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2021-05-13

Probably needs direction after the C19 vaccine.

Moderna Delivers More Bad News

Summary MRNA could generate $19 billion in COVID-19 revenue this year. This is likely a high waterm

Moderna Delivers More Bad News

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":191527042,"tweetId":"191527042","gmtCreate":1620892308286,"gmtModify":1634195508114,"author":{"id":3582882350964011,"idStr":"3582882350964011","authorId":3582882350964011,"authorIdStr":"3582882350964011","name":"applezen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b8eb15e641815b4df371018f08aec7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Probably needs direction after the C19 vaccine.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Probably needs direction after the C19 vaccine.</p></body></html>","text":"Probably needs direction after the C19 vaccine.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191527042","repostId":1116870280,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620889433,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116870280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Delivers More Bad News","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870280","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMRNA could generate $19 billion in COVID-19 revenue this year. This is likely a high waterm","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>MRNA could generate $19 billion in COVID-19 revenue this year. This is likely a high watermark.</li>\n <li>Management did not give an indication of its 2022P revenue. No news is bad news, and management delivered more of it.</li>\n <li>The 2022 COVID-19 market is expected fall. Suspension of IP rights and potential competition from CVAC may not be priced in.</li>\n <li>Sell MRNA.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA)reportedQ1 revenue of $1.94 billion and GAAP EPS of $2.84. The company missed on revenue, yet beat on earnings. The stock is practically flat post-earnings. I had the following takeaways on the quarter.</p>\n<p><b>2021 Advance Purchase Orders Are Impressive</b></p>\n<p>In Q4 2020 Moderna and Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)were first to receive Emergency Use Authorization for a COVID-19 vaccine. With Johnson &amp; Johnson(NYSE:JNJ), AstraZeneca(NASDAQ:AZN)and Novavax(NASDAQ:NVAX)waiting in the wings, Moderna moved quickly to secure vaccine supply deals. As more people get vaccinated, there will be fewer remaining to get vaccinated. The COVID-19 vaccine market is expected to fall over time; the more supply deals cut by Moderna and Pfizer, means less opportunity for competitors.</p>\n<p>Q1 revenue of $1.9 billion was multiples higher than the $571 million reported in Q4.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b51d2b977eaa2c39a112aeaec804c8f\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Author's work</p>\n<p>About 89% of total revenue was derived from product sales. Meanwhile, revenue from grants and collaborations has become less pronounced. Product sales represent customer deposits recorded as deferred revenue; revenue is recorded upon customer acceptance and control of the transferred product.</p>\n<p>Last quarter Modernaannounced it had securedover $18 billion in advance purchase agreements (\"APAs\"). This quarter APAssigned for deliveryin 2021 exceeded $19 billion:</p>\n<blockquote>\n At the end of 2021, we had cash and cash investments of $8.2 billion. David will give you more details in a few minutes. We increased our 2021 supply forecast once again. We now believe that we should be able to supply 800 million doses in 2021, and we are still aiming for 1 billion doses for the year. The total advanced purchase agreement signed for delivery in 2021 have been increased to $19.2 billion.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Revenue should grow by leaps and bounds for the rest of 2021 as Moderna makes good on APAs. Bernsteinanalysts projectthe 2021 COVID-19 vaccine market at $39 billion, falling to $23 billion in 2020. With tens of billions in APAs between them, Pfizer and Moderna may not leave much opportunity for competitors this year.