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2021-06-23

Wow, $20 drop, really

Apple Stock: Why Waiting To Buy Is A Bad Move

One Wall Street analyst believes that Apple shares should be bought only after a $20 drop. The Apple

Apple Stock: Why Waiting To Buy Is A Bad Move

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The Apple","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>One Wall Street analyst believes that Apple shares should be bought only after a $20 drop. The Apple Maven explains why this could be a bad approach.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>On Monday, June 21, one Wall Street analyst suggested that waiting until later to buy Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;made most sense to him. Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, whodowngradedAAPL to neutral in early 2018 due to what he believed to be a saturated iPhone market, thinks that $110 per share is a better entry price.</p>\n<p>Today, the Apple Maven explains why the analyst might be wrong in his “wait and see” approach to owning Apple – at least when it comes to a long-term investment, rather than a short-term trade strategy.</p>\n<p><b>The cautious perspective</b></p>\n<p>Bernstein is not quite an Apple bear. In fact, the research shop defends that the stock looks more appealing now, valued at a current P/E of around 25 times, than earlier in 2021, when the multiple reached a recent peak of 33 times.</p>\n<p>Instead, the analyst thinks that the setup for the next couple of months is at best neutral for the Cupertino company, and that the stock would need to drop a good $20 per share to make the investment opportunity more palatable. The iPhone is at the center of the analyst’s skepticism:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We still believe risk-reward is largely balanced, given potential downward revisions and potential for a weak iPhone 13 cycle. We remind investors that the only year that the iPhone seasonal trade failed between June and September was following the strong 6 cycle, which objectively bears strong similarities with the current iPhone 12 cycle.”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The counterargument</b></p>\n<p>While I respect the point of view above, and it makes logical sense at first glance, I do not think that it is a strong enough argument to take a pass on Apple today.</p>\n<p>On the first part, I believe that speculations on the iPhone 13 are just that: speculations. It is hard to tell today, three months ahead of the launch, how well received the next smartphone model will be. If anything, thesoftware upgrades introduced during WWDCsuggest that the new devices will offer more value to users each year.</p>\n<p>Also, if the super cycle is to be believed, I see no reason to doubt that Apple’s device will find increased demand as 5G networks expand around the world. This is why shipments of 5G-ready devices are expected to increase progressively, rather than spike once and die out (see graph below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f74bfdb0cf4552a5fabd06bc37bb9795\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: Worldwide smartphone forecast, 2020Q4. IDC</span></p>\n<p>On the second part, the analyst is probably referring to the graph below. Historically, Apple stock has performed best during the summer months, just ahead of the new iPhone release. Later in the year, investors then proceed to “sell the news”, as the holiday season approaches.</p>\n<p>Mr. Sacconaghi is right that Apple stock did not do well at all in the third quarter of 2015, about nine months following the launch of Apple’smost-successful-everiPhone 6. But at the same time, he fails to recognize that shares skyrocketed in Q3 2018, after the iPhone X’s so-called “upgrade super cycle” (does the term ring a bell?) that the analyst himself bet against when he downgraded Apple to neutral.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec062b0576d8fcc1648c4ff070f40e0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Apple Maven’s takeaways</p>\n<p>I believe that Apple stock still heads higher from here for the same reasonsthat I presented in early June, when shares were worth $123: stable yields, unsustainable drawdown and seasonal tailwinds (not to mention the more important business fundamental factors).</p>\n<p>I think that long-term investors are probably better off owning shares at current valuations that seem reasonable, rather than waiting for a 15% drop that may never materialize. This isin line with my beliefthat Apple stock is best owned for the long-term, not traded for short-term profits.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>One Wall Street analyst believes that investors should wait to invest in Apple stock once it drops to $110 per share. What best summarizes your thoughts on this approach?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af2fb4f61c41fe21e4254a1eb2493ad\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Explore more data and graphs</b></p>\n<p>I have been impressed with the breadth and depth of information on markets, stocks and ETFsprovided by Stock Rover. Stock Rover helps to set up detailed filters, track custom portfolios and measure their performance relative to a number of benchmarks.</p>\n<p>To learn more,check out stockrover.comand get started for as low as $7.99 a month. The premium plus plan that I have will give you access to all the information that goes into my analysis and much more.