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2021-07-20

Will market crash?

Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry

A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, tha

Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":171713003,"tweetId":"171713003","gmtCreate":1626763657102,"gmtModify":1633771248774,"author":{"id":4089547899638310,"idStr":"4089547899638310","authorId":4089547899638310,"authorIdStr":"4089547899638310","name":"Yogiman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9da3026816d2d7223cd50a9dd90b7476","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Will market crash?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Will market crash?</p></body></html>","text":"Will market crash?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171713003","repostId":1140799023,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140799023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626759279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140799023?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 13:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140799023","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, tha","content":"<p>A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, that has created inflation 12 months on as the economy reopens and rebounds. Now the market seems to believe that a resurgence of the pandemic will rein in inflation before it grows out of control. No one disputes that inflation has arrived. The question is where it’s heading.</p>\n<p>The most basic fact is that June’s “headline” consumer price index, including everything the government puts in its representative basket of products and services that Americans buy, stands at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years barring one month in the summer of 2008 when oil reached nearly $150 per barrel. Exclude food and fuel, always variable, and inflation still comes in at 4.5% — its highest in three decades by far. Even if the most extreme movers both up and down are stripped out, inflation stands at 2.9%, its worst since 1992 (barring a few months of very expensive oil). Those numbers would seem to validate the doomsayers.</p>\n<p>Yet bond markets and economists take the opposite view. They see inflation not only coming under control but eventually falling to levels lower than before the pandemic hit. The bond market’s best estimate of the average inflation rate for the next 10 years stands at 2.3%, which is roughly where it’s been for four months even as other numbers have gotten worse. The yield curve — the extra yield that investors demand for 10-year bonds rather than 2-year bonds, which generally rises when people expect higher inflation — is now below 1%. That’s less than its average for the last decade, a period when inflation hasn’t been a problem. Indeed, it’s no higher than it was in February.</p>\n<p>Either market players remain confident that the Federal Reserve can keep rising prices under control, or they’re worried the economy won’t keep growing fast enough to push inflation numbers higher. Those concerns are definitely increasing as the delta variant shows its ability to slow economic reopening.</p>\n<p>Our dashboard of indicators aims to add clarity to this debate. Inflation is a complex phenomenon that grows from many places. These 35 key measures offer up a more nuanced picture of how markets are positioned, what the official data say and what consumers and businesses are discounting. Numbers are current as of Monday, July 19 and will be updated weekly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adee36e07b6919f5636c61bcddc3afcb\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Flashing alarmingly bright are the official data, as well as surveys of businesses and consumers. The latest survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, of prices paid by small companies, is at a level it last reached all the way back in the first quarter of 1981. Yet showing no concern at all are market indicators and Bloomberg’s surveys of expert economists’ predictions. Both are below their averages for the last decade.</p>\n<p>Resolution should come in two categories that remain finely balanced: prices and wages. These factors drove inflation higher in the 1970s and could do so again. Prices of futures for oil, agriculture and metals have all given up ground after rising very sharply from last year’s lows. But the raw industrials index, which includes basic commodities that aren’t in the futures markets, continues to rise and is nearing its historic top from more than a decade ago.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, although wage growth remains well within its recent ranges, the pay of low-skilled workers is picking up and employers are complaining that they cannot fill jobs, which could imply wage inflation ahead. The decisive factor could be if a new pandemic-related downturn weakens demand, as well as the hand of labor, again. That would be bad news, but at least it would avert an extended bout of inflation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e71f075b43fcaeb158fd768e81345b8\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">June’s inflation data delivered a third nasty shock in succession. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE deflator, is also at its highest level since 1992. Meanwhile, headline inflation (including fuel and food) is at 5% for the first time since the oil price spike of 2008. Producer price inflation is also high. These are sudden moves and the more muted rise in the “trimmed mean” measure, which excludes goods that have suffered the most extreme changes in price, suggests that it is indeed mainly a transitory effect from the pandemic. But it will still be a relief if next month’s data can show a significant retreat in some of the sectors that were hit by extreme inflation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f56e14f20907601eea311f677649c5\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is deepening concern over shelter inflation, the single biggest component of the CPI index, which is now up to 2.3% and will likely rise further as higher house prices pull up rents in their wake. This will be particularly closely watched. But the most extreme transitory effects of the pandemic are otherwise beginning to ease. Car rental prices, for example, are now “only” 88% higher than they were 12 months ago, having previously topped 100%.&nbsp;Several sectors which suffered a deflationary blow from the pandemic are still not seeing prices recover. Recreation inflation is still negative. And — heaven be praised — college-tuition inflation remains close to its lowest since records began in 1979, although it did tick up slightly in June. It is still just about possible to sustain an optimistic narrative that the pandemic caused extraordinary inflation in some pockets of the economy but might have brought sanity to others where prices had grown prohibitive.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacb4482c44ce01dc5be1582e8932f5a\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bond market, where traders make their most precise predictions of inflation, has been in flux all year. Four months ago, 5-year breakevens topped 2.75%, virtually matching their high during the 2008 oil price spike. Since then they have dropped below 2.4%, although the latest data returned them to 2.6% — higher than they were at any point between 2010 and 2020. Meanwhile, expectations for the years from 2026 to 2031 have fallen to 2.16%, suggesting confidence that the Fed will be able to rein in inflation over the next five years. The heat map is based on the 20-day moving average of the breakevens, to avoid being too affected by day-to-day movements, which have been violent in the last few weeks. Nobody is positioned for the Fed to lose control of inflation anytime soon, nor for Germany or Japan to snap out of their disinflationary malaise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e052d83b8f96767e4b22170b4455ffd8\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These numbers offer perhaps the greatest support for the case that inflation is a near and present danger. All are way above their ranges for the last decade. The small business survey shows inflation expectations at their highest in four decades, while the Institute for Supply Management numbers are at post-2008 highs&nbsp;and still rising in the latest number produced at the beginning of July — although the survey for the services sector did show a slight decline. Consumer expectations have also risen very sharply, to their highest since the commodity price spike before the financial crisis, with the latest Conference Board survey reaching a fresh high for this cycle. This could be transitory but, if so, the numbers need to come down soon.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503a1ccabd574d899752b5acb9d3900b\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Rising commodity prices represent exactly the kind of inflation that can attack living standards. But, given the economic collapse a year ago and the rush by speculators to get a leveraged play on the rebound, they don’t give firm evidence of inflation that is more than transitory. Metals prices are about 6% below their May peak, while energy prices have also dropped by about 6% as the OPEC+ cartel tries to sort out its problems; it’s not at all clear the latter are locked into an inflationary expansion. One increasingly ominous warning sign comes from the Commodities Research Board raw industrials index, which covers basic commodities that aren’t in the futures market. In theory, these prices should be driven by supply-and-demand dynamics in the real world, not by ebbs and flows of emotion in the markets. The index has gained more than 50% in a year and is nearing an all-time high.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037e6afcf827db9373c9fa59e7d762f7\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a crucial driver of inflation and, from the official data, it appears to be under control despite a number of factors that would normally drive salaries and wages upwards. Most measures of wage inflation are running below their average for the last five years, with the Atlanta Fed putting overall wage growth at 3.2%. Yet, job vacancies are at an all-time record, while small businesses complain that they have never found it harder to recruit workers. This suggests a problem with skill mismatches coming out of the recession. At the same time, while average hourly earnings have been quite variable over the last few months, the latest number shows them increasing at the fastest rate since 2009. The ongoing wage tracker kept by the Atlanta Fed shows that wage inflation for low-skilled workers has reached 3.6%, close to its highest since the global financial crisis. The National Federation of Independent Business finds the highest proportion of its members raising pay since they started asking the question in 1984.