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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-30
  wow like pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  888 评论
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-23
  even if go up, govt will bring it down
  Why Nio Shares Dropped Again Today
  Chinese electric vehicle maker Nioheld its annual Nio Day event last weekend where it unveiled its latest new electric sedan. Though customers appear to be eager to purchase one, Nio stock's continued decline has resulted in a 22% drop in the stock's value over the past month. Today, shares dropped 1.03% and continued to slide 1.34% in extended hours.Nio hasn't put out any company-specific news today, but it introduced its new ET5 electric sedan last weekend, which it hopes will compete with Te
  Why Nio Shares Dropped Again Today
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-22
  like please
  Is Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?
  Summary Rivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call. The company reported a
  Is Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-21
  $SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$the stock that keep sinking
  677 评论
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-16
  yes and remind me not buy FOMO stock anymore
  Palantir: A Value Trap
  Summary Palantir is an overvalued government contractor. The business has no intrinsic scale value.
  Palantir: A Value Trap
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-14
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$how to escape ?
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-13
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$again another tech stock trend go up,this one go down
  1,266 2
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-06
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$tonight will break <18
  601 评论
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-02
  Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has secured an additional $43M contract from the Space Systems Command's (SSC) Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise (ECX).Should i buy more tonight ?
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- laurent_riolaurent_rio
  ·2021-12-02
  $SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$climb a bit and then sink again.
  790 评论
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like pls","listText":"wow like pls","text":"wow like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692950365","repostId":"1158401825","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691493101,"gmtCreate":1640225830061,"gmtModify":1640225884767,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"even if go up, govt will bring it down","listText":"even if go up, govt will bring it down","text":"even if go up, govt will bring it down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691493101","repostId":"1173043963","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173043963","pubTimestamp":1640225262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173043963?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Nio Shares Dropped Again Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173043963","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Chinese electric vehicle  maker Nioheld its annual Nio Day event last weekend where it unveiled its latest new electric sedan. Though customers appear to be eager to purchase one, Nio stock's continued decline has resulted in a 22% drop in the stock's value over the past month. Today, shares dropped 1.03% and continued to slide 1.34% in extended hours.Nio hasn't put out any company-specific news today, but it introduced its new ET5 electric sedan last weekend, which it hopes will compete with Te","content":"<p>What happened</p>\n<p>Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker&nbsp;<b>Nio</b>(NYSE:NIO)held its annual Nio Day event last weekend where it unveiled its latest new electric sedan. Though customers appear to be eager to purchase one, Nio stock's continued decline has resulted in a 22% drop in the stock's value over the past month. Today, shares dropped 1.03% and&nbsp;continued&nbsp;to&nbsp;slide&nbsp;1.34%&nbsp;in&nbsp;extended&nbsp;hours. </p>\n<p>So what</p>\n<p>Nio hasn't put out any company-specific news today, but it introduced its new ET5 electric sedan last weekend, which it hopes will compete with&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>'s(NASDAQ:TSLA)Model 3. WithTesla CEO Elon Musk making news again today, it may be that investors are shunning Nio shares for Tesla stock. But Nio has more than just the ET5 in its plans to expand from here.</p>\n<p>Now what</p>\n<p>Nio has increased its&nbsp;electric car deliveries&nbsp;by 120.4% through November 2021 versus the comparable year-ago period. But the best may still be yet to come. In addition to its new luxury ET7 sedan that will begin shipping in March 2022, the new ET5 is also expected to start deliveries in September 2022.</p>\n<p>The ET5 will be available with Nio's largest battery that will provide a range of up to about 620 miles on a single charge. And Nio CEO William Li told local media that the ET5, which was officially unveiled Saturday, has already become the most pre-ordered Nio model ever. That is according to CnEVPost, an industry news service focused on the Chinese EV sector.</p>\n<p>Nio also plans to move beyond China in 2022. It already sells its vehicles in Norway and expects to be doing business in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark in 2022. The company says it will have a presence in over 25 countries by 2025. While investors have been driving shares lower recently, the company hopes its future growth and expansion efforts will eventually reverse that trend.