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2021-05-21

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Apple: Victim Of Its Own Success

Summary Investors will likely fret over revenue growth rates later this year. Regular iPhone launch

Apple: Victim Of Its Own Success

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":130657606,"tweetId":"130657606","gmtCreate":1621547551505,"gmtModify":1634188314222,"author":{"id":3579911416524208,"idStr":"3579911416524208","authorId":3579911416524208,"authorIdStr":"3579911416524208","name":"OneArmBoi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcd7523312cd34fe1ab66063bdbdaf30","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>To the moon</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>To the moon</p></body></html>","text":"To the moon","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130657606","repostId":1180231636,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180231636","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621523836,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180231636?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Victim Of Its Own Success","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180231636","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nInvestors will likely fret over revenue growth rates later this year.\nRegular iPhone launch","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Investors will likely fret over revenue growth rates later this year.</li>\n <li>Regular iPhone launch timing could pull forward meaningful sales.</li>\n <li>As stock stays flat, buyback can become more powerful.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9ae225cce8f1aea80db542b535f742\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Technology giant Apple (AAPL) reported&nbsp;a massive earnings blowout&nbsp;a few weeks ago, and the numbers were truly staggering. A company of this size reporting revenue growth of more than 53% over the prior year period was truly remarkable. Yes, the company has benefited from soft earlier year comparisons and the work from home tailwinds, but you can't argue that its products are not in high demand. As great as Apple's numbers have been lately, it might prove to be a risk later this year.</p>\n<p>I am saying today that Apple could be a victim of its own success because the stock market is always a what have you done for me lately crowd. As the chart below shows, the high revenue growth rates we'll see are expected to come crashing down once we hit the December quarter (fiscal Q1 2022). That 53% growth figure for the March 2021 quarter sets up an insanely high bar that analysts don't think can be repeated next year. Blue bars are actual results, while green ones are current street average estimates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b61b66cfb83a8e7f307580dd6277be6\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"397\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha estimates page)</span></p>\n<p>I'm sure the Apple bear crowd will be out in full force if Apple guides to or reports a revenue decline for fiscal Q2 2022. Of course, a small top line decline then would still be a tremendous quarter when looking at the longer term picture. Even though analysts are currently looking for a 2.2% revenue decline in that March 2022 quarter, the average revenue estimate for that period has risen by nearly 16% over the past six months, for example. Over the past year, the average is up by almost $20 billion.</p>\n<p>Apple has been helped by the coronavirus in the short term, not only from the work from home crowd buying more tablets and computers, but by the massive stimulus provided by global governments. While those tailwinds will calm down in the coming quarters, economies should be doing better so consumer spending should remain fairly decent. Even though central banks may start to tighten their monetary policy a little, they are certainly not going to do anything severe that will crash things again.</p>\n<p>The other issue for Apple regarding the coronavirus was the timing of major launches. With factories shut down for a time in 2020, the iPhone release schedule for last year changed in a meaningful way. Instead of seeing one or more phones available to consumers in September, two iPhone 12 models went on sale in late October, with the other two in mid-November. If Apple returns to a normal schedule this year, it will pull billions of revenue forward into the September 2021 (fiscal Q4) quarter. That could further make the early 2022 comparisons tougher to match, giving more fuel to the bears.</p>\n<p>When Apple has a big sales year, like it is having with the iPhone currently, investors worry that the next cycle won't be as strong in terms of unit sales. I'm not as concerned this time around with that, partially because consumers are going to want and need to upgrade to 5G smartphones, and that should fuel a multi-year upgrade period. The other thing that could help is if Apple follows what it did with the iPad Pro launch from earlier this year. Take a look at the following table which shows the initial pricing of the larger screen Pro tablet version over the years. There are also the Cellular models that will cost a little bit more, but for this argument, I'm only showing the base Wi-Fi model.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77225da409fee0ad2e69fb1c32c2505\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"107\"><span>(Source: iPad Pro wikipedia page)</span></p>\n<p>Because of both the advancements in technology as well as larger storage, Apple has raised prices significantly over the years. The most expensive version of this tablet has doubled in price since 2015, and the three lowest storage versions are up $100 each over their prior year counterpart. Thus, if you are arguing that iPad unit sales may be down 5-10% a year from now, it may not be a big deal if Apple is seeing average selling prices that are up 15-20% over that time. I could see a similar thing happening with the iPhone this year, depending on how many older generations stick around and whether or not Apple launches a 1 TB storage option for the smartphone.</p>\n<p>Even if Apple's results aren't as tremendous as some hope they might be moving forward, this company is still doing incredibly well. Free cash flow could be well over $80 billion this year, allowing for a dividend and huge buyback. Don't forget that as shares stay around this $125 level, the repurchasing of shares becomes more significant each quarter as the share count comes down. $20 billion in buybacks every three months at a $2.1 trillion market cap does more than at a $2.2 trillion valuation, for example, and earnings per share will continue to benefit.</p>\n<p>Wednesday was another important day for Apple. With the market dropping at the open, Apple fell below its 200-day moving average (green line below). However, the stock was able to regain this key technical level and close above it. As the chart below shows, shares are currently stuck between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, and both lines are mostly flat at this point. Should the stock be able to get back above the shorter term trend line, it could provide a level of support moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8ca788fa86bda735f874b66546312a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p>\n<p>In the end, Apple may become a victim of its own success rather soon. Two massive blowout quarters have not only sent analyst estimates through the roof, but set high bars for future quarters. While the company's sales will remain in an uptrend over the long term, I'm sure the bears will surface if the top line is forecast to decline, especially if a normal iPhone launch pulls sales forward. For now, Apple shares are looking for direction, with investors hoping the stock can regain the 50-day moving average and start a new breakout.