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2021-06-30

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Tom Lee raises 2021 forecast for the S&P 500, but warns of a tumultuous July

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee just hiked his S&P 500 forecast for the end of the year, but warned July could b

Tom Lee raises 2021 forecast for the S&P 500, but warns of a tumultuous July

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTom Lee raises 2021 forecast for the S&P 500, but warns of a tumultuous July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 22:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/tom-lee-raises-2021-forecast-for-the-sp-500-but-warns-of-a-tumultuous-july-.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundstrat’s Tom Lee just hiked his S&P 500 forecast for the end of the year, but warned July could be a rough ride.\nLee — known for correctly predicting the stock market’s dramatic ups and downs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/tom-lee-raises-2021-forecast-for-the-sp-500-but-warns-of-a-tumultuous-july-.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/tom-lee-raises-2021-forecast-for-the-sp-500-but-warns-of-a-tumultuous-july-.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1197424193","content_text":"Fundstrat’s Tom Lee just hiked his S&P 500 forecast for the end of the year, but warned July could be a rough ride.\nLee — known for correctly predicting the stock market’s dramatic ups and downs during the pandemic — now expects the S&P 500 to reach 4,600 by the end of 2021, up from his previous forecast of 4,300. The new level implies a more than 7% rally for the second half with the 500-stock average sitting around 4,290.\nLee expects the economy to continue to gain momentum, earnings to continue to beat estimates, strong credit and stable rates, the Federal Reserve to stick with its easy policies, fiscal stimulus from the White House and a normalizing of volatility.\n\nThe S&P 500 is up more than 14% this year, which Lee notes would be a solid gain for a full trading year, let alone 6 months. However, historical data shows that “strong markets stay strong,” Lee noted.\nData show that second half returns are the strongest in years when the first half is also the strongest.\n“In fact, since 1928, and ex-recessions (more impressive), this ranks as nearly one of the 10 best ever starts (technically would be #11),” Lee told clients.\nThe new Covid delta variant as well as the potential for a choppy July are the two main reasons for investors to say on their toes in this market, said Lee. He added that the delta variant shouldn’t cause another series of economic lockdowns.\nRocky July?\nFundstrat’s data analysis also shines light on the potential for a tough July ahead.\n“July could be a brutal month,” said Lee. “July returns are actually mostly poor and July returns are worse when 1H is strong.”\nWhen the S&P 500 is up more than 13% (which it is) in the first half, the month of July typically yields 0.4%, according to Fundstrat. Plus, the win-ratio is only 50%.\n“So July has a lower probability of rising and a lower overall return when 1H is >13%.  This could be seen as a form of market payback.  So we would default to expecting July to be somewhat choppy,” added Lee.\nStock picks from Lee\nDespite what could be a tumultuous July, Lee is sticking with his trusty group of “epicenter” stocks to finish out the year. The epicenter list is a group of companies that were hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic that Lee sees continuing to lead the market comeback.\nNames likeUber,Advance Auto Parts,Best Buy,MGM Resorts,Hilton Worldwide,Marriott International,Norwegian Cruise Line,Royal Caribbean,GapandGeneral Electricare so-called epicenter stocks.\nFundstrat forecasts epicenter stocks will drive bout half of the point gained in the second half. The rest of the points should be lead by energy and technology stocks.\nLee noted Amazon, Apple and Visa are up 6%, 2% and 4%, respectively, in 2021, but “if the S&P 500 is up +23% for the full year, shouldn’t some of these stocks have double-digit gains?,” Lee asked. “If so, then FAANG/Technology will play a big role in the points gained in 2H2021.”\nFundstrat also likesAmazon,Alphabet,Tesla,Biogen,Apple,Microsoft,PayPal,eBay,MicronandNvidiain his “Granny shots” basket of core stocks based on thematic and tactical portfolios.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}