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2021-06-16

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Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

It’s Fed day, China tries to control commodity prices, and inflation worries remain. Guidance The Fe

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

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That decision will be accompanied by new economic projections, with the “dot plot” expected by some tosignal a 2023 rate hike. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may emphasize theunevenness of the recoveryin his press conference at 2:30 p.m. Investors are likely to be more interested&nbsp;in any comments on the possible start of conversations at the bankabout tapering asset purchases.</p>\n<p><b>Control</b></p>\n<p>China has ordered state-owned enterprises tolimit their exposure to overseas commodities marketsas the country steps up itscampaign to rein in speculation. Authorities also announced they will soon release zinc, copper and aluminum from the secretive national stockpile. It is the first release of reserves in years, with the announcement causing a drop in metal prices in London and Shanghai, and a selloff in mining shares in Australia. China’s move comes as many parts of the commodity market that had surged recently are&nbsp;already starting to cool.</p>\n<p><b>Inflation</b></p>\n<p>Consumer prices in theU.K. rose 2.1%from a year earlier in May, the highest since July 2019. The faster-than-forecast pace increased speculation about the timing of Bank of England tightening. Following the high U.S. reading last week, there remains speculation onhow transitory any inflation event will be. One of the main drivers of the headline number is energy prices, and withoil trading above $72 a barrelthis morning, there seems to be little chance of relief on that front.</p>\n<p><b>Markets quiet</b></p>\n<p>Global equities are relatively calm as investors wait for today’s Fed decision and press conference. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3% while Japan’s Topix index closed little changed. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.1% higher at 5:50 a.m. with miners and banks among the biggest losers. S&amp;P 500 futurespointed to a quiet open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.489% andgold was flat.</p>\n<p><b>Coming up...</b></p>\n<p>U.S. May housing starts and import and export prices are at 8:30 a.m. Canadian CPI for the month is also at that time. Oil inventory data is at 10:30 a.m. The Fed decision is at 2:00 p.m., with Brazil’s central bank expected tohike rates againat 5:30 p.m. President Joe Bidenmeets Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Geneva. A bipartisan group of senators is expected&nbsp;to release thetext of their infrastructure plan.</p>\n<p><b>What we've been reading</b></p>\n<p><i>Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The difference between adigital dollar and a CBDC.</li>\n <li>$100 billion of stablecoins is starting tomake policymakers nervous.</li>\n <li>There’s abig divergence&nbsp;developingin inflation expectations.</li>\n <li>Airbnb is spending millions of dollars tomake nightmares go away.</li>\n <li>Europe’s biggest debt collector seesrise in late payments.</li>\n <li>Startups race Microsoft to find ways tocool data centers.</li>\n <li>Strange blinking starnear heart of Milky Way catches scientists’ eyes.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in&nbsp;this morning</b></p>\n<p>The Fed is going to get most of the attention today, but it's not the only big monetary authority that's going to make news. Also up today is the Central Bank of Brazil, which is expected to do a 75 basis point hike, bringing its main policy rate above 4%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd95e35cc47a2b518d65a9746eed492\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As in other countries, Brazil slashed rates during the crisis. But unlike in many other places, it's already begun an aggressive rate hike campaign in order to fight inflation. The problem is these rate hikes haven't accomplished much.</p>\n<p>There's a great piece you should read from my Bloomberg colleague Maria Eloisa Capurroabout how despite the hawkish stance of BCB chief Roberto Campos Neto, inflation and inflation expectations in the country continue to rise unabated.</p>\n<p>The problem is that some of the main drivers of inflation are simply beyond the obvious control of the central bank: commodity prices are soaring around the world, and there's been a nearly once-in-a-century drought that's driving up electricity prices. (As much as 70% of Brazil’s&nbsp;energy mix depends onhydroelectricity.)</p>\n<p>But all this just then gets back to a general debate, which applies to Brazil, the U.S., and basically everywhere else: Is turning dials up at the central bank a powerful macro stability tool? In the U.S. we have high inflation readings (at least compared to recent history) but there's a good argument to be made that they're driven by idiosyncratic factors, like the semiconductor shortage and the reopening period. As for the global commodities boom, a huge factor there has been aggressive buying of all types of goods from China (though that buying may be starting to wane).