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2021-06-12

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Apple: Why Shares Are Struggling

Summary Stock is down this year despite two massive earnings beats. High growth bar and rising taxe

Apple: Why Shares Are Struggling

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If you had told someone that technology giant Apple (AAPL) would have reported two of the biggest earnings beats in corporate history so far this year and yet the stock would have significantly underperformed the NASDAQ Index, they might not have believed you. However, that's just where we are now, as the chart below shows how the stock has declined 5.1% through Monday despite the Index's nice gains. Today, I'd like to discuss why I believe shares are doing poorly at the moment, why these bearish points should be mostly discounted, and how Apple can get back to all-time highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4a0333188c18d1f43e4e85b41523a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\">(<i>Source: Yahoo! Finance)</i></p>\n<p>The first thing I can point to as a reason for underperformance is actually outperformance. Apple shares over the past five years, prior to the start of this one, had gone from the mid $20s (dividend and split-adjusted) to roughly $132 a share. The stock was a big winner and thus expectations continued to go higher and higher. Some investors just weren't willing to bet on a company worth a bit more than $2 trillion, and a number of last year's winners have struggled so far this year, like Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN).</p>\n<p>In my last Apple article, I discussed how the company was becominga victim of its own success. Because the two earnings reports so far this year were so great, the thought process has shifted to can Apple ever do any better? In this case, I'm not talking about strict dollar amounts, but growth percentages. Look at the chart below, showing how once we hit the December 2021 (fiscal Q1 2022) quarter, revenue growth rates are expected to crash down.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b61b66cfb83a8e7f307580dd6277be6\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"397\">(<i>Source: Seeking Alpha estimates page,seen here)</i></p>\n<p>I said previously that Apple bears would jump at the possibility of Apple announcing a revenue decline for the March 2022 fiscal quarter, even if it is due to the previous year being one of the best quarters we've ever seen. Fortunately, Apple's overall revenue trajectory remains strong, and I think management has a solid plan in place. Just like we saw with the iPad earlier this year, I think new storage options on this year's iPhones will allow for average selling price upside, offsetting some concerns of a supercycle sales slowdown.</p>\n<p>Also, despite Apple having a great start to the year, Macmarket share wasonly 8% in calendar Q1, so imagine how much more room there is to grow in the PC space. I'm not concerned with a revenue blip every now and then if the long-term trajectory is still for more records, which is what most expectations call for in the coming years.</p>\n<p>The second item I believe investors are a little worried about is the potential for rising taxes. The first part of this would obviously be higher taxes on the rich, especially capital gains taxes, that could limit investment in stocks. For Apple though, the issue would be higher corporate taxes, which obviously would impact the profit monster. For instance, the difference between an overall tax rate of 15% versus 18% for Apple in its fiscal 2022 year (based on current estimates) is roughly $3 billion in net income, or almost 20 cents in EPS. A nickel per quarter headwind makes it harder to impress investors, especially when you are coming off the best year in your history.</p>\n<p>In a similar manner, investors are likely concerned about the potential rise in interest rates and ending of easy money policies around the globe. Stocks have been pushed to new all-time highs as a result, but what happens when the Fed starts to taper and other central banks follow suit? Apple shares had run to a forward P/E valuation in the low to mid 30s, well above themid-teens figure it was at just a few years ago.</p>\n<p>But with the decline in shares from their highs and the rise in EPS estimates after two large beats, you are now paying about 24 times the next twelve months' expected EPS. That's not a terrible price to pay considering the total package, including the massive buyback, and theaverage analyst price targetrepresents more than $30 upside from current levels. Interestingly enough, rising interest rates are actually good further down the Apple income statement, as its $80 billion or so in net cash will generate a bit of extra interest.</p>\n<p>Right now, Apple shares are stuck in a trading range, as the chart below shows. The 50-day moving average (purple line) is forming resistance, while the 200-day (orange line) is forming support. The next major move can occur once Apple can get out of this channel, and investors are hoping it is to the upside, which could form the base to get the stock to new highs. If shares drop, the 50-day could cross below its longer-term counterpart, which would be the dreaded technical death cross.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e9824e0460f9dd99f18e189ee0cff4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\">(<i>Source: Yahoo! Finance)</i></p>\n<p>While Apple as a business has been firing on all cylinders lately, the same cannot be said for shares of the stock. After a massive multi-year rally, it seems that investors are worried about tough growth comparisons coming up, rising interest rates, and higher corporate taxes. While these fears are something to keep in mind, the valuation of the name has improved to a point where they should mostly be digested. Now, the stock just needs to break out of its recent trading range, and getting above the 50-day could be the catalyst to get the name going again.