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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-21
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-19
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  Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week
  - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S
  Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-18
  Nice
  Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week
  - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S
  Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-17
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-16
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  What the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?
  All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on
  What the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-14
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-13
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  Bull Run Enters Late Cycle
  Summary The short-term correction has probably not ended yet. Macroeconomic indicators signal furth
  Bull Run Enters Late Cycle
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-12
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-11
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- Roykhor77Roykhor77
  ·2021-12-10
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  The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst
  In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be
  The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst
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Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S","content":"<html><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p>\n<p>All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p>\n<p>Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p>\n<p>All of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p>\n<p>Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p>\n<p>Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p>\n<p>\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p>\n<p>Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. 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Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p>\n<p>FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-18 07:59 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\"><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-...</p>\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699660415,"gmtCreate":1639792844479,"gmtModify":1639792955245,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699660415","repostId":"1116106959","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116106959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639785552,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116106959?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116106959","media":"Reuters","summary":" - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S","content":"<html><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p>\n<p>All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p>\n<p>Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p>\n<p>All of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p>\n<p>Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p>\n<p>Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p>\n<p>\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p>\n<p>Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p>\n<p>In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p>\n<p>On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p>\n<p>With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p>\n<p>In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p>\n<p>FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-18 07:59 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\"><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-...</p>\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690778965,"gmtCreate":1639714642978,"gmtModify":1639714643823,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690778965","repostId":"1129979905","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690901477,"gmtCreate":1639618392590,"gmtModify":1639618393435,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690901477","repostId":"1115910347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115910347","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639615452,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115910347?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115910347","media":"market watch","summary":"All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on","content":"<html><body><p></p>\n<p>All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on what the central bank will do to keep the economy rebounding from the pandemic while countering the hot inflation that has consumers’ wallets sizzling.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Market observers were betting the Fed will conclude its bond buying — a move to help the economy in the pandemic’s earlier phases — quicker than expected and chart a course for more interest rate hikes.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The Fed said Wednesday afternoon it would reduce its bond purchases by $30 billion a month so it could end the program in March, instead of June. The Fed penciled in three rate hikes in 2022, instead of one hike.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Powell talked about the decision at a Wednesday afternoon press conference, saying the economy was strong enough now to handle the potential steps.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We, at the Fed, will do everything we can to complete the recovery in employment and achieve our price stability goal,” Powell said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>New projections from Fed officials foresee the closely-watched federal funds rate climbing 0.9% by the end of next year, to 1.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.1% by the end of 2024.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>In the meantime, some experts say consumers can do their own preparation for the Fed decision: Try to pay off their own credit-card bills as fast as possible now in order to avoid the extra interest rate costs waiting in future.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>This is because annual percentage rates (APR) on credit cards hinge closely on the rates and targets set by the Fed, experts told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Credit-card issuers generally start their calculations on APR by looking at the U.S. prime rate, which is the rate that banks would extend to preferred customers.