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbee8b94aaefef4fa3e232c198af27cd\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Broadly, the consensus is that the Fed, like other central banks, will get what it wants. The Fed is forecasting Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) of 3% for this year but expects it to decline to 2% in 2023; in other words, it will be transitory. The experts are less anxious for now and think it will reach 2.5% this year and decline in the two following years — more or less perfect for the Fed, which is prepared to let inflation “run hot.” German inflation, after a bobble this year, is expected to fall back to 1.7% in 2023; there’s no sign of a new reflationary cycle there or in Japan, or even China. Whatever markets say, the experts are still more worried about deflation.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 13:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, that has created inflation 12 months on as the economy reopens and rebounds. Now the market seems to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140799023","content_text":"A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, that has created inflation 12 months on as the economy reopens and rebounds. Now the market seems to believe that a resurgence of the pandemic will rein in inflation before it grows out of control. No one disputes that inflation has arrived. The question is where it’s heading.\nThe most basic fact is that June’s “headline” consumer price index, including everything the government puts in its representative basket of products and services that Americans buy, stands at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years barring one month in the summer of 2008 when oil reached nearly $150 per barrel. Exclude food and fuel, always variable, and inflation still comes in at 4.5% — its highest in three decades by far. Even if the most extreme movers both up and down are stripped out, inflation stands at 2.9%, its worst since 1992 (barring a few months of very expensive oil). Those numbers would seem to validate the doomsayers.\nYet bond markets and economists take the opposite view. They see inflation not only coming under control but eventually falling to levels lower than before the pandemic hit. The bond market’s best estimate of the average inflation rate for the next 10 years stands at 2.3%, which is roughly where it’s been for four months even as other numbers have gotten worse. The yield curve — the extra yield that investors demand for 10-year bonds rather than 2-year bonds, which generally rises when people expect higher inflation — is now below 1%. That’s less than its average for the last decade, a period when inflation hasn’t been a problem. Indeed, it’s no higher than it was in February.\nEither market players remain confident that the Federal Reserve can keep rising prices under control, or they’re worried the economy won’t keep growing fast enough to push inflation numbers higher. Those concerns are definitely increasing as the delta variant shows its ability to slow economic reopening.\nOur dashboard of indicators aims to add clarity to this debate. Inflation is a complex phenomenon that grows from many places. These 35 key measures offer up a more nuanced picture of how markets are positioned, what the official data say and what consumers and businesses are discounting. Numbers are current as of Monday, July 19 and will be updated weekly.\nFlashing alarmingly bright are the official data, as well as surveys of businesses and consumers. The latest survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, of prices paid by small companies, is at a level it last reached all the way back in the first quarter of 1981. Yet showing no concern at all are market indicators and Bloomberg’s surveys of expert economists’ predictions. Both are below their averages for the last decade.\nResolution should come in two categories that remain finely balanced: prices and wages. These factors drove inflation higher in the 1970s and could do so again. Prices of futures for oil, agriculture and metals have all given up ground after rising very sharply from last year’s lows. But the raw industrials index, which includes basic commodities that aren’t in the futures markets, continues to rise and is nearing its historic top from more than a decade ago.\nMeanwhile, although wage growth remains well within its recent ranges, the pay of low-skilled workers is picking up and employers are complaining that they cannot fill jobs, which could imply wage inflation ahead. The decisive factor could be if a new pandemic-related downturn weakens demand, as well as the hand of labor, again. That would be bad news, but at least it would avert an extended bout of inflation.\nJune’s inflation data delivered a third nasty shock in succession. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE deflator, is also at its highest level since 1992. Meanwhile, headline inflation (including fuel and food) is at 5% for the first time since the oil price spike of 2008. Producer price inflation is also high. These are sudden moves and the more muted rise in the “trimmed mean” measure, which excludes goods that have suffered the most extreme changes in price, suggests that it is indeed mainly a transitory effect from the pandemic. But it will still be a relief if next month’s data can show a significant retreat in some of the sectors that were hit by extreme inflation.