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Why Shares Are Struggling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Why Shares Are Struggling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 17:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433665-apple-why-shares-are-struggling><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStock is down this year despite two massive earnings beats.\nHigh growth bar and rising taxes may be the two biggest culprits.\nShares need to break out of their technical range.\n\nWe are just a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433665-apple-why-shares-are-struggling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433665-apple-why-shares-are-struggling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181136591","content_text":"Summary\n\nStock is down this year despite two massive earnings beats.\nHigh growth bar and rising taxes may be the two biggest culprits.\nShares need to break out of their technical range.\n\nWe are just a few weeks away from the midpoint of 2021. If you had told someone that technology giant Apple (AAPL) would have reported two of the biggest earnings beats in corporate history so far this year and yet the stock would have significantly underperformed the NASDAQ Index, they might not have believed you. However, that's just where we are now, as the chart below shows how the stock has declined 5.1% through Monday despite the Index's nice gains. Today, I'd like to discuss why I believe shares are doing poorly at the moment, why these bearish points should be mostly discounted, and how Apple can get back to all-time highs.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nThe first thing I can point to as a reason for underperformance is actually outperformance. Apple shares over the past five years, prior to the start of this one, had gone from the mid $20s (dividend and split-adjusted) to roughly $132 a share. The stock was a big winner and thus expectations continued to go higher and higher. Some investors just weren't willing to bet on a company worth a bit more than $2 trillion, and a number of last year's winners have struggled so far this year, like Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN).\nIn my last Apple article, I discussed how the company was becominga victim of its own success. Because the two earnings reports so far this year were so great, the thought process has shifted to can Apple ever do any better? In this case, I'm not talking about strict dollar amounts, but growth percentages. Look at the chart below, showing how once we hit the December 2021 (fiscal Q1 2022) quarter, revenue growth rates are expected to crash down.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha estimates page,seen here)\nI said previously that Apple bears would jump at the possibility of Apple announcing a revenue decline for the March 2022 fiscal quarter, even if it is due to the previous year being one of the best quarters we've ever seen. Fortunately, Apple's overall revenue trajectory remains strong, and I think management has a solid plan in place. Just like we saw with the iPad earlier this year, I think new storage options on this year's iPhones will allow for average selling price upside, offsetting some concerns of a supercycle sales slowdown.\nAlso, despite Apple having a great start to the year, Macmarket share wasonly 8% in calendar Q1, so imagine how much more room there is to grow in the PC space. I'm not concerned with a revenue blip every now and then if the long-term trajectory is still for more records, which is what most expectations call for in the coming years.\nThe second item I believe investors are a little worried about is the potential for rising taxes. The first part of this would obviously be higher taxes on the rich, especially capital gains taxes, that could limit investment in stocks. For Apple though, the issue would be higher corporate taxes, which obviously would impact the profit monster. For instance, the difference between an overall tax rate of 15% versus 18% for Apple in its fiscal 2022 year (based on current estimates) is roughly $3 billion in net income, or almost 20 cents in EPS. A nickel per quarter headwind makes it harder to impress investors, especially when you are coming off the best year in your history.\nIn a similar manner, investors are likely concerned about the potential rise in interest rates and ending of easy money policies around the globe. Stocks have been pushed to new all-time highs as a result, but what happens when the Fed starts to taper and other central banks follow suit? Apple shares had run to a forward P/E valuation in the low to mid 30s, well above themid-teens figure it was at just a few years ago.\nBut with the decline in shares from their highs and the rise in EPS estimates after two large beats, you are now paying about 24 times the next twelve months' expected EPS. That's not a terrible price to pay considering the total package, including the massive buyback, and theaverage analyst price targetrepresents more than $30 upside from current levels. Interestingly enough, rising interest rates are actually good further down the Apple income statement, as its $80 billion or so in net cash will generate a bit of extra interest.\nRight now, Apple shares are stuck in a trading range, as the chart below shows. The 50-day moving average (purple line) is forming resistance, while the 200-day (orange line) is forming support. The next major move can occur once Apple can get out of this channel, and investors are hoping it is to the upside, which could form the base to get the stock to new highs. If shares drop, the 50-day could cross below its longer-term counterpart, which would be the dreaded technical death cross.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nWhile Apple as a business has been firing on all cylinders lately, the same cannot be said for shares of the stock. After a massive multi-year rally, it seems that investors are worried about tough growth comparisons coming up, rising interest rates, and higher corporate taxes. While these fears are something to keep in mind, the valuation of the name has improved to a point where they should mostly be digested. Now, the stock just needs to break out of its recent trading range, and getting above the 50-day could be the catalyst to get the name going again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}