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Nio Shares Dropped Again Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Nio Shares Dropped Again Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-23 10:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/why-nio-shares-dropped-again-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened\nChinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio(NYSE:NIO)held its annual Nio Day event last weekend where it unveiled its latest new electric sedan. Though customers appear to be eager to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/why-nio-shares-dropped-again-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/why-nio-shares-dropped-again-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173043963","content_text":"What happened\nChinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio(NYSE:NIO)held its annual Nio Day event last weekend where it unveiled its latest new electric sedan. Though customers appear to be eager to purchase one, Nio stock's continued decline has resulted in a 22% drop in the stock's value over the past month. Today, shares dropped 1.03% and continued to slide 1.34% in extended hours. \nSo what\nNio hasn't put out any company-specific news today, but it introduced its new ET5 electric sedan last weekend, which it hopes will compete with Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)Model 3. WithTesla CEO Elon Musk making news again today, it may be that investors are shunning Nio shares for Tesla stock. But Nio has more than just the ET5 in its plans to expand from here.\nNow what\nNio has increased its electric car deliveries by 120.4% through November 2021 versus the comparable year-ago period. But the best may still be yet to come. In addition to its new luxury ET7 sedan that will begin shipping in March 2022, the new ET5 is also expected to start deliveries in September 2022.\nThe ET5 will be available with Nio's largest battery that will provide a range of up to about 620 miles on a single charge. And Nio CEO William Li told local media that the ET5, which was officially unveiled Saturday, has already become the most pre-ordered Nio model ever. That is according to CnEVPost, an industry news service focused on the Chinese EV sector.\nNio also plans to move beyond China in 2022. It already sells its vehicles in Norway and expects to be doing business in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark in 2022. The company says it will have a presence in over 25 countries by 2025. While investors have been driving shares lower recently, the company hopes its future growth and expansion efforts will eventually reverse that trend.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691897150,"gmtCreate":1640160726994,"gmtModify":1640160727187,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like please","listText":"like please","text":"like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691897150","repostId":"1123940793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123940793","pubTimestamp":1640153635,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123940793?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123940793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call.\nThe company reported a ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Rivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call.</li>\n <li>The company reported a slight production target miss in its FQ3 earnings call. However, we don't think investors should be overly worried.</li>\n <li>We discuss why we think RIVN stock is a Buy now.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69bdd77748b1c27c695aff2846bb30c6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) recently released its first earnings reports for FQ3'21 as a public company. Notably, the company missed its 1,200 vehicle production target by \"a few hundred vehicles.\" However, we weren't surprised, given the current supply chain bottlenecks and the challenges in ramping production. Moreover, we don't think investors should be unduly concerned about its short-term production goal. Management was clear as it emphasized that its long-term production targets remain unaffected.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, we believe that ramping production successfully will continue to be a key hurdle facing CEO RJ Scaringe &amp; Co. Investors sent the stock tumbling after its earnings report, which we believe the market took the opportunity to pare down risk. After all, RIVN stock had traded at an incredible market cap of $112.8B&nbsp;when we wrote our previous article. Following the recent sell-off, Rivian's market cap has dropped to $88B. Therefore, we believe it's an appropriate time to revisit our thesis on RIVN stock post-FQ3 earnings.</p>\n<p>We also discuss why we think the stock seems fairly valued now.</p>\n<p><b>Rivian Market Cap Trend</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a528b02874c529215e0428c40adc5ad1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RIVN market cap analysis (as of 17 December'21).</span></p>\n<p>Readers can quickly glean that Rivian's market cap has dropped dramatically back to where it started life as a public company. It last registered a market cap of $88B, while it began trading with a market cap of $83.6B in early November.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Rivian's market cap still exceeded Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) market cap even as it just started making deliveries in September. Some investors find it incredulous that a company that hasn't even ramped production could be worth more than both the US auto leaders.</p>\n<p><b>Why We Think Rivian Investors Remain Optimistic Post-FQ3</b></p>\n<p>Rivian's report card wasn't a disaster, even if the company missed its production guidance for 2021. CEO RJ Scaringe offered assurances as he emphasized (edited):</p>\n<blockquote>\n For 2021, \n <i>we expect to produce a few hundred vehicles short of our initial 1,200 vehicle production target</i>. We do not believe any of our supply chain challenges represent long-term systemic issues. We remain well-positioned to capture and drive the accelerated large-scale adoption of sustainable transportation. However, a small number of suppliers or small number of components may be ramping a little slower, creating constraints or bottlenecks. Those challenges have been really a focal point for us over the last two and a half, three months. \n <i>But, these issues are short-term in nature and they are solvable problems</i>. So, we don't see any long-term systemic challenges associated with ramping the supply chain. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec61d947f0a1da5f4d5883a8941a7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Rivian planned production capacity and delivery consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, Barron's</span></p>\n<p>Rivian telegraphed that it would be commencing its new Georgia production facility in mid'22 and ready to begin production from 2024. Georgia's planned annual run rate is estimated at 400K. Therefore, it would afford Rivian a collective annual production capacity of 600K if we include its Illinois facility. Nevertheless, the company did not specify how long it would take to ramp production to its planned capacity. However, consensus estimates point to a relatively positive ramp through FY25. As a result, Rivian is estimated to deliver about 40K of vehicles in FY22. However, it would reach the 360K milestone by FY25, registering an estimated delivery CAGR of 108%. Its 360K estimate includes the 100K EDV orders from its exclusive last-mile delivery partner and cornerstone investor Amazon (AMZN).</p>\n<p>There's little doubt that the delivery cadence estimates look very aggressive. But, if done well, it's also not impossible. Keen investors should recall that Tesla (TSLA) took just two years to ramp Giga Shanghai from zero to its current 600K annual run rate. It has even recently made new investments to enhance its production capacity further. Rivian also seems highly confident that they can ramp successfully, as CEO RJ Scaringe emphasized (edited):</p>\n<blockquote>\n We've architected the product development to be capable of running more than one program and launching more than one program at once, but also to have those fast feedback loops between the different programs. So with that, the commercial van has actually learned a lot from the R1 platform and the R1 platform launch. What you see in terms of the facility in Georgia, is key for us from an expansion point of view. We're quite confident in the path ahead. All three of our vehicles have been certified for sale and they're being produced on two different production lines. \n <i>The organization was architected to facilitate running and operating multiple programs at the same time</i>. And so as we now look at what the ramp will look like for both R1T and R1S into next year, it really positions us to rapidly grow through the course of 2022. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\n<p>While it's still early, Rivian investors are undoubtedly confident that the company can deliver on its production cadence to meet its delivery milestones. The company is not facing a demand issue compared to short-term supply constraints. They updated that R1 orders have climbed to 71K from 55K in the previous update. Nevertheless, these are cancelable orders, as their delivery timeline has been stretched to 2023 if a new order is placed now. Given that auto leaders General Motors, Ford, and Tesla will also be expected to compete with their pickup trucks soon, Rivian must maintain its production cadence. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor their production milestones very carefully moving ahead.</p>\n<p><b>Investors Must Carefully Monitor Amazon's EDV Range</b></p>\n<p>The partnership with Amazon is critical to jumpstarting Rivian's ambitions into the commercial fleet segment. Not only does it offer the opportunity of massive fleet sales, but it also sells its fleet management subscriptions as part of its commercial sales. Consequently, it introduces a recurring software revenue stream component on top of its hardware revenue. It also applies to the Amazon fleet, as Rivian accentuated: \"That software subscription goes live basically now on the commercial side.\"</p>\n<p>Rivian is expected to deliver 10K EDV by 2022 following \"months of testing&nbsp;in 15 cities.\" Investors should remember that Amazon retains the right to change its number of orders. Therefore it's critical that Rivian can meet Amazon's expectations. We believe it has also driven Rivian to ramp production quickly. Given how quickly they secured their second production facility, we believe that the company seems confident in meeting its production targets, and consequently, Amazon's orders.</p>\n<p>Rivian emphasized that its EDV is capable of 201 miles range, and it is on track to deliver its vehicles to Amazon. However, a previous report by The Information highlighted some challenges in Amazon's testing, on top of its battery draining problem. The Information reported (edited):</p>\n<blockquote>\n Rivian said the Amazon vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But one driver involved in testing the vans said the range could be much less, depending on the weather. The driver who spoke to The Information said the battery drained about 40% faster than normal if the van’s heating or cooling was on. As a result, drivers have been testing the vans on what they dubbed “nursery routes,” where vans didn’t venture too far away from the contractors’ headquarters. (The Information)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, Ross Rachey, noted that once the vans are in production, \"they would have a range of 150 miles, which is double the range of the majority of Amazon's routes.\" Notably, the company also quickly emphasized that these test vans are not fully developed yet.</p>\n<p>We believe a successful launch program with Amazon could open up many potential opportunities outside of the Last Mile segment. Investors should note that Amazon's exclusive partnership with Rivian is limited to Last Mile. But, the commercial space is much larger than the Last Mile segment. Rivian also raved about its market opportunities in the larger commercial space, as Scaringe added (edited):</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Amazon represents such a large pool of demand for us.</i>So it's really critical that we do not starve them of vehicles. Nevertheless, the RCV platform was architected and designed \n <i>fully contemplating vehicles beyond Last Mile, such as in the cargo space</i>, or in the workspace. So there's a whole host of opportunities that exists both in large volumes, but also across a very long spread-out tail of commercial applications. Thus, we also have an eye on launching non-EDV versions on the RCV platform to capitalize on these opportunities. