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- Hero_9965Hero_9965
  ·02-28
  四季度营业利润只占总利润的一半。利润水分有点大
  667 评论
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- Hero_9965Hero_9965
  ·2021-06-04
  最后，金融资产对资金的吸附力会下降。资金涌入会降低股市长期的边际报酬率，拉低机构对未来回报的预期。股市下跌引发投资者盈余下降，减小金融资产对资金的吸附作用（空转时滞降低）。另外大宗商品期货的上涨会在中期持续推升原材料价格，引发中期通胀压力。而美元的热环流会对新兴国家产生输入性通胀，导致原材料价格进一步上涨
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- Hero_9965Hero_9965
  ·2021-06-04
  此外长期还需考虑债务因素。去年底全球累计债务超281万亿美元，美国企业债超30万亿。债务规模决定利率无法大幅抬升。TFP停滞决定企业盈利将保持极低增长，偿债能力严重不足。未来大概率会进行新一轮债务货币化，需要较强的通胀消化债务泡沫
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- Hero_9965Hero_9965
  ·2021-06-04
  中期确实如你所言随着供需缺口的缓和，通胀趋于下行。但长期而言积极财政带来的货币供给大幅增加、TFP增速停滞及全球化逆流对供给端的长期冲击会引发通胀整体上行。即便贫富差距导致需求不足，实际工资下跌，但名义工资可能仍表现为上涨
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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