</p>\n<p><b>Still No Revenue Projection For 2022</b></p>\n<p>Moderna has an equity market capitalization of $64 billion. The math to support that valuation remains unclear. I believe MRNA should be valued based on recurring revenue, which would be closer to 2022P revenue. I have been awaiting management to give an indication of 2022P revenue. How else could you justify the company's robust valuation? On the earnings call management gave no such indication. However, the company was willing to discuss itsincreased supplyfor 2022:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We have announced in the Company's statement issued October 8, 2020 that during the pandemic, Moderna will not enforce COVID-19-related patents. You can find that statement on our website. We believe that the best way to end the pandemic is what we're currently doing: first, to maximize supply in 2021 to protect as many people as we can; second, to build additional capacity, which we have announced last week to get up to 3 billion doses of authorized mRNA vaccines for 2022, 2023 and beyond; and third, to continue to adapt the vaccine to have the highest efficacy vaccine with variant-specific booster, for which we announced a very encouraging clinical results yesterday.\n</blockquote>\n<p>How many deliveries and how much revenue increased supply will likely lead to remains a mystery. No news is bad news, in my opinion. I previously projected Modernawould generate about$5 billion in 2022 revenue, representing 22% share of the 2022 COVID-19 vaccine market. This represents a range of possibilities. Until management indicates otherwise, we may have to go with my numbers.</p>\n<p>MRNA's $64 billion market capitalization would represent over 12x 2022P revenue, which is untenable in my opinion. Merck(NYSE:MRK)and AstraZeneca cashed out of their early investments in the company.Insiders are bailing outof the stock, which seems to support my position that MRNA is woefully overvalued.</p>\n<p><b>Headwinds Lie Ahead</b></p>\n<p>The 2022 COVID-19 vaccine market is expected to fall hard in 2022. That likely portends Moderna's revenue will fall Y/Y as well. It is a good thing the company is racking up supply deals; it has a golden opportunity to squirrel away billions in capital to help fund other drugs. The Biden administrationrecently announcedsupport for suspending COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property (\"IP\") rights. Such a move could allow lesser-developed countries to manufacture vaccines locally, speeding up access to vaccines.</p>\n<p>It could take a while for lesser-developed countries to build up the capabilities to manufacture and distribute a vaccine. However, I believe suspending IP rights could eventually lead to generic competition and hurt pricing power for Moderna and Pfizer. This scenario does not appear to be priced into the shares. That said, CureVac(NASDAQ:CVAC)expects regulatory approvalfor its COVID-19 vaccine within weeks. CureVac uses the same mRNA therapeutics employed by Pfizer and Moderna; it has strategic collaborations with GlaxoSmithKline(NYSE:GSK)and Bayer(OTCPK:BAYZF)to help manufacture and distribute the vaccine. If it wins approval, CureVac could potentially shake up the COVID-19 supply board by Q1 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>2021 revenue is likely a high water market for MRNA. Competition from generic suppliers or CureVac could create headwinds. Sell MRNA.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Delivers More Bad News</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Delivers More Bad News\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-13 15:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427745-moderna-delivers-more-bad-news><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMRNA could generate $19 billion in COVID-19 revenue this year. This is likely a high watermark.\nManagement did not give an indication of its 2022P revenue. No news is bad news, and management...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427745-moderna-delivers-more-bad-news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427745-moderna-delivers-more-bad-news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1116870280","content_text":"Summary\n\nMRNA could generate $19 billion in COVID-19 revenue this year. This is likely a high watermark.\nManagement did not give an indication of its 2022P revenue. No news is bad news, and management delivered more of it.\nThe 2022 COVID-19 market is expected fall. Suspension of IP rights and potential competition from CVAC may not be priced in.\nSell MRNA.\n\nModerna(NASDAQ:MRNA)reportedQ1 revenue of $1.94 billion and GAAP EPS of $2.84. The company missed on revenue, yet beat on earnings. The stock is practically flat post-earnings. I had the following takeaways on the quarter.\n2021 Advance Purchase Orders Are Impressive\nIn Q4 2020 Moderna and Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)were first to receive Emergency Use Authorization for a COVID-19 vaccine. With Johnson & Johnson(NYSE:JNJ), AstraZeneca(NASDAQ:AZN)and Novavax(NASDAQ:NVAX)waiting in the wings, Moderna moved quickly to secure vaccine supply deals. As more people get vaccinated, there will be fewer remaining to get vaccinated. The COVID-19 vaccine market is expected to fall over time; the more supply deals cut by Moderna and Pfizer, means less opportunity for competitors.