时难以进一步提高价格。

"The market is pricing in a very angelic scenario [for earnings], and we are very reluctant to buy into that," said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. His team has started trimming exposure to stocks in the firm's flagship multiasset portfolio, he said, while also keeping 25% of it in cash. “市场正在对盈利情景定价得过于理想化，我们非常不愿意参与其中。”Lombard Odier投资管理公司宏观负责人弗洛里安·伊尔波表示。他说，他的团队已经开始减少该公司旗舰多资产组合中的股票敞口，并将其中25%保持为现金。

2. The Yield Curve Inversion Is Deepening 2. 收益率曲线倒挂加深了

A year ago, the U.S. bond market began consistently flashing a recession signal. Lately, the warning has been getting louder. 一年前，美国债券市场开始持续发出衰退信号。最近，这个警告声音越来越响亮。

Part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been persistently inverted since last July, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below that of its two-year counterpart. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 1.08 percentage point below that of the two-year yield -- the widest negative gap since 1981. 自去年7月以来，美国国债收益率曲线的一部分一直处于倒挂状态，当时10年期美国国债收益率低于2年期国债收益率。上周，10年期美国国债收益率下降到比2年期收益率低1.08个百分点，这是自1981年以来的最大负差距。

Investors look to the U.S. Treasury yield curve as a gauge of economic health. When the curve inverts, that means bond traders are betting the Federal Reserve will keep rates high in the near term to fight inflation but will then need to cut them later to resuscitate the economy. 投资者将美国国债收益率曲线视为经济健康的指标。当曲线倒挂时，这意味着债券交易员正在打赌美联储将在短期内保持高利率以抑制通胀，但随后需要降低利率以振兴经济。

Some investors are betting the yield curve will trump more positive signs about growth, including recent data showing continuing resiliency in the labor market. 一些投资者押注收益曲线将超过有关经济增长的更多积极信号，包括最近的数据显示劳动力市场持续弹性。

3. Global Markets Look Cloudy, Too 全球市场也显得不太明朗

Markets outside the U.S. started 2023 on a positive note. China had just lifted its Covid-19 restrictions, stirring optimism that a flurry of spending from Chinese consumers would unleash economic growth at home and abroad. Asian stock indexes initially soared, as did those in Europe. 2023年，美国以外的市场以积极的态势开局。中国刚刚解除了新冠疫情限制，激发了人们对中国消费者大量支出将带动国内外经济增长的乐观情绪。亚洲股指一开始就飙升，欧洲股指也是如此。

Since then, excitement has faded. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the red for the year, while the Shanghai Composite has gained just 3.5%. Europe's pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 is up only slightly more -- 5.4% for the year -- and on Thursday suffered its largest decline since March. 自那时起，兴奋感逐渐消退。香港$恒生指数(HKHSI)$  今年以来一直处于亏损状态，而上证综指仅上涨了3.5%。欧洲的泛欧绩优600指数涨幅也仅略高一些——年内涨幅为5.4%，而周四则遭遇了自三月以来最大的下跌。

Fading optimism has been driven by darkened economic outlooks. The eurozone has slid into a recession, and investors continue to worry about the impact of the war in Ukraine and inflation that remains more stubborn compared with the U.S. China's era of rapid growth, meanwhile, seems to be over, felled in part by its troubled property market, mounting debt burden and high youth unemployment. 逐渐消退的乐观情绪是由经济前景黯淡所驱动的。欧元区已经陷入衰退，投资者继续担心乌克兰战争和通胀对经济的影响，相比之下，通胀在美国相对更为顽固。与此同时，中国快速增长的时代似乎已经结束，部分原因是受到了困扰的房地产市场、不断增加的债务负担和高青年失业率的影响。

4. Trouble From Higher Rates Keeps Bubbling 高利率带来的麻烦持续升温

Even the seemingly safest areas of the market are vulnerable to stress when interest rates rise. 即使市场上看似最安全的领域，在利率上升时也会面临压力。

The first warning shot came last fall, when rising rates sparked turmoil in U.K. bond and currency markets. Then came Silicon Valley Bank, whose collapse was sparked in part by a disclosure that the bank had booked a $1.8 billion loss on its bond portfolio due to rising rates. Even British utility Thames Water has recently come under stress, as it grapples with a large debt load and rising debt-service costs. 第一枪警告是在去年秋天响起的，当时升息引发了英国债券和货币市场的动荡。接着是硅谷银行的崩溃，其中一部分原因是因为披露该银行由于升息而在其债券组合上录得18亿美元的亏损。甚至连英国的水务公司泰晤士水公司最近也面临压力，因为它正努力应对巨额债务和不断上升的债务服务成本。

Many investors say they are nervous about what could break next. A June Deutsche Bank survey of market professionals showed that nearly all of its 400 respondents expect higher rates to cause more global accidents. Some 18% of them believe the strains will be significant, causing "serious financial stress." 许多投资者表示他们对接下来可能发生的事情感到紧张。德意志银行在六月份对市场专业人士进行的调查显示，几乎所有400名受访者都预计更高的利率将导致更多的全球事故。其中18%的人认为这种压力将是显著的，会导致“严重的财务压力”。

5. U.S. Stock Positioning Looks Stretched 5. 美国股市仓位看起来过高

After sitting on the sidelines at the start of this year, asset managers, hedge funds and individual investors have picked up buying activity, joining quant funds. 在今年初观望一段时间后，资产管理人、对冲基金和个人投资者纷纷加入了量化基金的购买行列。

Together, that buying has pushed their U.S. stock market positioning to its highest level in nearly 18 months, according to an estimate from JPMorgan Chase. Positioning in some parts of the tech sector, namely software and semiconductor companies, looks particularly stretched, said Eloise Goulder, head of the data assets and alpha group at the bank. 根据摩根大通的估计，这些购买行为使得他们在美国股市的仓位达到近18个月来的最高水平。该银行的数据资产和阿尔法团队负责人Eloise Goulder表示，科技行业的某些部分，尤其是软件和半导体公司的仓位看起来特别高。

This crowded positioning has stirred worries that U.S. stocks could be vulnerable to a rapid reversal. Eight stocks in the S&P 500 -- Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla and Nvidia -- now account for 30% of the index's market capitalization, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Tech's influence, combined with crowded positioning, could magnify moves in the market if sentiment shifts and investors try to simultaneously exit positions. 这种拥挤的定位引发了人们对美国股市可能面临快速逆转的担忧。根据道琼斯市场数据，标普500指数中的8只股票——谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、Netflix、特斯拉和英伟达——现在占据了指数市值的30%。科技股的影响力加上拥挤的定位，如果情绪转变并且投资者试图同时退出仓位，可能会放大市场的波动。

FOMO, or fear of missing out, "is in full swing," JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka said in a recent note. FOMO，即害怕错过，JPMorgan的策略师们在最近的一份报告中表示，“正处于全面展开的状态”。

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