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>So, is RIVN Stock a Buy/Hold/Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264dc3dc91fc844d920e73a7f69cf920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Rivian revenue and adjusted EBIT margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1069e7fc16920da396615f6df6ff5951\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RIVN and TSLA stock EV/Fwd Revenue valuation comps. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Consensus estimates point to a largely successful ramp, as we explained earlier. As a result, Rivian's revenue is estimated to reach $27.84B by FY25. However, the company is not expected to be profitable based on adjusted EBIT margins by then. Therefore, investors are encouraged to monitor its production ramp and profitability dynamics moving forward carefully.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, its valuations have dropped significantly since its earlier momentum spike. The stock has declined more than 25% since our Neutral call, as we encouraged investors to wait for the dip.</p>\n<p>If we consider Rivian's valuations against Tesla moving forward, it may seem more reasonable than the EV leader. However, investors should note that Tesla is already a solidly profitable EV maker. It also has proven its production ramp capabilities exceptionally well. Moreover, its brand value has also increased tremendously globally. Therefore, comparing their revenue multiples directly without adjusting for Tesla's advantages would not make sense.</p>\n<p>Based on Rivian stock's EV/FY25 revenue multiple of 3.4x, it's trading at 50% of Tesla's FY25 revenue multiple. Therefore, we think RIVN stock looks fairly valued now. Nevertheless, we believe that RIVN stock remains a highly speculative play. However, the company seems to be getting well on track to meet its mid-term production guidance. Therefore, the current weakness could offer speculative investors a potential opportunity to add exposure at a more reasonable valuation.</p>\n<p>Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on RIVN stock to Buy.</i>However, we would like to caution that RIVN stock may be suitable for speculative investors only. Moreover, the stock could continue to exhibit tremendous volatility. Therefore, investors are encouraged to add in phases.</p>\n<p>This article was written by&nbsp;JR Research.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-22 14:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476199-rivian-stock-buy-sell-hold><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nRivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call.\nThe company reported a slight production target miss in its FQ3 earnings call. However, we don't think investors should be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476199-rivian-stock-buy-sell-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476199-rivian-stock-buy-sell-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123940793","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call.\nThe company reported a slight production target miss in its FQ3 earnings call. However, we don't think investors should be overly worried.\nWe discuss why we think RIVN stock is a Buy now.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images News\nInvestment Thesis\nRivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) recently released its first earnings reports for FQ3'21 as a public company. Notably, the company missed its 1,200 vehicle production target by \"a few hundred vehicles.\" However, we weren't surprised, given the current supply chain bottlenecks and the challenges in ramping production. Moreover, we don't think investors should be unduly concerned about its short-term production goal. Management was clear as it emphasized that its long-term production targets remain unaffected.\nNevertheless, we believe that ramping production successfully will continue to be a key hurdle facing CEO RJ Scaringe & Co. Investors sent the stock tumbling after its earnings report, which we believe the market took the opportunity to pare down risk. After all, RIVN stock had traded at an incredible market cap of $112.8B when we wrote our previous article. Following the recent sell-off, Rivian's market cap has dropped to $88B. Therefore, we believe it's an appropriate time to revisit our thesis on RIVN stock post-FQ3 earnings.\nWe also discuss why we think the stock seems fairly valued now.\nRivian Market Cap Trend\nRIVN market cap analysis (as of 17 December'21).\nReaders can quickly glean that Rivian's market cap has dropped dramatically back to where it started life as a public company. It last registered a market cap of $88B, while it began trading with a market cap of $83.6B in early November.\nNevertheless, Rivian's market cap still exceeded Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) market cap even as it just started making deliveries in September. Some investors find it incredulous that a company that hasn't even ramped production could be worth more than both the US auto leaders.\nWhy We Think Rivian Investors Remain Optimistic Post-FQ3\nRivian's report card wasn't a disaster, even if the company missed its production guidance for 2021. CEO RJ Scaringe offered assurances as he emphasized (edited):\n\n For 2021, \n we expect to produce a few hundred vehicles short of our initial 1,200 vehicle production target. We do not believe any of our supply chain challenges represent long-term systemic issues. We remain well-positioned to capture and drive the accelerated large-scale adoption of sustainable transportation. However, a small number of suppliers or small number of components may be ramping a little slower, creating constraints or bottlenecks. Those challenges have been really a focal point for us over the last two and a half, three months. \n But, these issues are short-term in nature and they are solvable problems. So, we don't see any long-term systemic challenges associated with ramping the supply chain. