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ECB to keep money taps wide open even as recovery takes hold

FRANKFURT, June 10 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is all but certain to maintain a generous f

ECB to keep money taps wide open even as recovery takes hold

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And even as growth surges with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, policymakers appear keen to err on the side of caution.\nRecent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Fabio Panetta suggest the June discussion effectively ended even before Thursday's meeting, with a cut in bond purchases unlikely, even if policymakers acknowledge an improvement in growth prospects and the rapid pace of vaccinations.\nPanetta flatly rejected any reduction in emergency bond buys while Lagarde said it was \"far too early\" to discuss tapering the bank's 1.85 trillion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchases Programme (PEPP).\nWhile policymakers could still opt for a different course, they usually line up behind their president and rarely make changes to proposals brought to the table by the six-member Executive Board.\nWeak medium-term inflation prospects are the key rationale for maintaining copious support but policymakers are also concerned that borrowing costs are inching up, so that any retreat by the ECB might risk setting off potentially dangerous market volatility.\n\"The longer the ECB waits before it admits that the rationale to run its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme at full speed is no longer as strong as it was in March, the less gentle could the transition to fewer asset purchases be in the future,\" Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said.\n\"If so, bond yields could ratchet up more strongly after a while.\"\nEuro zone government bond yields were trading near their lowest levels since April on Thursday.\nSEPTEMBER\nFurther complicating the picture, the ECB is likely to nudge up most if not all of its growth and inflation forecasts and could even upgrade its guidance on growth, declaring risks \"balanced\" to replace a long-standing line about downside risks.\nInflation is also surging and last month exceeded the ECB's target of just under 2%, a mark it has undershot for most of the last decade.\nBut the economy will need another year just to grow back to its pre-pandemic level and the inflation jump is mostly a reversal of last year's energy price plunge, not the start of a new era of price pressures, policymakers have said.\nUnderlying price pressures, a key focus for the ECB, remain anaemic and wage growth is weak, pointing to excessively low inflation for years to come.\nEurope is also far behind the United States in its recovery so any withdrawal of support ahead of the Federal Reserve would be seen as a dangerous signal.\nU.S. inflation data, due to be published at 1230 GMT, is expected to show a 4.7% increase in prices last month, up from 4.2% in April, with a stronger reading likely to reignite speculation about fewer bond purchases from the Fed.\nWholesale prices in both Japan and China rose at their fastest pace in over a decade due to surging commodity prices.\n\"Given the markets' nervousness about taper talk and the ECB's firm wish to distance itself from the taper preparations in the U.S. over the summer, the ECB is likely to signal unchanged purchases until September,\" Anatoli Annenkov, an economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCGLF\">Societe Generale</a> said.\nBut the end of the emergency buys is coming and policymakers are unlikely to enlarge the scheme or extend it beyond its scheduled end in March 2022, given the economy's solid rebound, economists polled by Reuters said.\nThat will put pressure on policymakers to start plotting a course beyond the emergency bond buys. Some signals of that could come as soon as September, economists say.\nAs medium-term inflation prospects remain muted, decreasing buying under PEPP is likely to be accompanied by an expansion of the ECB's less flexible but open-ended Asset Purchase Programme and signals that some ECB support, even if less generous, will continue well into the future.\nThe ECB will announce its policy decision at 1145 GMT, followed by Lagarde's news conference at 1230 GMT. With Thursday's decision, the bank's deposit rate, its benchmark, will remain at minus 0.5%.\n(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Catherine Evans and Toby Chopra)","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ECB to keep money taps wide open even as recovery takes hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nECB to keep money taps wide open even as recovery takes hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nReuters \n2021-06-10 15:28\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\nFRANKFURT, June 10 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is all but certain to maintain a generous flow of stimulus when policymakers meet on Thursday, fearing that higher borrowing costs could smother a still nascent recovery.\nJust emerging from a pandemic-induced double-dip recession, the 19-country euro zone economy has relied on unprecedented ECB stimulus to stay afloat. And even as growth surges with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, policymakers appear keen to err on the side of caution.\nRecent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Fabio Panetta suggest the June discussion effectively ended even before Thursday's meeting, with a cut in bond purchases unlikely, even if policymakers acknowledge an improvement in growth prospects and the rapid pace of vaccinations.\nPanetta flatly rejected any reduction in emergency bond buys while Lagarde said it was \"far too early\" to discuss tapering the bank's 1.85 trillion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchases Programme (PEPP).\nWhile policymakers could still opt for a different course, they usually line up behind their president and rarely make changes to proposals brought to the table by the six-member Executive Board.\nWeak medium-term inflation prospects are the key rationale for maintaining copious support but policymakers are also concerned that borrowing costs are inching up, so that any retreat by the ECB might risk setting off potentially dangerous market volatility.\n\"The longer the ECB waits before it admits that the rationale to run its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme at full speed is no longer as strong as it was in March, the less gentle could the transition to fewer asset purchases be in the future,\" Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said.\n\"If so, bond yields could ratchet up more strongly after a while.\"\nEuro zone government bond yields were trading near their lowest levels since April on Thursday.\nSEPTEMBER\nFurther complicating the picture, the ECB is likely to nudge up most if not all of its growth and inflation forecasts and could even upgrade its guidance on growth, declaring risks \"balanced\" to replace a long-standing line about downside risks.