</p>\n<p>There is one obvious way that any central bank can tame inflation: Hike rates so high that you induce a depression, demand plunges and the price of everything collapses. But aside from that, yes, you can sum up a bunch of disparate categories and put them in an index called \"CPI\" or \"PCE\". 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That decision will be accompanied by new economic projections, with the “dot plot” expected by some tosignal a 2023 rate hike. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may emphasize theunevenness of the recoveryin his press conference at 2:30 p.m. Investors are likely to be more interested in any comments on the possible start of conversations at the bankabout tapering asset purchases.\nControl\nChina has ordered state-owned enterprises tolimit their exposure to overseas commodities marketsas the country steps up itscampaign to rein in speculation. Authorities also announced they will soon release zinc, copper and aluminum from the secretive national stockpile. It is the first release of reserves in years, with the announcement causing a drop in metal prices in London and Shanghai, and a selloff in mining shares in Australia. China’s move comes as many parts of the commodity market that had surged recently are already starting to cool.\nInflation\nConsumer prices in theU.K. rose 2.1%from a year earlier in May, the highest since July 2019. The faster-than-forecast pace increased speculation about the timing of Bank of England tightening. Following the high U.S. reading last week, there remains speculation onhow transitory any inflation event will be. One of the main drivers of the headline number is energy prices, and withoil trading above $72 a barrelthis morning, there seems to be little chance of relief on that front.\nMarkets quiet\nGlobal equities are relatively calm as investors wait for today’s Fed decision and press conference. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3% while Japan’s Topix index closed little changed. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.1% higher at 5:50 a.m. with miners and banks among the biggest losers. S&P 500 futurespointed to a quiet open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.489% andgold was flat.\nComing up...\nU.S. May housing starts and import and export prices are at 8:30 a.m. Canadian CPI for the month is also at that time. Oil inventory data is at 10:30 a.m. The Fed decision is at 2:00 p.m., with Brazil’s central bank expected tohike rates againat 5:30 p.m. President Joe Bidenmeets Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Geneva. A bipartisan group of senators is expected to release thetext of their infrastructure plan.\nWhat we've been reading\nHere's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.\n\nThe difference between adigital dollar and a CBDC.\n$100 billion of stablecoins is starting tomake policymakers nervous.\nThere’s abig divergence developingin inflation expectations.\nAirbnb is spending millions of dollars tomake nightmares go away.\nEurope’s biggest debt collector seesrise in late payments.\nStartups race Microsoft to find ways tocool data centers.\nStrange blinking starnear heart of Milky Way catches scientists’ eyes.\n\nAnd finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning\nThe Fed is going to get most of the attention today, but it's not the only big monetary authority that's going to make news. Also up today is the Central Bank of Brazil, which is expected to do a 75 basis point hike, bringing its main policy rate above 4%.\n\nAs in other countries, Brazil slashed rates during the crisis. But unlike in many other places, it's already begun an aggressive rate hike campaign in order to fight inflation. The problem is these rate hikes haven't accomplished much.\nThere's a great piece you should read from my Bloomberg colleague Maria Eloisa Capurroabout how despite the hawkish stance of BCB chief Roberto Campos Neto, inflation and inflation expectations in the country continue to rise unabated.\nThe problem is that some of the main drivers of inflation are simply beyond the obvious control of the central bank: commodity prices are soaring around the world, and there's been a nearly once-in-a-century drought that's driving up electricity prices. (As much as 70% of Brazil’s energy mix depends onhydroelectricity.)\nBut all this just then gets back to a general debate, which applies to Brazil, the U.S., and basically everywhere else: Is turning dials up at the central bank a powerful macro stability tool? In the U.S. we have high inflation readings (at least compared to recent history) but there's a good argument to be made that they're driven by idiosyncratic factors, like the semiconductor shortage and the reopening period. As for the global commodities boom, a huge factor there has been aggressive buying of all types of goods from China (though that buying may be starting to wane).\nThere is one obvious way that any central bank can tame inflation: Hike rates so high that you induce a depression, demand plunges and the price of everything collapses. But aside from that, yes, you can sum up a bunch of disparate categories and put them in an index called \"CPI\" or \"PCE\". But underlying all this is a bunch of unique events (a drought, Chinese commodity stockpiling, a semiconductor shortage, etc.) that are not well addressed with a blunt tool like interest rates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

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