油价狂飙，可能是美股的一个下跌预警？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

油价狂飙，可能是美股的一个下跌预警？

金十数据2021-07-06

普通美国人的生活成本越来越高。图片来源：子图网担心通货膨胀的股票投资者应该密切关注不断上涨的油价。美国经济快速增长背后，油价可能导致消费支出热潮脱轨，从食品杂货到住房材料再到汽油，普通美国人的生活成本越来越高，即便对于那些在疫情期间保住了工作的人来说亦是如此。以食物作为例子，仅在过去六个月里，彭博农业分类指数（Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex）就上涨了20%，...

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万象入星辰
·2021-07-06
还可以伸伸
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Santaurora
·2021-07-06
四年前特朗普=今年的疫情提振效应明显。
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qwsqws
·2021-07-06
怎么就天天盼着别人跌呢
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钞能力系Me
·2021-07-06
天天喊空[笑哭]
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- godaddygo:
  [流泪]
  2021-07-06
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Alexkoay
·2021-07-06
[开心]
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- Alexkoay:
  [捂脸]
  2021-07-06
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赞我的今年账户翻十倍
·2021-07-06
华尔街操纵不了油价？
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- 云里梦里飞:
  可能去年亏太惨了现在缓口气
  2021-07-07
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Subindex）就上涨了20%，这是2010-2012年以来的最高涨幅。当时，全球的粮食供应受到一系列全球气候事件的影响，其中包括美国的严重干旱和俄罗斯的一场大规模火灾。埃及和突尼斯等以面包为主食的国家遭受了严重的打击。地缘政治分析人士说，这轮粮食减产是诱发阿拉伯之春的原因之一。\n我们有必要认识到原材料价格上涨的现实后果。\n目前油价已回升至2018年全球贸易局势动荡时期的水平。2021年上半年，油价上涨约26%，之后又上涨了45%。目前油价在每桶75美元左右，策略师和交易机构预计油价将达到每桶100美元。尽管这可能有益于供应商，但对美国等消费驱动型经济体来说却是个坏消息。\n油价上涨对股市影响巨大。消费者支出已经开始放缓，财政刺激的效果可能会在9月底前显现出来。从杂货到汽油的价格都在上涨，这可能会导致消费和旅行的减少。这意味着许多美国公司的收入和潜在收益都会减少。\n市场已经对这种情形有所担忧。我们不妨观察一下标普500指数和布伦特原油之间66天的相关性，它通常是正相关，因为石油需求往往与强劲的经济增长相伴而生，而强劲的经济增长会推动股市上涨。但图中显示该相关性是负的，这是我们自2017年以来再没见过的。\n\n外媒分析指出，这两个市场上次脱钩发生在4年前，当时原油供应过剩是人们最担心的问题。时任特朗普总统刚上任，他的促增长和减税议程提振了市场；但与此同时，美联储加快了紧缩步伐。\n如果从市场的角度来看，这种相关性仍然是负的，那么包括原油在内的大宗商品上涨将是一个警告——可能预示这股市将会下跌。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":157025797,"gmtCreate":1625556171719,"gmtModify":1625556171719,"author":{"id":"3562804247976669","authorId":"3562804247976669","name":"万象入星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a460741757ff1652ffd3f30a2b50095","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562804247976669","authorIdStr":"3562804247976669"},"htmlText":"还可以伸伸","listText":"还可以伸伸","text":"还可以伸伸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157025797","repostId":1149732446,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":154762050,"gmtCreate":1625546657270,"gmtModify":1633939765411,"author":{"id":"3579605723262688","authorId":"3579605723262688","name":"Santaurora","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a9f475016efaf44b28765b7eb47b48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579605723262688","authorIdStr":"3579605723262688"},"htmlText":"四年前特朗普=今年的疫情 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