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nRivian planned production capacity and delivery consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Barron's\nRivian telegraphed that it would be commencing its new Georgia production facility in mid'22 and ready to begin production from 2024. Georgia's planned annual run rate is estimated at 400K. Therefore, it would afford Rivian a collective annual production capacity of 600K if we include its Illinois facility. Nevertheless, the company did not specify how long it would take to ramp production to its planned capacity. However, consensus estimates point to a relatively positive ramp through FY25. As a result, Rivian is estimated to deliver about 40K of vehicles in FY22. However, it would reach the 360K milestone by FY25, registering an estimated delivery CAGR of 108%. Its 360K estimate includes the 100K EDV orders from its exclusive last-mile delivery partner and cornerstone investor Amazon (AMZN).\nThere's little doubt that the delivery cadence estimates look very aggressive. But, if done well, it's also not impossible. Keen investors should recall that Tesla (TSLA) took just two years to ramp Giga Shanghai from zero to its current 600K annual run rate. It has even recently made new investments to enhance its production capacity further. Rivian also seems highly confident that they can ramp successfully, as CEO RJ Scaringe emphasized (edited):\n\n We've architected the product development to be capable of running more than one program and launching more than one program at once, but also to have those fast feedback loops between the different programs. So with that, the commercial van has actually learned a lot from the R1 platform and the R1 platform launch. What you see in terms of the facility in Georgia, is key for us from an expansion point of view. We're quite confident in the path ahead. All three of our vehicles have been certified for sale and they're being produced on two different production lines. \n The organization was architected to facilitate running and operating multiple programs at the same time. And so as we now look at what the ramp will look like for both R1T and R1S into next year, it really positions us to rapidly grow through the course of 2022. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWhile it's still early, Rivian investors are undoubtedly confident that the company can deliver on its production cadence to meet its delivery milestones. The company is not facing a demand issue compared to short-term supply constraints. They updated that R1 orders have climbed to 71K from 55K in the previous update. Nevertheless, these are cancelable orders, as their delivery timeline has been stretched to 2023 if a new order is placed now. Given that auto leaders General Motors, Ford, and Tesla will also be expected to compete with their pickup trucks soon, Rivian must maintain its production cadence. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor their production milestones very carefully moving ahead.\nInvestors Must Carefully Monitor Amazon's EDV Range\nThe partnership with Amazon is critical to jumpstarting Rivian's ambitions into the commercial fleet segment. Not only does it offer the opportunity of massive fleet sales, but it also sells its fleet management subscriptions as part of its commercial sales. Consequently, it introduces a recurring software revenue stream component on top of its hardware revenue. It also applies to the Amazon fleet, as Rivian accentuated: \"That software subscription goes live basically now on the commercial side.\"\nRivian is expected to deliver 10K EDV by 2022 following \"months of testing in 15 cities.\" Investors should remember that Amazon retains the right to change its number of orders. Therefore it's critical that Rivian can meet Amazon's expectations. We believe it has also driven Rivian to ramp production quickly. Given how quickly they secured their second production facility, we believe that the company seems confident in meeting its production targets, and consequently, Amazon's orders.\nRivian emphasized that its EDV is capable of 201 miles range, and it is on track to deliver its vehicles to Amazon. However, a previous report by The Information highlighted some challenges in Amazon's testing, on top of its battery draining problem. The Information reported (edited):\n\n Rivian said the Amazon vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But one driver involved in testing the vans said the range could be much less, depending on the weather. The driver who spoke to The Information said the battery drained about 40% faster than normal if the van’s heating or cooling was on. As a result, drivers have been testing the vans on what they dubbed “nursery routes,” where vans didn’t venture too far away from the contractors’ headquarters. (The Information)\n\nNevertheless, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, Ross Rachey, noted that once the vans are in production, \"they would have a range of 150 miles, which is double the range of the majority of Amazon's routes.\" Notably, the company also quickly emphasized that these test vans are not fully developed yet.\nWe believe a successful launch program with Amazon could open up many potential opportunities outside of the Last Mile segment. Investors should note that Amazon's exclusive partnership with Rivian is limited to Last Mile. But, the commercial space is much larger than the Last Mile segment. Rivian also raved about its market opportunities in the larger commercial space, as Scaringe added (edited):\n\nAmazon represents such a large pool of demand for us.So it's really critical that we do not starve them of vehicles. Nevertheless, the RCV platform was architected and designed \n fully contemplating vehicles beyond Last Mile, such as in the cargo space, or in the workspace. So there's a whole host of opportunities that exists both in large volumes, but also across a very long spread-out tail of commercial applications. Thus, we also have an eye on launching non-EDV versions on the RCV platform to capitalize on these opportunities. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nSo, is RIVN Stock a Buy/Hold/Sell Now?\nRivian revenue and adjusted EBIT margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nRIVN and TSLA stock EV/Fwd Revenue valuation comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nConsensus estimates point to a largely successful ramp, as we explained earlier. As a result, Rivian's revenue is estimated to reach $27.84B by FY25. However, the company is not expected to be profitable based on adjusted EBIT margins by then. Therefore, investors are encouraged to monitor its production ramp and profitability dynamics moving forward carefully.