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2021-06-15

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There’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations

Older people who remember bouts of high inflation see much stronger price pressures ahead.

There’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations

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It’s also a massively subjective experience.</p>\n<p>People might have different impressions of inflation depending on their own personal ‘baskets’ of recurrent items, but they can also have different concerns based on their personal history with&nbsp;price pressures. Those who lived through the 1970s, for instance, might be far more inclined to seeWeimar-esque hyperinflationlurking around the corner, while those who’ve never witnessed inflation hit 2% are far more sanguine.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;Ulrike Malmendierand&nbsp;Stefan Nagelput it in their seminal 2016 paper examining how people actually form&nbsp;inflation expectations:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Such learning from experience carries two central implications. First, expectations are history-dependent. Cohorts that have lived through periods of high inflation for a substantial amount of time have higher inflation expectations than individuals who have mostly experienced low inflation.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Second, beliefs are heterogeneous. Young individuals place more weight on recent data than older individuals since recent experiences make up a larger part of their life-times so far. As a result, different generations tend to disagree about the future.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>That dynamic is now fully apparent, according to data from the New York Fed, with a schism now developing between younger survey respondents who expect inflation to hit 3.19% in a year,&nbsp;and an older generation who sees it getting close to 5% within the same time period.</p>\n<p>So while respondents across the spectrum of ages do see inflation trending higher,&nbsp;the olds expect a much higher rate than the youngs.</p>\n<p>Median one-year ahead expected inflation rate by age group</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29689a621effc70feb1657ffbfb870d9\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"303\">Now would be a good time to ask whether economic policy takes into account age-like schisms and whether the impression of higher inflation from those over 60 might be the latest thing for members of the FOMC to strip out of inflation data as transitory&nbsp;or otherwise ‘noisy.’</p>\n<p>It’s also worth mentioning&nbsp;that Malmendier’slatest workfocuses on central bankers’ own history with inflation, concluding that “personal lifetime experiences significantly affect the inflation forecasts, voting behavior, tone of speeches, and federal funds target rate decisions of FOMC members.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 15:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/there-s-a-big-divergence-developing-in-inflation-expectations><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, according to Milton Friedman. It’s also a massively subjective experience.\nPeople might have different impressions of inflation depending on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/there-s-a-big-divergence-developing-in-inflation-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/there-s-a-big-divergence-developing-in-inflation-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180935322","content_text":"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, according to Milton Friedman. It’s also a massively subjective experience.\nPeople might have different impressions of inflation depending on their own personal ‘baskets’ of recurrent items, but they can also have different concerns based on their personal history with price pressures. Those who lived through the 1970s, for instance, might be far more inclined to seeWeimar-esque hyperinflationlurking around the corner, while those who’ve never witnessed inflation hit 2% are far more sanguine.\nAs Ulrike Malmendierand Stefan Nagelput it in their seminal 2016 paper examining how people actually form inflation expectations:\n\n “Such learning from experience carries two central implications. First, expectations are history-dependent. Cohorts that have lived through periods of high inflation for a substantial amount of time have higher inflation expectations than individuals who have mostly experienced low inflation.\n\n\n Second, beliefs are heterogeneous. Young individuals place more weight on recent data than older individuals since recent experiences make up a larger part of their life-times so far. As a result, different generations tend to disagree about the future.”\n\nThat dynamic is now fully apparent, according to data from the New York Fed, with a schism now developing between younger survey respondents who expect inflation to hit 3.19% in a year, and an older generation who sees it getting close to 5% within the same time period.\nSo while respondents across the spectrum of ages do see inflation trending higher, the olds expect a much higher rate than the youngs.\nMedian one-year ahead expected inflation rate by age group\nNow would be a good time to ask whether economic policy takes into account age-like schisms and whether the impression of higher inflation from those over 60 might be the latest thing for members of the FOMC to strip out of inflation data as transitory or otherwise ‘noisy.’\nIt’s also worth mentioning that Malmendier’slatest workfocuses on central bankers’ own history with inflation, concluding that “personal lifetime experiences significantly affect the inflation forecasts, voting behavior, tone of speeches, and federal funds target rate decisions of FOMC members.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}