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Victim Of Its Own Success</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Victim Of Its Own Success\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-20 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430161-apple-victim-of-its-own-success><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nInvestors will likely fret over revenue growth rates later this year.\nRegular iPhone launch timing could pull forward meaningful sales.\nAs stock stays flat, buyback can become more powerful.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430161-apple-victim-of-its-own-success\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430161-apple-victim-of-its-own-success","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1180231636","content_text":"Summary\n\nInvestors will likely fret over revenue growth rates later this year.\nRegular iPhone launch timing could pull forward meaningful sales.\nAs stock stays flat, buyback can become more powerful.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTechnology giant Apple (AAPL) reported a massive earnings blowout a few weeks ago, and the numbers were truly staggering. A company of this size reporting revenue growth of more than 53% over the prior year period was truly remarkable. Yes, the company has benefited from soft earlier year comparisons and the work from home tailwinds, but you can't argue that its products are not in high demand. As great as Apple's numbers have been lately, it might prove to be a risk later this year.\nI am saying today that Apple could be a victim of its own success because the stock market is always a what have you done for me lately crowd. As the chart below shows, the high revenue growth rates we'll see are expected to come crashing down once we hit the December quarter (fiscal Q1 2022). That 53% growth figure for the March 2021 quarter sets up an insanely high bar that analysts don't think can be repeated next year. Blue bars are actual results, while green ones are current street average estimates.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha estimates page)\nI'm sure the Apple bear crowd will be out in full force if Apple guides to or reports a revenue decline for fiscal Q2 2022. Of course, a small top line decline then would still be a tremendous quarter when looking at the longer term picture. Even though analysts are currently looking for a 2.2% revenue decline in that March 2022 quarter, the average revenue estimate for that period has risen by nearly 16% over the past six months, for example. Over the past year, the average is up by almost $20 billion.\nApple has been helped by the coronavirus in the short term, not only from the work from home crowd buying more tablets and computers, but by the massive stimulus provided by global governments. While those tailwinds will calm down in the coming quarters, economies should be doing better so consumer spending should remain fairly decent. Even though central banks may start to tighten their monetary policy a little, they are certainly not going to do anything severe that will crash things again.\nThe other issue for Apple regarding the coronavirus was the timing of major launches. With factories shut down for a time in 2020, the iPhone release schedule for last year changed in a meaningful way. Instead of seeing one or more phones available to consumers in September, two iPhone 12 models went on sale in late October, with the other two in mid-November. If Apple returns to a normal schedule this year, it will pull billions of revenue forward into the September 2021 (fiscal Q4) quarter. That could further make the early 2022 comparisons tougher to match, giving more fuel to the bears.\nWhen Apple has a big sales year, like it is having with the iPhone currently, investors worry that the next cycle won't be as strong in terms of unit sales. I'm not as concerned this time around with that, partially because consumers are going to want and need to upgrade to 5G smartphones, and that should fuel a multi-year upgrade period. The other thing that could help is if Apple follows what it did with the iPad Pro launch from earlier this year. Take a look at the following table which shows the initial pricing of the larger screen Pro tablet version over the years. There are also the Cellular models that will cost a little bit more, but for this argument, I'm only showing the base Wi-Fi model.\n(Source: iPad Pro wikipedia page)\nBecause of both the advancements in technology as well as larger storage, Apple has raised prices significantly over the years. The most expensive version of this tablet has doubled in price since 2015, and the three lowest storage versions are up $100 each over their prior year counterpart. Thus, if you are arguing that iPad unit sales may be down 5-10% a year from now, it may not be a big deal if Apple is seeing average selling prices that are up 15-20% over that time. I could see a similar thing happening with the iPhone this year, depending on how many older generations stick around and whether or not Apple launches a 1 TB storage option for the smartphone.\nEven if Apple's results aren't as tremendous as some hope they might be moving forward, this company is still doing incredibly well. Free cash flow could be well over $80 billion this year, allowing for a dividend and huge buyback. Don't forget that as shares stay around this $125 level, the repurchasing of shares becomes more significant each quarter as the share count comes down. $20 billion in buybacks every three months at a $2.1 trillion market cap does more than at a $2.2 trillion valuation, for example, and earnings per share will continue to benefit.\nWednesday was another important day for Apple. With the market dropping at the open, Apple fell below its 200-day moving average (green line below). However, the stock was able to regain this key technical level and close above it. As the chart below shows, shares are currently stuck between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, and both lines are mostly flat at this point. Should the stock be able to get back above the shorter term trend line, it could provide a level of support moving forward.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, Apple may become a victim of its own success rather soon. Two massive blowout quarters have not only sent analyst estimates through the roof, but set high bars for future quarters. While the company's sales will remain in an uptrend over the long term, I'm sure the bears will surface if the top line is forecast to decline, especially if a normal iPhone launch pulls sales forward. For now, Apple shares are looking for direction, with investors hoping the stock can regain the 50-day moving average and start a new breakout.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Apple: Victim Of Its Own Success

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