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>When banks determine the prime rate, they are looking at factors including the target level of the federal funds rate. (That’s the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve committee determining what banks charge each other for short-term, overnight loans.)</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Layer on extra lending costs, like the so-called “credit risk” of a potential customer, and that’s essentially the ingredients of a credit card’s APR, said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, which provides insurance products and wealth management services to credit unions.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>So when Fed rate hikes zoom into view and then happen, consumers quickly can have their own future rate hikes to absorb. That’s worth knowing during a bustling holiday season amid rising costs.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“The best financial move they can make is pay off that credit-card balance,” Rick said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>If banks “see rate increases on the horizon and they anticipate changes like a taper, you may end seeing rates increase for different types of loans,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>“Credit cards are among the most influenced by the Fed because so many credit card interest rates are based on the prime rate,” he said. “If you have credit-card debt now, it would probably be a good idea to assume that your rates are going to go up in the not-too-distant future. If you can put a little more to credit card debt to knock it down, the better off you are.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Mortgage rates are also influenced by the Fed’s actions, noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Mortgages rates could rise from about 3% now to 3.7% by the end of 2022, according to a consensus of forecasts,” he said, adding that rates on loans, including credits cards “will increase more or less in lockstep with federal fund rate increases.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.1% for the week ending Dec. 9.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The rates on savings accounts and CDs will also increase, Frick said — “and if the Fed is successful in driving inflation down, savers could see the interest they earn on accounts finally catch up with inflation.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>But credit-card users could see the rates potentially rise quickly after a rate hike.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Following even a quarter percentage point increase in the fed funds rate, it historically takes credit-card companies one or two months to bring on higher APRs, Schulz said. That’s one or two billing cycles, but, Schulz added, “They could do it the next day.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>The average APR on all new card offers was 19.55% this month, up from 19.49% in November, according to LendingTree. The maximum APR was 23.21% and the minimum was 15.89%, according to the online platform where people can shop around on credit card offers, car loans and mortgages.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Suppose a person has a $5,000 balance on their credit card and an APR between 19% and 20%, said Schulz. A single percentage point increase would tack on approximately $70 to $80 to completely pay the owed amount, plus interest, he said.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>That might not sound like a lot to some people, Schulz said. “When you are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to knock that debt really does matter.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Smaller added costs matter even for financially secure households watching rising prices burn into their disposable income. And the timing on the Fed decision matters too because the closely-watched decision comes during the holiday season.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Typically, consumers incur “modest” increases in their credit card balances during the second and third quarters, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. Then, balances balloon during the holiday season in the fourth quarter and people pay off the balances in the first quarter, researchers said. Then the cycle repeats itself.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>On this go-round, there could be higher credit card costs waiting for people in 2022 when they are paying off their 2021 holiday spending spree and traveling to make up lost time with friends and family.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Holiday shopping could break records this year and reach $859 billion sales, according to the National Retail Federation.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Americans held roughly $800 billion in credit card debt during the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. That’s a $17 billion increase from the second quarter, but the balance is still $123 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Fed decisions can also influence the rates on auto loans, where rates are influenced by interest rates on Treasury notes, Rick noted. As of October, the average APR on a five-year auto loan for a new car was 3.89% and 6.12% for a used car, according to Bankrate.com. But some current offers were in the 2.5% range, the site noted.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>So does that mean people should get a loan now for a new ride? Rick doesn’t think so.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>For one thing, there’s an inventory problem with cars, like so many other products snarled in the current supply chain woes. Besides, Rick ultimately thinks car prices will fall as supply-chain issues ease. The savings from lower costs will be greater than the added costs of higher interest in his view.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Likewise, Schulz said, “by the time the auto loan rate go up, hopefully we will see auto prices revert a little more to normal and everything balances out.”</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>As consumers figure out their next moves, the stock market liked what it heard from Powell on Wednesday. Benchmarks climbed in the afternoon and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.08%closed up 1.1%, while the S&P 500 SPX, +1.63%finished up 1.6%.</p>\n<p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>What the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Fed decision means for your wallet, your credit-card bill — and how far will mortgage rates go?