</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Why Waiting To Buy Is A Bad Move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Why Waiting To Buy Is A Bad Move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-why-waiting-to-buy-is-a-bad-move><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One Wall Street analyst believes that Apple shares should be bought only after a $20 drop. The Apple Maven explains why this could be a bad approach.\n\nOn Monday, June 21, one Wall Street analyst ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-why-waiting-to-buy-is-a-bad-move\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-why-waiting-to-buy-is-a-bad-move","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154985249","content_text":"One Wall Street analyst believes that Apple shares should be bought only after a $20 drop. The Apple Maven explains why this could be a bad approach.\n\nOn Monday, June 21, one Wall Street analyst suggested that waiting until later to buy Apple stock (AAPL) -Get Report made most sense to him. Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, whodowngradedAAPL to neutral in early 2018 due to what he believed to be a saturated iPhone market, thinks that $110 per share is a better entry price.\nToday, the Apple Maven explains why the analyst might be wrong in his “wait and see” approach to owning Apple – at least when it comes to a long-term investment, rather than a short-term trade strategy.\nThe cautious perspective\nBernstein is not quite an Apple bear. In fact, the research shop defends that the stock looks more appealing now, valued at a current P/E of around 25 times, than earlier in 2021, when the multiple reached a recent peak of 33 times.\nInstead, the analyst thinks that the setup for the next couple of months is at best neutral for the Cupertino company, and that the stock would need to drop a good $20 per share to make the investment opportunity more palatable. The iPhone is at the center of the analyst’s skepticism:\n\n “We still believe risk-reward is largely balanced, given potential downward revisions and potential for a weak iPhone 13 cycle. We remind investors that the only year that the iPhone seasonal trade failed between June and September was following the strong 6 cycle, which objectively bears strong similarities with the current iPhone 12 cycle.”\n\nThe counterargument\nWhile I respect the point of view above, and it makes logical sense at first glance, I do not think that it is a strong enough argument to take a pass on Apple today.\nOn the first part, I believe that speculations on the iPhone 13 are just that: speculations. It is hard to tell today, three months ahead of the launch, how well received the next smartphone model will be. If anything, thesoftware upgrades introduced during WWDCsuggest that the new devices will offer more value to users each year.\nAlso, if the super cycle is to be believed, I see no reason to doubt that Apple’s device will find increased demand as 5G networks expand around the world. This is why shipments of 5G-ready devices are expected to increase progressively, rather than spike once and die out (see graph below).\nFigure 2: Worldwide smartphone forecast, 2020Q4. IDC\nOn the second part, the analyst is probably referring to the graph below. Historically, Apple stock has performed best during the summer months, just ahead of the new iPhone release. Later in the year, investors then proceed to “sell the news”, as the holiday season approaches.\nMr. Sacconaghi is right that Apple stock did not do well at all in the third quarter of 2015, about nine months following the launch of Apple’smost-successful-everiPhone 6. But at the same time, he fails to recognize that shares skyrocketed in Q3 2018, after the iPhone X’s so-called “upgrade super cycle” (does the term ring a bell?) that the analyst himself bet against when he downgraded Apple to neutral.\nThe Apple Maven’s takeaways\nI believe that Apple stock still heads higher from here for the same reasonsthat I presented in early June, when shares were worth $123: stable yields, unsustainable drawdown and seasonal tailwinds (not to mention the more important business fundamental factors).\nI think that long-term investors are probably better off owning shares at current valuations that seem reasonable, rather than waiting for a 15% drop that may never materialize. This isin line with my beliefthat Apple stock is best owned for the long-term, not traded for short-term profits.\nTwitter speaks\nOne Wall Street analyst believes that investors should wait to invest in Apple stock once it drops to $110 per share. What best summarizes your thoughts on this approach?\n\nExplore more data and graphs\nI have been impressed with the breadth and depth of information on markets, stocks and ETFsprovided by Stock Rover. Stock Rover helps to set up detailed filters, track custom portfolios and measure their performance relative to a number of benchmarks.\nTo learn more,check out stockrover.comand get started for as low as $7.99 a month. The premium plus plan that I have will give you access to all the information that goes into my analysis and much more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Apple Stock: Why Waiting To Buy Is A Bad Move

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