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- 牛屎牛屎
  ·2020-03-11
  再来两个熔断就够了
  高盛：美股牛市将很快结束，标普500将再跌15%
  投资银行高盛首席美股策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）周三表示，美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市将很快走向终结，美股将经历比过去三周更大的损失。科斯汀在今日发布的研报中称，利率的历史性下跌不
  高盛：美股牛市将很快结束，标普500将再跌15%
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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：美股牛市将很快结束，标普500将再跌15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-11 22:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.qq.com/a/20200311/077411.htm><strong>腾讯证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资银行高盛首席美股策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）周三表示，美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市将很快走向终结，美股将经历比过去三周更大的损失。\n科斯汀在今日发布的研报中称，利率的历史性下跌不太可能阻止第二和第三季度企业利润的“崩溃”，并建议客户将投资转向收益稳定、资产负债表稳健的公司。\n“过去11年，标普500成分股的年化利润增幅达到13%，股价年化增幅达到16%，我们认为标普500...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.qq.com/a/20200311/077411.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b817fec86a26e1ff62f50642654e6f7","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.qq.com/a/20200311/077411.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181432619","content_text":"投资银行高盛首席美股策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）周三表示，美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市将很快走向终结，美股将经历比过去三周更大的损失。\n科斯汀在今日发布的研报中称，利率的历史性下跌不太可能阻止第二和第三季度企业利润的“崩溃”，并建议客户将投资转向收益稳定、资产负债表稳健的公司。\n“过去11年，标普500成分股的年化利润增幅达到13%，股价年化增幅达到16%，我们认为标普500成分股的牛市将很快结束。投资者最近几周已减持了股票，但没有达到本轮其他重大调整的低点，”科斯汀在研报中表示。\n科斯汀把标普500指数的年中目标位下调至2450点，意味着该投行认为该指数会较周二的收盘点位再下跌15%，接近于2018年12月的点位。也就是说，高盛当前预计，在过去一个月下跌14%的基础上，市场将再下跌15%。\n标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数当前均较2月份创出的历史最高收盘点位下跌了逾14%。最近几周，随着新型肺炎疫情在全球蔓延并威胁到工作场所的生产率，全球投资者都在抛售股票。一些人担心，疫情对产出的影响可能非常严重，会让一些国家的经济陷入衰退，这也是造成市场波动的主要原因之一。自2月份以来，美国股市每天的波动幅度从未低于1%。道指周一下跌超过2000点，创下自2008年金融危机以来的单日最大跌幅。不过该股指在周二反弹近5%，部分的收复失地。\n“实体经济和金融经济都显示出紧张的迹象，”科斯汀表示。“供应链已经中断，许多行业的终端需求也出现了下降。由于个人和企业都限制行动，旅行正在急剧收缩。航班、酒店、游轮和赌场的需求、入住骤降。员工被迫休假。”\n但伴随着对经济的广泛担忧，股市的损失因行业而异。科斯汀表示，他对2020年盈利疲软的预测取决于油价和利率的下滑，这“减少了能源和金融公司的利润”。这两个行业的表现逊于大盘，原因是原油价格暴跌打击了能源类股，长期利率暴跌威胁到银行利润率。“在这两个行业之外，美国商业活动也可能比我们最初预测的要弱，最近几周许多公司撤销或下调业绩展望，就凸显了这一点，”科斯汀说。\n在欧佩克（OPEC）未能说服俄罗斯减产原油之后，跟踪美国最大能源生产商表现的能源股ETF（Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund）本周下跌了23.9%。失败的谈判反过来又引发西德克萨斯中质原油价格下跌25%，以及能源股股价的大幅下跌。西方石油公司（Occidental 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