\nNevertheless, its valuations have dropped significantly since its earlier momentum spike. The stock has declined more than 25% since our Neutral call, as we encouraged investors to wait for the dip.\nIf we consider Rivian's valuations against Tesla moving forward, it may seem more reasonable than the EV leader. However, investors should note that Tesla is already a solidly profitable EV maker. It also has proven its production ramp capabilities exceptionally well. Moreover, its brand value has also increased tremendously globally. Therefore, comparing their revenue multiples directly without adjusting for Tesla's advantages would not make sense.\nBased on Rivian stock's EV/FY25 revenue multiple of 3.4x, it's trading at 50% of Tesla's FY25 revenue multiple. Therefore, we think RIVN stock looks fairly valued now. Nevertheless, we believe that RIVN stock remains a highly speculative play. However, the company seems to be getting well on track to meet its mid-term production guidance. Therefore, the current weakness could offer speculative investors a potential opportunity to add exposure at a more reasonable valuation.\nConsequently,we revise our rating on RIVN stock to Buy.However, we would like to caution that RIVN stock may be suitable for speculative investors only. Moreover, the stock could continue to exhibit tremendous volatility. Therefore, investors are encouraged to add in phases.\nThis article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693527990,"gmtCreate":1640051925461,"gmtModify":1640054322684,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>the stock that keep sinking","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>the stock that keep sinking","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$the stock that keep sinking","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60c0100428d7ab71c5f40bdc06ab497","width":"1080","height":"2351"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693527990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690976531,"gmtCreate":1639627153237,"gmtModify":1639627153468,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes and remind me not buy FOMO stock anymore","listText":"yes and remind me not buy FOMO stock anymore","text":"yes and remind me not buy FOMO stock anymore","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690976531","repostId":"1143795954","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143795954","pubTimestamp":1639613655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143795954?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Value Trap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143795954","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir is an overvalued government contractor.\nThe business has no intrinsic scale value.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir is an overvalued government contractor.</li>\n <li>The business has no intrinsic scale value.</li>\n <li>Palantir’s revenue growth, estimated at 40% this year, is still grossly overvalued.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), a software company, has seen its share price fall significantly recently as investors exited high-growth, high-multiple stocks. At 24 times sales, I believe PLTR stock is still significantly overvalued, and investors should brace themselves for new lows.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>A Government Consulting Business With Three Major Issues</b></p>\n<p>Someone needs to explain to me what all the fuss is about with the big data analytics company Palantir. Palantir is frequently lauded for its software capabilities, which provide customers with data intelligence insights that, ostensibly, improve managerial decision making, but I do not see Palantir as what everyone else does: a unique platform business cashing in on the big data market.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Palantir is best known for its various \"foundries.\" Palantir's foundries are data management and aggregation systems that assist institutions in efficiently centralizing and storing data. As businesses and government agencies collect more data, the complexities grow rapidly, necessitating the use of software solutions. Palantir is collaborating with businesses and governments to reduce complexity and make use of large data volumes for algorithmic predictions. Palantir has had some success with this type of business, if success is defined solely by sales growth. For example, Palantir's 3Q21 revenue increased by 36% YoY to $392 million. Palantir's main source of revenue, government revenues, increased by 34% YoY, while commercial revenues, which include all of Palantir's business activities outside of government, increased by 37% YoY.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Revenue growth, on the other hand, is not a concern for Palantir. Palantir's problems are much deeper, and there is clearly more than one issue here.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The first issue with Palantir is that, while the company's sales are increasing at a healthy clip, this is not translating into profits for shareholders. Palantir's revenue increased by 44% to $1.11 billion in the first three quarters of 2021. The sales forecast for 2021 calls for up to a 40% increase in sales. That's a good start, but what about profits?</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Despite a 44% increase in revenue in 2021, Palantir's profit picture appears to be dire. The company lost $364 million in 2021 alone, and the year isn't even over yet. The total loss for the year could exceed $400 million. Not bad for a company that has been in operation for nearly 20 years and \"grows revenues at a 40% annual rate,\" right? Profits after nearly two decades of operation appear to be too high a bar for Palantir to clear.