\nThere is deepening concern over shelter inflation, the single biggest component of the CPI index, which is now up to 2.3% and will likely rise further as higher house prices pull up rents in their wake. This will be particularly closely watched. But the most extreme transitory effects of the pandemic are otherwise beginning to ease. Car rental prices, for example, are now “only” 88% higher than they were 12 months ago, having previously topped 100%. Several sectors which suffered a deflationary blow from the pandemic are still not seeing prices recover. Recreation inflation is still negative. And — heaven be praised — college-tuition inflation remains close to its lowest since records began in 1979, although it did tick up slightly in June. It is still just about possible to sustain an optimistic narrative that the pandemic caused extraordinary inflation in some pockets of the economy but might have brought sanity to others where prices had grown prohibitive.\nThe bond market, where traders make their most precise predictions of inflation, has been in flux all year. Four months ago, 5-year breakevens topped 2.75%, virtually matching their high during the 2008 oil price spike. Since then they have dropped below 2.4%, although the latest data returned them to 2.6% — higher than they were at any point between 2010 and 2020. Meanwhile, expectations for the years from 2026 to 2031 have fallen to 2.16%, suggesting confidence that the Fed will be able to rein in inflation over the next five years. The heat map is based on the 20-day moving average of the breakevens, to avoid being too affected by day-to-day movements, which have been violent in the last few weeks. Nobody is positioned for the Fed to lose control of inflation anytime soon, nor for Germany or Japan to snap out of their disinflationary malaise.\nThese numbers offer perhaps the greatest support for the case that inflation is a near and present danger. All are way above their ranges for the last decade. The small business survey shows inflation expectations at their highest in four decades, while the Institute for Supply Management numbers are at post-2008 highs and still rising in the latest number produced at the beginning of July — although the survey for the services sector did show a slight decline. Consumer expectations have also risen very sharply, to their highest since the commodity price spike before the financial crisis, with the latest Conference Board survey reaching a fresh high for this cycle. This could be transitory but, if so, the numbers need to come down soon.\n\nRising commodity prices represent exactly the kind of inflation that can attack living standards. But, given the economic collapse a year ago and the rush by speculators to get a leveraged play on the rebound, they don’t give firm evidence of inflation that is more than transitory. Metals prices are about 6% below their May peak, while energy prices have also dropped by about 6% as the OPEC+ cartel tries to sort out its problems; it’s not at all clear the latter are locked into an inflationary expansion. One increasingly ominous warning sign comes from the Commodities Research Board raw industrials index, which covers basic commodities that aren’t in the futures market. In theory, these prices should be driven by supply-and-demand dynamics in the real world, not by ebbs and flows of emotion in the markets. The index has gained more than 50% in a year and is nearing an all-time high.\n\nWage inflation is a crucial driver of inflation and, from the official data, it appears to be under control despite a number of factors that would normally drive salaries and wages upwards. Most measures of wage inflation are running below their average for the last five years, with the Atlanta Fed putting overall wage growth at 3.2%. Yet, job vacancies are at an all-time record, while small businesses complain that they have never found it harder to recruit workers. This suggests a problem with skill mismatches coming out of the recession. At the same time, while average hourly earnings have been quite variable over the last few months, the latest number shows them increasing at the fastest rate since 2009. The ongoing wage tracker kept by the Atlanta Fed shows that wage inflation for low-skilled workers has reached 3.6%, close to its highest since the global financial crisis. The National Federation of Independent Business finds the highest proportion of its members raising pay since they started asking the question in 1984.\n\nBroadly, the consensus is that the Fed, like other central banks, will get what it wants. The Fed is forecasting Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) of 3% for this year but expects it to decline to 2% in 2023; in other words, it will be transitory. The experts are less anxious for now and think it will reach 2.5% this year and decline in the two following years — more or less perfect for the Fed, which is prepared to let inflation “run hot.” German inflation, after a bobble this year, is expected to fall back to 1.7% in 2023; there’s no sign of a new reflationary cycle there or in Japan, or even China. Whatever markets say, the experts are still more worried about deflation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}