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 08:44 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-fed-decision-means-for-your-wallet-and-your-credit-card-bill-11639595377?mod=newsviewer_click\"><strong>market watch</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on what the central bank will do to keep the economy rebounding from the pandemic while countering the...</p>\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-fed-decision-means-for-your-wallet-and-your-credit-card-bill-11639595377?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-fed-decision-means-for-your-wallet-and-your-credit-card-bill-11639595377?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115910347","content_text":"All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the market digested the news Wednesday on what the central bank will do to keep the economy rebounding from the pandemic while countering the hot inflation that has consumers’ wallets sizzling.\n\nMarket observers were betting the Fed will conclude its bond buying — a move to help the economy in the pandemic’s earlier phases — quicker than expected and chart a course for more interest rate hikes.\n\n\nThe Fed said Wednesday afternoon it would reduce its bond purchases by $30 billion a month so it could end the program in March, instead of June. The Fed penciled in three rate hikes in 2022, instead of one hike.\n\nPowell talked about the decision at a Wednesday afternoon press conference, saying the economy was strong enough now to handle the potential steps.\n\n“We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We, at the Fed, will do everything we can to complete the recovery in employment and achieve our price stability goal,” Powell said.\n\nNew projections from Fed officials foresee the closely-watched federal funds rate climbing 0.9% by the end of next year, to 1.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.1% by the end of 2024.\n\nIn the meantime, some experts say consumers can do their own preparation for the Fed decision: Try to pay off their own credit-card bills as fast as possible now in order to avoid the extra interest rate costs waiting in future.\n\nThis is because annual percentage rates (APR) on credit cards hinge closely on the rates and targets set by the Fed, experts told MarketWatch.\n\nCredit-card issuers generally start their calculations on APR by looking at the U.S. prime rate, which is the rate that banks would extend to preferred customers.\n\nWhen banks determine the prime rate, they are looking at factors including the target level of the federal funds rate. (That’s the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve committee determining what banks charge each other for short-term, overnight loans.)\n\n\nLayer on extra lending costs, like the so-called “credit risk” of a potential customer, and that’s essentially the ingredients of a credit card’s APR, said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, which provides insurance products and wealth management services to credit unions.\n\nSo when Fed rate hikes zoom into view and then happen, consumers quickly can have their own future rate hikes to absorb. That’s worth knowing during a bustling holiday season amid rising costs.\n\n“The best financial move they can make is pay off that credit-card balance,” Rick said.\n\nIf banks “see rate increases on the horizon and they anticipate changes like a taper, you may end seeing rates increase for different types of loans,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.\n\n“Credit cards are among the most influenced by the Fed because so many credit card interest rates are based on the prime rate,” he said. “If you have credit-card debt now, it would probably be a good idea to assume that your rates are going to go up in the not-too-distant future. If you can put a little more to credit card debt to knock it down, the better off you are.”\n\nMortgage rates are also influenced by the Fed’s actions, noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Mortgages rates could rise from about 3% now to 3.7% by the end of 2022, according to a consensus of forecasts,” he said, adding that rates on loans, including credits cards “will increase more or less in lockstep with federal fund rate increases.”\n\nThe 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.1% for the week ending Dec. 9.\n\nThe rates on savings accounts and CDs will also increase, Frick said — “and if the Fed is successful in driving inflation down, savers could see the interest they earn on accounts finally catch up with inflation.”\n\nBut credit-card users could see the rates potentially rise quickly after a rate hike.\n\nFollowing even a quarter percentage point increase in the fed funds rate, it historically takes credit-card companies one or two months to bring on higher APRs, Schulz said. That’s one or two billing cycles, but, Schulz added, “They could do it the next day.”\n\nThe average APR on all new card offers was 19.55% this month, up from 19.49% in November, according to LendingTree. The maximum APR was 23.21% and the minimum was 15.89%, according to the online platform where people can shop around on credit card offers, car loans and mortgages.\n\nSuppose a person has a $5,000 balance on their credit card and an APR between 19% and 20%, said Schulz. A single percentage point increase would tack on approximately $70 to $80 to completely pay the owed amount, plus interest, he said.\n\nThat might not sound like a lot to some people, Schulz said. “When you are living paycheck to paycheck, trying to knock that debt really does matter.”\n\nSmaller added costs matter even for financially secure households watching rising prices burn into their disposable income. And the timing on the Fed decision matters too because the closely-watched decision comes during the holiday season.\n\nTypically, consumers incur “modest” increases in their credit card balances during the second and third quarters, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. Then, balances balloon during the holiday season in the fourth quarter and people pay off the balances in the first quarter, researchers said. Then the cycle repeats itself.\n\nOn this go-round, there could be higher credit card costs waiting for people in 2022 when they are paying off their 2021 holiday spending spree and traveling to make up lost time with friends and family.\n\nHoliday shopping could break records this year and reach $859 billion sales, according to the National Retail Federation.\n\nAmericans held roughly $800 billion in credit card debt during the third quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. That’s a $17 billion increase from the second quarter, but the balance is still $123 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.