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2021-06-30

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IBM Stock Is a Lot More Attractive as It Refocuses and Trims Down

IBM is still stuck with a dividend, but at least it now has a strategy that makes sense In the nearl

IBM Stock Is a Lot More Attractive as It Refocuses and Trims Down

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IBM stock has delivered $27.60/share in dividends to its investors.\nThis means IBM stock has delivered a total return of 20% to the “widows and orphans” who hold the stock.\nIt also means roughly $24.5 billion in cash flow has flown out the door, uninvested.\nThat’s the problem with dividends in our technology age. There’s an old tech saying that if you’re handing out dividends you don’t have anything better to do with the investors’ money.\nCloud Czars like&nbsp;Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), founded in 2004 and now worth $1 trillion, use cash flow for capital spending instead. This benefits investors more.\nIf you’re thinking of buying IBM, you’re hoping this error ends after its managed infrastructure business,Kyndryl, becomes independent late this year.\nYou’re hoping the dividend ceases to be an issue.\nA Closer Look at IBM Stock\nKyndryl is expected to generate roughly&nbsp;$19 billion&nbsp;in sales per year when it’s spun out, into offices atop a skyscraper&nbsp;next to Grand Central Station. What remains will have roughly $54 billion in revenue and claim leadership in “hybrid cloud.”\nThis could be the right time for such a move, as many companies are coming down with cloud “sticker shock.”\nAccording to analysts at Andreesen Horowitz’s new online publication&nbsp;Future,cloud margins compress over time. Companies that adopt the hybrid cloud model could end up saving $500 billion/year.\nThis would be the sweet spot for the new IBM, and the Achilles heel of companies like&nbsp;Amazon.Com(NASDAQ:AMZN). Questions of where data is located, called&nbsp;cloud sovereignty, can complicate matters, but IBM thrives on such complexity.\nInvestors Walk Away\nMost investors don’t recognize the opportunities, at least regarding IBM.Hedge funds have been walking away&nbsp;from the stock. Tipranks lists just eight analysts following IBM,only half of whom want you to buy it.\nBut there are signs of a turnaround. IBM next reports earnings on July 19. Analysts expect revenue of $18.29 billion and earnings of&nbsp;$2.25/share.\nThe March quarter,which beat estimates, saw $1.06/share of net income on revenue of $17.7 billion.\nIf IBM can hit its estimates investors could see&nbsp;an historic breakout, according to Alan Farley of&nbsp;FX Empire.\nIBM’s stock price has been falling for years, to as low as $91/share at the height of last year’s pandemic. Investors who bought then have seen a gain of around 52%, but the NASDAQ’s gain has been 108%.\nIBM Strategy\nIBM’s strategy heading into the spin-off will be based on “industry clouds,” &nbsp;something also being embraced by Cloud Czars&nbsp;Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT) and&nbsp;Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL).\nIBM’s hope is that hybrid cloud will become&nbsp;a default corporate IT design, seeking to make internal systems as efficient as cloud.\nWhile IBM does have its own cloud, it’s miniscule compared with those of the giants. Synergy Research says IBM is now fifthin the global cloud rental market, having been passed by&nbsp;Alibaba Group Holding(NASDAQ:BABA).\nBut its relatively small size may not be a hindrance if it’s also dedicated to building out clouds for clients and moving workloads for cost efficiency.\nThe Bottom Line\nIf you look up IBM in the news, you won’t see much focus on its hybrid cloud strategy. Instead you might read about&nbsp;storage systems, aboutquantum computers, about&nbsp;government contracts&nbsp;ordisputes with its old chip foundry.\nBut don’t be fooled. IBM now has a strategy, to off-load the dividend, and focus on hybrid cloud. 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IBM stock has delivered $27.60/share in dividends to its investors.\nThis means IBM stock has delivered a total return of 20% to the “widows and orphans” who hold the stock.\nIt also means roughly $24.5 billion in cash flow has flown out the door, uninvested.\nThat’s the problem with dividends in our technology age. There’s an old tech saying that if you’re handing out dividends you don’t have anything better to do with the investors’ money.\nCloud Czars like Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), founded in 2004 and now worth $1 trillion, use cash flow for capital spending instead. This benefits investors more.\nIf you’re thinking of buying IBM, you’re hoping this error ends after its managed infrastructure business,Kyndryl, becomes independent late this year.\nYou’re hoping the dividend ceases to be an issue.\nA Closer Look at IBM Stock\nKyndryl is expected to generate roughly $19 billion in sales per year when it’s spun out, into offices atop a skyscraper next to Grand Central Station. What remains will have roughly $54 billion in revenue and claim leadership in “hybrid cloud.”\nThis could be the right time for such a move, as many companies are coming down with cloud “sticker shock.”\nAccording to analysts at Andreesen Horowitz’s new online publication Future,cloud margins compress over time. Companies that adopt the hybrid cloud model could end up saving $500 billion/year.\nThis would be the sweet spot for the new IBM, and the Achilles heel of companies like Amazon.Com(NASDAQ:AMZN). Questions of where data is located, called cloud sovereignty, can complicate matters, but IBM thrives on such complexity.\nInvestors Walk Away\nMost investors don’t recognize the opportunities, at least regarding IBM.Hedge funds have been walking away from the stock. Tipranks lists just eight analysts following IBM,only half of whom want you to buy it.\nBut there are signs of a turnaround. IBM next reports earnings on July 19. Analysts expect revenue of $18.29 billion and earnings of $2.25/share.\nThe March quarter,which beat estimates, saw $1.06/share of net income on revenue of $17.7 billion.\nIf IBM can hit its estimates investors could see an historic breakout, according to Alan Farley of FX Empire.\nIBM’s stock price has been falling for years, to as low as $91/share at the height of last year’s pandemic. Investors who bought then have seen a gain of around 52%, but the NASDAQ’s gain has been 108%.\nIBM Strategy\nIBM’s strategy heading into the spin-off will be based on “industry clouds,”  something also being embraced by Cloud Czars Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL).\nIBM’s hope is that hybrid cloud will become a default corporate IT design, seeking to make internal systems as efficient as cloud.\nWhile IBM does have its own cloud, it’s miniscule compared with those of the giants. Synergy Research says IBM is now fifthin the global cloud rental market, having been passed by Alibaba Group Holding(NASDAQ:BABA).\nBut its relatively small size may not be a hindrance if it’s also dedicated to building out clouds for clients and moving workloads for cost efficiency.\nThe Bottom Line\nIf you look up IBM in the news, you won’t see much focus on its hybrid cloud strategy. Instead you might read about storage systems, aboutquantum computers, about government contracts ordisputes with its old chip foundry.\nBut don’t be fooled. IBM now has a strategy, to off-load the dividend, and focus on hybrid cloud. If it works, and it might, it could be “IBM to the Moon.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

IBM Stock Is a Lot More Attractive as It Refocuses and Trims Down

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