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DJ Tech Trader: Twitter vs. Meta: What It Means for Investors -- Barron's DJ科技交易员：Twitter vs. Meta：对投资者意味着什么--巴伦周刊

Dow Jones Global News - Jul 07, 2023 21:30:00 道琼斯全球新闻 - 2023年7月7日 21:30:00

By Eric J. Savitz

The chattering classes are abuzz about the launch of Threads, a new social-media platform from Meta Platforms, parent of Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram. Threads, which launched on Wednesday night, is a near carbon copy of Twitter, a place to post and discuss content and ideas, mostly in text form. 舆论界对$Meta Platforms(META)$  平台旗下的Facebook、WhatsApp和Instagram的新社交媒体平台Threads的推出议论纷纷。Threads于周三晚上上线，几乎是Twitter的翻版，是一个发布和讨论内容和想法的地方，主要以文本形式呈现。

Threads already has more than 30 million downloads, according to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Investors bid up Meta's stock on the launch, suggesting they think Threads might crush Twitter. It just might, and yet the market is still overestimating Thread's importance to Meta's own business -- and its stock. 根据Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格的说法，Threads已经有超过3000万次下载。投资者在发布会上抬高了Meta的股价，暗示他们认为Threads可能会击败Twitter。这也许是可能的，然而市场仍然高估了Threads对Meta自身业务和股票的重要性。

Meta <META> has a habit of copying ideas created by rivals. Stories, a format for photos and short videos, duplicates a feature first created on Snap's <SNAP> Snapchat. Reels mimics TikTok, the user-generated video app owned by China's ByteDance. Now, Facebook is taking direct aim at Twitter, which has been struggling to regain its financial footing since Elon Musk paid $44 billion for the company in October. Meta 有一个习惯，就是抄袭竞争对手创造的想法。Stories是一种用于照片和短视频的格式，它复制了Snap的 Snapchat上首次创建的一个功能。Reels则模仿了中国字节跳动拥有的用户生成视频应用TikTok。现在，Facebook直接瞄准了Twitter，自从埃隆·马斯克在十月份以440亿美元收购该公司以来，Twitter一直在努力恢复其财务地位。

Despite Thread's Twitter-like appearance, there are some key differences between the apps. Threads has just one news feed, which includes people you choose to follow along with users the algorithm thinks might interest you. On Twitter, you can choose one or the other. 尽管Thread的外观类似于Twitter，但这两个应用程序之间存在一些关键区别。Threads只有一个新闻动态，其中包括您选择关注的人以及算法认为可能会引起您兴趣的用户。而在Twitter上，您可以选择其中之一。

Unlike on Twitter, there's no list of trending topics, and you can't send direct messages to other users. Another important difference is that the service hasn't been rolled out in Europe yet, which limits the audience considerably. 与Twitter不同的是，没有热门话题列表，也无法向其他用户发送直接消息。另一个重要的区别是该服务尚未在欧洲推出，这大大限制了受众范围。

Most notably, there's no advertising on Threads, at least not yet. Adam Mosseri, who runs Instagram, told Platformer, the tech newsletter, that the company has no immediate monetization plans. "Honestly, we're not focused on it at all right now," Mosseri said. But Zuckerberg has said Threads can eventually reach 1 billion users. That would be quadruple the 238 million who were using Twitter before it went private last year. 最值得注意的是，Threads上没有广告，至少目前还没有。Instagram负责人亚当·莫塞里告诉科技新闻通讯平台Platformer，公司目前没有即时的盈利计划。莫塞里表示：“老实说，我们现在完全没有关注这个。”但扎克伯格表示，Threads最终可以达到10亿用户。这将是去年Twitter私有化之前使用该平台的2.38亿用户数量的四倍。

Wall Street analysts have lately become more bullish on the outlook for Meta shares, but Threads isn't the catalyst. 华尔街分析师最近对Meta股票的前景变得更加看涨，但Threads并非催化剂。

KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson reiterated his Overweight rating on Meta this past week, boosting his target price from $280 to $335, 15% above recent levels. But his call reflects improvement in the core ad business, not the Threads launch. KeyBanc分析师Justin Patterson在上周重申了对Meta的超配评级，并将目标价从280美元提高至335美元，比最近水平高出15%。但他的观点反映的是核心广告业务的改善，而不是Threads的推出。

Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski wrote in a note this past week that "at maturity," Threads could potentially boost profits and revenue by 1% to 3%. "Since very few advertisers and budgets will be incremental to Threads from Meta, the key is driving incremental usage," he writes. "Expect limited near-term monetization." 富国银行分析师肯·高雷尔斯基在上周的一份备忘录中写道，“在成熟阶段”，Threads有可能将利润和收入提升1%至3%。“由于很少有广告商和预算会额外投入到Meta的Threads上，关键在于推动额外的使用量，”他写道。“预计短期内的货币化有限。”

Elon Musk has said that Twitter's revenue this year would be around $3 billion, down from $5.1 billion in 2021. If Meta were to add an incremental $5 billion in revenue in 2024 -- basically an entire Twitter-size business -- it would boost Meta's total revenue by less than 5%. 埃隆·马斯克表示，Twitter今年的收入将约为30亿美元，较2021年的51亿美元有所下降。如果Meta在2024年增加了50亿美元的收入，基本上相当于一个完整的Twitter规模业务，那么这将使Meta的总收入增长不到5%。

Or consider this: Twitter's current valuation is likely down sharply from its $44 billion acquisition price. Fidelity, which participated in Musk's deal, has marked down its estimated value of Twitter to $15 billion. If Threads is worth just as much, that's only a 2% increase to Meta's current value, a move that was more than priced in on Wednesday, when Meta shares rose 2.9% ahead of the Threads launch. 或者考虑一下：Twitter目前的估值很可能大幅下降，远低于其440亿美元的收购价格。参与马斯克交易的Fidelity已将Twitter的估值调低至150亿美元。如果Threads的价值也只有这么多，那对Meta目前的价值仅增加2%，而这个增长在周三Meta股票上涨2.9%之前已经被完全定价进去了。

The bottom line is that Twitter is fundamentally a small business, with a far smaller user base than any of Meta's own apps. Threads isn't the new Instagram. It's a whittled-down Twitter -- and unlikely to be a needle-mover for Meta. 底线是，Twitter基本上是一家小企业，其用户基数远远小于Meta旗下的任何应用。Threads并不是新的Instagram。它只是一个精简版的Twitter，对Meta来说不太可能产生重大影响。

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