\n\nFed decisions can also influence the rates on auto loans, where rates are influenced by interest rates on Treasury notes, Rick noted. As of October, the average APR on a five-year auto loan for a new car was 3.89% and 6.12% for a used car, according to Bankrate.com. But some current offers were in the 2.5% range, the site noted.\n\nSo does that mean people should get a loan now for a new ride? Rick doesn’t think so.\n\nFor one thing, there’s an inventory problem with cars, like so many other products snarled in the current supply chain woes. Besides, Rick ultimately thinks car prices will fall as supply-chain issues ease. The savings from lower costs will be greater than the added costs of higher interest in his view.\n\nLikewise, Schulz said, “by the time the auto loan rate go up, hopefully we will see auto prices revert a little more to normal and everything balances out.”\n\nAs consumers figure out their next moves, the stock market liked what it heard from Powell on Wednesday. Benchmarks climbed in the afternoon and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.08%closed up 1.1%, while the S&P 500 SPX, +1.63%finished up 1.6%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604798595,"gmtCreate":1639444154061,"gmtModify":1639444154907,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604798595","repostId":"2191984334","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604821507,"gmtCreate":1639372831487,"gmtModify":1639372832245,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604821507","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<html><body><p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n<li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>\n<li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>\n<li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img height=\"auto\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-height=\"1025\" tg-width=\"1536\" width=\"100%\"/><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img height=\"auto\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-height=\"511\" tg-width=\"640\" width=\"100%\"/><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p>\n<p>Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img height=\"auto\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-height=\"379\" tg-width=\"640\" width=\"100%\"/><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p>\n<p>Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img height=\"auto\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-height=\"390\" tg-width=\"640\" width=\"100%\"/><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p>\n<p>Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p>\n<p>All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:57 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\"><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...</p>\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605725180,"gmtCreate":1639269042839,"gmtModify":1639269043601,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605725180","repostId":"2190484675","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605229914,"gmtCreate":1639182718966,"gmtModify":1639182719748,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605229914","repostId":"1199826178","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605945190,"gmtCreate":1639105870319,"gmtModify":1639106427198,"author":{"id":"3577415925422402","authorId":"3577415925422402","name":"Roykhor77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dceebb2c02d2b0c1df8a4c7c7ebba8d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577415925422402","authorIdStr":"3577415925422402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605945190","repostId":"1173696854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173696854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639100666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173696854?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 09:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173696854","media":"Fortune","summary":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be","content":"<html><body><p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.</p>\n<p>A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.</p>\n<p>If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?</p>\n<p>Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!</p>\n<p>As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.</p>\n<p>To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.</p>\n<p><b>Pinpointing the moment</b></p>\n<p>One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.</p>\n<p>Currently,<b>the unemployment rate</b> has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the historical pattern reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.</p>\n<p><img height=\"auto\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-height=\"272\" tg-width=\"705\" width=\"100%\"/></p>\n<p><b>The yield curve</b> is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.</p>\n<p>When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was virtually inverted at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.</p>\n<p>Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein jected $4 trillion of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.</p>\n<p>My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.</p>\n<p>Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-10 09:44 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html\"><strong>Fortune</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust...</p>\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173696854","content_text":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.\nA caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.\nIf a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?\nConsumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!\nAs inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.\nTo accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.\nPinpointing the moment\nOne of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.\nCurrently,the unemployment rate has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the historical pattern reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.\n\nThe yield curve is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.\nWhen the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was virtually inverted at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.\nNow the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein jected $4 trillion of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.\nMy fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.\nWithout price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}