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- 混沌化石混沌化石
  ·2020-10-30
  沙发
  川普仍将连任的十大指标
  吵吵嚷嚷的美国大选，还差一周就要揭盅开示，全世界的眼睛都关注着这两位年近八旬的老人，谁能率先冲过“270张选举人票”的终点线。受美国主流媒体——特别是像CNN、《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》等几家“逢
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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n川普仍将连任的十大指标\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-28 07:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6dJEJR839WPlWLuZ1LDLZQ><strong>价值世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>吵吵嚷嚷的美国大选，还差一周就要揭盅开示，全世界的眼睛都关注着这两位年近八旬的老人，谁能率先冲过“270张选举人票”的终点线。\n受美国主流媒体——特别是像CNN、《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》等几家“逢特朗普必反“的大牌媒体的影响，中国国内众多关于美国大选以及大选结果的预测，坚定地认为拜登稳操胜券，必将把特朗普赶出白宫，还美国政坛以清静与平稳。\n这种看法，是对美国国内民情民意的误读，更是没有深刻理解...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6dJEJR839WPlWLuZ1LDLZQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28c4d22e90014b4017c029b5ecdc2889","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6dJEJR839WPlWLuZ1LDLZQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171177881","content_text":"吵吵嚷嚷的美国大选，还差一周就要揭盅开示，全世界的眼睛都关注着这两位年近八旬的老人，谁能率先冲过“270张选举人票”的终点线。\n受美国主流媒体——特别是像CNN、《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》等几家“逢特朗普必反“的大牌媒体的影响，中国国内众多关于美国大选以及大选结果的预测，坚定地认为拜登稳操胜券，必将把特朗普赶出白宫，还美国政坛以清静与平稳。\n这种看法，是对美国国内民情民意的误读，更是没有深刻理解特朗普之所以能够在四年前横空出世、给美国政坛带来一场完美风暴的深层原因。\n简而言之，虽然因为邮寄选票暴增和新冠疫情的干扰，今年美国大选的最终结果会出现一定时间的延迟，甚至局部地区会因为选票结果引发争议，但笔者认为特朗普最终仍能以压倒性优势击败民主党对手拜登，顺利获得连任。\n很多人马上问，“不对呀，美国民调结果一直说拜登大幅领先，特朗普根本没戏啊?”是的，别忘了：2016年大选前一天全国民调结果，也是希拉里大幅领先特朗普，而且其领先幅度甚至超过现在的拜登。\n在2016年大选的当天晚上，《纽约时报》给出的希拉里胜选概率是92%。但是，结果如何呢?特朗普最终以选举人票306-232的压倒性优势入主白宫，同时把“民调专家们”和所谓的“美国大选专家们”的眼镜震碎了一地。\n\n既然关于大选结果的直接问卷不可信，那么，还有什么指标能够预测美国选民们的真实投票意向呢?篇幅所限，以下仅列出十大相关指标，作为以上论断的佐证。\n\n综上，虽然美国民调机构还是每天不厌其烦地重复着“拜登遥遥领先特朗普”的老调子——就像四年前一样，但从我观测和掌握的指标数据来看，即将到来的美国大选，不是谁输谁赢的问题，而是特朗普赢多赢少的问题。\n虽然一周后的大选会有拖延和争议，但特朗普胜选连任，几无悬念。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}