$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$PLTR is a great company and is very likely to remain a mission-critical component of US government technical infrastructure for the foreseeable future. That alone gives the business significant stability concerning its future and will likely lead to strong growth.
However, stock-based compensation and lingering uncertainty about the long-term competitive strength of its Foundry platform are the main overhangs weighing on the stock right now. While the former overhang is a major key to positively resolving the latter uncertainty, only time will tell.
Based on the assumptions of 25%+ annualized revenue growth through 2030, 40% adjusted operating margins in 2030, and $2 billion in 2030 stock-based compensation, expect the company to be worth at least 3x what it is today and generate ~12%-13% annualized returns over that period, making it a buy today and a strong buy at $20 or less.
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