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  ·2021-07-06
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  油价狂飙，可能是美股的一个下跌预警？
  普通美国人的生活成本越来越高。图片来源：子图网担心通货膨胀的股票投资者应该密切关注不断上涨的油价。美国经济快速增长背后，油价可能导致消费支出热潮脱轨，从食品杂货到住房材料再到汽油，普通美国人的生
  油价狂飙，可能是美股的一个下跌预警？
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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77181><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>普通美国人的生活成本越来越高。\n\n图片来源：子图网\n担心通货膨胀的股票投资者应该密切关注不断上涨的油价。美国经济快速增长背后，油价可能导致消费支出热潮脱轨，从食品杂货到住房材料再到汽油，普通美国人的生活成本越来越高，即便对于那些在疫情期间保住了工作的人来说亦是如此。\n以食物作为例子，仅在过去六个月里，彭博农业分类指数（Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex）就上涨了20%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77181\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1081c0da9b05adb44f2925a6f9fc34a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/77181","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149732446","content_text":"普通美国人的生活成本越来越高。\n\n图片来源：子图网\n担心通货膨胀的股票投资者应该密切关注不断上涨的油价。美国经济快速增长背后，油价可能导致消费支出热潮脱轨，从食品杂货到住房材料再到汽油，普通美国人的生活成本越来越高，即便对于那些在疫情期间保住了工作的人来说亦是如此。\n以食物作为例子，仅在过去六个月里，彭博农业分类指数（Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex）就上涨了20%，这是2010-2012年以来的最高涨幅。当时，全球的粮食供应受到一系列全球气候事件的影响，其中包括美国的严重干旱和俄罗斯的一场大规模火灾。埃及和突尼斯等以面包为主食的国家遭受了严重的打击。地缘政治分析人士说，这轮粮食减产是诱发阿拉伯之春的原因之一。\n我们有必要认识到原材料价格上涨的现实后果。\n目前油价已回升至2018年全球贸易局势动荡时期的水平。2021年上半年，油价上涨约26%，之后又上涨了45%。目前油价在每桶75美元左右，策略师和交易机构预计油价将达到每桶100美元。尽管这可能有益于供应商，但对美国等消费驱动型经济体来说却是个坏消息。\n油价上涨对股市影响巨大。消费者支出已经开始放缓，财政刺激的效果可能会在9月底前显现出来。从杂货到汽油的价格都在上涨，这可能会导致消费和旅行的减少。这意味着许多美国公司的收入和潜在收益都会减少。\n市场已经对这种情形有所担忧。我们不妨观察一下标普500指数和布伦特原油之间66天的相关性，它通常是正相关，因为石油需求往往与强劲的经济增长相伴而生，而强劲的经济增长会推动股市上涨。但图中显示该相关性是负的，这是我们自2017年以来再没见过的。\n\n外媒分析指出，这两个市场上次脱钩发生在4年前，当时原油供应过剩是人们最担心的问题。时任特朗普总统刚上任，他的促增长和减税议程提振了市场；但与此同时，美联储加快了紧缩步伐。\n如果从市场的角度来看，这种相关性仍然是负的，那么包括原油在内的大宗商品上涨将是一个警告——可能预示这股市将会下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}