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The second major issue for Palantir, despite its big data allure, is its lack of scalability. Contrary to popular belief, Palantir is little more than a well-paid government consultant whose consulting business is not scalable in any way, shape, or form. Palantir also does not operate a \"platform business\" in the same way that Metaverse (NASDAQ:FB) or Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) do. For example, Metaverse collects customer data through a single platform, the Facebook platform. Netflix scales its moving streaming platform, which can add new customers at near-zero marginal costs. Palantir requires personnel to work with each individual client, coach them, and explain platform features. This is not a sustainable business model. It is a software-based consulting business model.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The third issue with Palantir, aside from its inability to operate profitably after two decades and its business model's lack of inherent scalability, is that profits made in Palantir's business are siphoned off by insiders who are compensated royally through stock packages at the expense of shareholders. Palantir has increased the number of shares by 12% in one year, and it now has more than 2 billion shares outstanding. As a result, business profits are primarily distributed to highly compensated insiders, rather than to the company's shareholders.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>A Fantasy Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Let's be clear about what we're talking about. We are dealing with a company that is growing its sales by 30-40% per year, which means Palantir will have revenues in the $1.5 billion range by 2021. Give or take fifty million dollars. It is the same company that has a misunderstood \"platform business model,\" no profits after twenty years of operations, and prioritizes insider stock compensation over shareholder dilution in recent years. They are likely to see further dilution in the coming years.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Nonetheless, this company continues to trade at a sales multiple of twenty-four. This means that an investor pays 24 times the expected sales amount for the opportunity to invest in Palantir's loss-making \"big data prediction\" business. Palantir remains outrageously overvalued, despite a significant correction since November.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>My Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I'd say the valuation is a joke or a calculation error if I didn't know any better. However, this does not appear to be the case. Apparently, a sizable portion of the investor population believes that Palantir, despite its lack of profits and excessive dilution, is worth 24 times sales. In normal circumstances, 24 times earnings would be excessive. Palantir's business has no scale, which calls into question the company's positioning as a growth stock. Palantir is expected to fall further as investors begin to exit high-multiple stocks. PLTR is nothing more than a value trap, nothing less.</p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Value Trap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Value Trap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 08:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475365-palantir-a-value-trap><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir is an overvalued government contractor.\nThe business has no intrinsic scale value.\nPalantir’s revenue growth, estimated at 40% this year, is still grossly overvalued.\n\n\n\nPalantir (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475365-palantir-a-value-trap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475365-palantir-a-value-trap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143795954","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is an overvalued government contractor.\nThe business has no intrinsic scale value.\nPalantir’s revenue growth, estimated at 40% this year, is still grossly overvalued.\n\n\n\nPalantir (NYSE:PLTR), a software company, has seen its share price fall significantly recently as investors exited high-growth, high-multiple stocks. At 24 times sales, I believe PLTR stock is still significantly overvalued, and investors should brace themselves for new lows.\n\nA Government Consulting Business With Three Major Issues\nSomeone needs to explain to me what all the fuss is about with the big data analytics company Palantir. Palantir is frequently lauded for its software capabilities, which provide customers with data intelligence insights that, ostensibly, improve managerial decision making, but I do not see Palantir as what everyone else does: a unique platform business cashing in on the big data market.\n\nPalantir is best known for its various \"foundries.\" Palantir's foundries are data management and aggregation systems that assist institutions in efficiently centralizing and storing data. As businesses and government agencies collect more data, the complexities grow rapidly, necessitating the use of software solutions. Palantir is collaborating with businesses and governments to reduce complexity and make use of large data volumes for algorithmic predictions. Palantir has had some success with this type of business, if success is defined solely by sales growth. For example, Palantir's 3Q21 revenue increased by 36% YoY to $392 million. Palantir's main source of revenue, government revenues, increased by 34% YoY, while commercial revenues, which include all of Palantir's business activities outside of government, increased by 37% YoY.\n\nRevenue growth, on the other hand, is not a concern for Palantir. Palantir's problems are much deeper, and there is clearly more than one issue here.\n\nThe first issue with Palantir is that, while the company's sales are increasing at a healthy clip, this is not translating into profits for shareholders. Palantir's revenue increased by 44% to $1.11 billion in the first three quarters of 2021. The sales forecast for 2021 calls for up to a 40% increase in sales. That's a good start, but what about profits?\n\nDespite a 44% increase in revenue in 2021, Palantir's profit picture appears to be dire. The company lost $364 million in 2021 alone, and the year isn't even over yet. The total loss for the year could exceed $400 million. Not bad for a company that has been in operation for nearly 20 years and \"grows revenues at a 40% annual rate,\" right? Profits after nearly two decades of operation appear to be too high a bar for Palantir to clear.