\nInflation is also surging and last month exceeded the ECB's target of just under 2%, a mark it has undershot for most of the last decade.\nBut the economy will need another year just to grow back to its pre-pandemic level and the inflation jump is mostly a reversal of last year's energy price plunge, not the start of a new era of price pressures, policymakers have said.\nUnderlying price pressures, a key focus for the ECB, remain anaemic and wage growth is weak, pointing to excessively low inflation for years to come.\nEurope is also far behind the United States in its recovery so any withdrawal of support ahead of the Federal Reserve would be seen as a dangerous signal.\nU.S. inflation data, due to be published at 1230 GMT, is expected to show a 4.7% increase in prices last month, up from 4.2% in April, with a stronger reading likely to reignite speculation about fewer bond purchases from the Fed.\nWholesale prices in both Japan and China rose at their fastest pace in over a decade due to surging commodity prices.\n\"Given the markets' nervousness about taper talk and the ECB's firm wish to distance itself from the taper preparations in the U.S. over the summer, the ECB is likely to signal unchanged purchases until September,\" Anatoli Annenkov, an economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCGLF\">Societe Generale</a> said.\nBut the end of the emergency buys is coming and policymakers are unlikely to enlarge the scheme or extend it beyond its scheduled end in March 2022, given the economy's solid rebound, economists polled by Reuters said.\nThat will put pressure on policymakers to start plotting a course beyond the emergency bond buys. Some signals of that could come as soon as September, economists say.\nAs medium-term inflation prospects remain muted, decreasing buying under PEPP is likely to be accompanied by an expansion of the ECB's less flexible but open-ended Asset Purchase Programme and signals that some ECB support, even if less generous, will continue well into the future.\nThe ECB will announce its policy decision at 1145 GMT, followed by Lagarde's news conference at 1230 GMT. With Thursday's decision, the bank's deposit rate, its benchmark, will remain at minus 0.5%.\n(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Catherine Evans and Toby Chopra)\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142244006","content_text":"FRANKFURT, June 10 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is all but certain to maintain a generous flow of stimulus when policymakers meet on Thursday, fearing that higher borrowing costs could smother a still nascent recovery.\nJust emerging from a pandemic-induced double-dip recession, the 19-country euro zone economy has relied on unprecedented ECB stimulus to stay afloat. And even as growth surges with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, policymakers appear keen to err on the side of caution.\nRecent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Fabio Panetta suggest the June discussion effectively ended even before Thursday's meeting, with a cut in bond purchases unlikely, even if policymakers acknowledge an improvement in growth prospects and the rapid pace of vaccinations.\nPanetta flatly rejected any reduction in emergency bond buys while Lagarde said it was \"far too early\" to discuss tapering the bank's 1.85 trillion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchases Programme (PEPP).\nWhile policymakers could still opt for a different course, they usually line up behind their president and rarely make changes to proposals brought to the table by the six-member Executive Board.\nWeak medium-term inflation prospects are the key rationale for maintaining copious support but policymakers are also concerned that borrowing costs are inching up, so that any retreat by the ECB might risk setting off potentially dangerous market volatility.\n\"The longer the ECB waits before it admits that the rationale to run its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme at full speed is no longer as strong as it was in March, the less gentle could the transition to fewer asset purchases be in the future,\" Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said.\n\"If so, bond yields could ratchet up more strongly after a while.\"\nEuro zone government bond yields were trading near their lowest levels since April on Thursday.\nSEPTEMBER\nFurther complicating the picture, the ECB is likely to nudge up most if not all of its growth and inflation forecasts and could even upgrade its guidance on growth, declaring risks \"balanced\" to replace a long-standing line about downside risks.\nInflation is also surging and last month exceeded the ECB's target of just under 2%, a mark it has undershot for most of the last decade.\nBut the economy will need another year just to grow back to its pre-pandemic level and the inflation jump is mostly a reversal of last year's energy price plunge, not the start of a new era of price pressures, policymakers have said.\nUnderlying price pressures, a key focus for the ECB, remain anaemic and wage growth is weak, pointing to excessively low inflation for years to come.\nEurope is also far behind the United States in its recovery so any withdrawal of support ahead of the Federal Reserve would be seen as a dangerous signal.\nU.S. inflation data, due to be published at 1230 GMT, is expected to show a 4.7% increase in prices last month, up from 4.2% in April, with a stronger reading likely to reignite speculation about fewer bond purchases from the Fed.\nWholesale prices in both Japan and China rose at their fastest pace in over a decade due to surging commodity prices.\n\"Given the markets' nervousness about taper talk and the ECB's firm wish to distance itself from the taper preparations in the U.S. over the summer, the ECB is likely to signal unchanged purchases until September,\" Anatoli Annenkov, an economist at Societe Generale said.\nBut the end of the emergency buys is coming and policymakers are unlikely to enlarge the scheme or extend it beyond its scheduled end in March 2022, given the economy's solid rebound, economists polled by Reuters said.\nThat will put pressure on policymakers to start plotting a course beyond the emergency bond buys. Some signals of that could come as soon as September, economists say.\nAs medium-term inflation prospects remain muted, decreasing buying under PEPP is likely to be accompanied by an expansion of the ECB's less flexible but open-ended Asset Purchase Programme and signals that some ECB support, even if less generous, will continue well into the future.\nThe ECB will announce its policy decision at 1145 GMT, followed by Lagarde's news conference at 1230 GMT. With Thursday's decision, the bank's deposit rate, its benchmark, will remain at minus 0.5%.\n(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Catherine Evans and Toby Chopra)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}