\nQ1 revenue of $1.9 billion was multiples higher than the $571 million reported in Q4.\nSource: Author's work\nAbout 89% of total revenue was derived from product sales. Meanwhile, revenue from grants and collaborations has become less pronounced. Product sales represent customer deposits recorded as deferred revenue; revenue is recorded upon customer acceptance and control of the transferred product.\nLast quarter Modernaannounced it had securedover $18 billion in advance purchase agreements (\"APAs\"). This quarter APAssigned for deliveryin 2021 exceeded $19 billion:\n\n At the end of 2021, we had cash and cash investments of $8.2 billion. David will give you more details in a few minutes. We increased our 2021 supply forecast once again. We now believe that we should be able to supply 800 million doses in 2021, and we are still aiming for 1 billion doses for the year. The total advanced purchase agreement signed for delivery in 2021 have been increased to $19.2 billion.\n\nRevenue should grow by leaps and bounds for the rest of 2021 as Moderna makes good on APAs. Bernsteinanalysts projectthe 2021 COVID-19 vaccine market at $39 billion, falling to $23 billion in 2020. With tens of billions in APAs between them, Pfizer and Moderna may not leave much opportunity for competitors this year.\nStill No Revenue Projection For 2022\nModerna has an equity market capitalization of $64 billion. The math to support that valuation remains unclear. I believe MRNA should be valued based on recurring revenue, which would be closer to 2022P revenue. I have been awaiting management to give an indication of 2022P revenue. How else could you justify the company's robust valuation? On the earnings call management gave no such indication. However, the company was willing to discuss itsincreased supplyfor 2022:\n\n We have announced in the Company's statement issued October 8, 2020 that during the pandemic, Moderna will not enforce COVID-19-related patents. You can find that statement on our website. We believe that the best way to end the pandemic is what we're currently doing: first, to maximize supply in 2021 to protect as many people as we can; second, to build additional capacity, which we have announced last week to get up to 3 billion doses of authorized mRNA vaccines for 2022, 2023 and beyond; and third, to continue to adapt the vaccine to have the highest efficacy vaccine with variant-specific booster, for which we announced a very encouraging clinical results yesterday.\n\nHow many deliveries and how much revenue increased supply will likely lead to remains a mystery. No news is bad news, in my opinion. I previously projected Modernawould generate about$5 billion in 2022 revenue, representing 22% share of the 2022 COVID-19 vaccine market. This represents a range of possibilities. Until management indicates otherwise, we may have to go with my numbers.\nMRNA's $64 billion market capitalization would represent over 12x 2022P revenue, which is untenable in my opinion. Merck(NYSE:MRK)and AstraZeneca cashed out of their early investments in the company.Insiders are bailing outof the stock, which seems to support my position that MRNA is woefully overvalued.\nHeadwinds Lie Ahead\nThe 2022 COVID-19 vaccine market is expected to fall hard in 2022. That likely portends Moderna's revenue will fall Y/Y as well. It is a good thing the company is racking up supply deals; it has a golden opportunity to squirrel away billions in capital to help fund other drugs. The Biden administrationrecently announcedsupport for suspending COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property (\"IP\") rights. Such a move could allow lesser-developed countries to manufacture vaccines locally, speeding up access to vaccines.\nIt could take a while for lesser-developed countries to build up the capabilities to manufacture and distribute a vaccine. However, I believe suspending IP rights could eventually lead to generic competition and hurt pricing power for Moderna and Pfizer. This scenario does not appear to be priced into the shares. That said, CureVac(NASDAQ:CVAC)expects regulatory approvalfor its COVID-19 vaccine within weeks. CureVac uses the same mRNA therapeutics employed by Pfizer and Moderna; it has strategic collaborations with GlaxoSmithKline(NYSE:GSK)and Bayer(OTCPK:BAYZF)to help manufacture and distribute the vaccine. If it wins approval, CureVac could potentially shake up the COVID-19 supply board by Q1 2022.\nConclusion\n2021 revenue is likely a high water market for MRNA. Competition from generic suppliers or CureVac could create headwinds. Sell MRNA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":41,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}