\n\nThe second major issue for Palantir, despite its big data allure, is its lack of scalability. Contrary to popular belief, Palantir is little more than a well-paid government consultant whose consulting business is not scalable in any way, shape, or form. Palantir also does not operate a \"platform business\" in the same way that Metaverse (NASDAQ:FB) or Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) do. For example, Metaverse collects customer data through a single platform, the Facebook platform. Netflix scales its moving streaming platform, which can add new customers at near-zero marginal costs. Palantir requires personnel to work with each individual client, coach them, and explain platform features. This is not a sustainable business model. It is a software-based consulting business model.\n\nThe third issue with Palantir, aside from its inability to operate profitably after two decades and its business model's lack of inherent scalability, is that profits made in Palantir's business are siphoned off by insiders who are compensated royally through stock packages at the expense of shareholders. Palantir has increased the number of shares by 12% in one year, and it now has more than 2 billion shares outstanding. As a result, business profits are primarily distributed to highly compensated insiders, rather than to the company's shareholders.\n\nA Fantasy Valuation\nLet's be clear about what we're talking about. We are dealing with a company that is growing its sales by 30-40% per year, which means Palantir will have revenues in the $1.5 billion range by 2021. Give or take fifty million dollars. It is the same company that has a misunderstood \"platform business model,\" no profits after twenty years of operations, and prioritizes insider stock compensation over shareholder dilution in recent years. They are likely to see further dilution in the coming years.\n\nNonetheless, this company continues to trade at a sales multiple of twenty-four. This means that an investor pays 24 times the expected sales amount for the opportunity to invest in Palantir's loss-making \"big data prediction\" business. Palantir remains outrageously overvalued, despite a significant correction since November.\n\n\nMy Conclusion\nI'd say the valuation is a joke or a calculation error if I didn't know any better. However, this does not appear to be the case. Apparently, a sizable portion of the investor population believes that Palantir, despite its lack of profits and excessive dilution, is worth 24 times sales. In normal circumstances, 24 times earnings would be excessive. Palantir's business has no scale, which calls into question the company's positioning as a growth stock. Palantir is expected to fall further as investors begin to exit high-multiple stocks. PLTR is nothing more than a value trap, nothing less.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607191759,"gmtCreate":1639495036014,"gmtModify":1639495036206,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>how to escape ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>how to escape ?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$how to escape ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d2cf46a767174f417cde020b14b1e6e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607191759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604259814,"gmtCreate":1639406110905,"gmtModify":1639406197533,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>again another tech stock trend go up,this one go down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>again another tech stock trend go up,this one go down","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$again another tech stock trend go up,this one go down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604259814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606084168,"gmtCreate":1638801674260,"gmtModify":1638801674481,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>tonight will break &lt;18","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>tonight will break &lt;18","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$tonight will break <18","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08fdda3eb0e454394a9c1864e7e33d74","width":"1080","height":"3402"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606084168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603724809,"gmtCreate":1638455317377,"gmtModify":1638455317504,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has secured an additional $43M contract from the Space Systems Command's (SSC) Cross-Mission Ground &amp; Communications Enterprise (ECX).Should i buy more tonight ?","listText":"Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has secured an additional $43M contract from the Space Systems Command's (SSC) Cross-Mission Ground &amp; Communications Enterprise (ECX).Should i buy more tonight ?","text":"Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) has secured an additional $43M contract from the Space Systems Command's (SSC) Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise (ECX).Should i buy more tonight ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0633e38308478735ea9fec37b419785","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603724809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603229692,"gmtCreate":1638415304748,"gmtModify":1638415542236,"author":{"id":"3582679333932635","authorId":"3582679333932635","name":"laurent_rio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d216a8faac1f15369f56934d3025ddec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582679333932635","idStr":"3582679333932635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>climb a bit and then sink again.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>climb a bit and then sink again.&nbsp;","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$climb a bit and then sink again.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60dda2a093439cf09d19cb11fe5a0e39","width":"1080","height":"3444"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603229692","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}