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杲杲

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- 杲杲杲杲
  ·07-10
  但是这个指标有个问题就是，gdp只代表国内生产总值，而美国在海外的资产是相当庞大的，这个数据现在看起来比较高，但如果把这些公司在海外的资产也加入到分母以后，可能就没有显得这么高了
  “巴菲特指标”发出警告！美股被极度高估
  “巴菲特指标”曾预示1987年和2000年的美股大跌，如今它再度发出警告。
  “巴菲特指标”发出警告！美股被极度高估
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- 杲杲杲杲
  ·2020-12-07
  老虎在线客服为什么没有反应？
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- 杲杲杲杲
  ·2020-07-17
  $诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$从6月1号到今天，没有失望，加油加油💪🏻
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- 杲杲杲杲
  ·2020-07-08
  $诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$真不容易啊，一直拿着。。。希望继续涨涨涨
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- 杲杲杲杲
  ·2020-06-11
  2020.06.11 复盘笔记 by 杲杲
  2020-06-11 成本现价浮动收益特斯拉(TSLA) 608.04 1,009.00 +65.94% 从最初拿他100多美元到现在1000，回想起来真的是五味杂陈，有兴奋，失落，奔溃再崛起。。。就像曾经的苹果一样，我相信特斯拉会越来越好，会成为新世界的领军者。
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  2020.06.11 复盘笔记 by 杲杲
- 杲杲杲杲
  ·2020-05-12
  2020.05.12 复盘笔记 by 杲杲
  2020-05-12 成本现价浮动收益 Moderna, Inc.(MRNA) 29.83 66.00 +121.22% 😊😊😊$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$
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  2020.05.12 复盘笔记 by 杲杲

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justify;\">自从首次称赞该指标以来，这位被称为奥马哈先知的人已经对该指标的态度有所保留，但像卡斯这样的投资者仍然使用它来帮助确定美股的估值水平。<strong>该指标过去相当可靠，它预示了1987年和2000年的大幅抛售，以及金融危机前夕的情况。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡斯表示，一般来说，<strong>当该指标达到其长期平均值的两倍标准差时，投资者应该开始注意。而今天它正处于这一水平。</strong>卡斯说，巴菲特最初被这个指标吸引的部分原因是他对容易被操纵的指标持怀疑态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，巴菲特指标并非唯一一个表明股票估值看起来被高估的指标。包括基于过去12个月市盈率、市销率和企业价值与销售额比率在内的其他流行估值指标，均高于历史上的第90百分位，卡斯说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">和其他指标一样，巴菲特指标也有其缺点。<strong>其中一个问题是它没有纳入利率因素</strong>，目前美国联邦基金利率处于20多年来的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡斯补充说，<strong>它也没有考虑到公司利润中来自海外的份额正在增长这一事实。</strong>他说，“投资的全貌非常复杂，没有任何指标是绝对可靠的。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天特有的另一个潜在复杂因素是，过去18个月中，少数几家大型股贡献了美股的大部分涨幅。这意味着该指标可能忽略了这样一个观点：<strong>许多股票相对于历史而言仍然便宜，而只有少数股票极其昂贵。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据FactSet的数据，标普500指数在周二创下了今年第36个收盘新高。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/143078><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“巴菲特指标”曾预示1987年和2000年的美股大跌，如今它再度发出警告。巴菲特青睐的一个指标正向投资者发出警告信号。据一位对冲基金创始人表示，该指标的信息很明确：美股看起来极其昂贵，因此投资者需要谨慎行事。对于不熟悉这个概念的人来说，巴菲特指标通过将美股总市值除以国内生产总值（GDP）来比较美股的价值与经济规模。早在2001年巴菲特就表示，该指标是“衡量任何给定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标”。截至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/143078\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/143078","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141358080","content_text":"“巴菲特指标”曾预示1987年和2000年的美股大跌，如今它再度发出警告。巴菲特青睐的一个指标正向投资者发出警告信号。据一位对冲基金创始人表示，该指标的信息很明确：美股看起来极其昂贵，因此投资者需要谨慎行事。对于不熟悉这个概念的人来说，巴菲特指标通过将美股总市值除以国内生产总值（GDP）来比较美股的价值与经济规模。早在2001年巴菲特就表示，该指标是“衡量任何给定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标”。截至7月初，这一比率升至2以上，达到自2022年初以来未曾见过的水平。根据FactSet的数据，此前的一次类似情况预示了自2008年以来标普500指数最糟糕的日历年跌幅。对冲基金Seabreeze Partners Management的创始人兼总裁道格·卡斯（Doug Kass）说：“几乎两年前，该比率上升到了前所未有的水平。那本应是一个非常强烈的警告信号。”自从首次称赞该指标以来，这位被称为奥马哈先知的人已经对该指标的态度有所保留，但像卡斯这样的投资者仍然使用它来帮助确定美股的估值水平。该指标过去相当可靠，它预示了1987年和2000年的大幅抛售，以及金融危机前夕的情况。卡斯表示，一般来说，当该指标达到其长期平均值的两倍标准差时，投资者应该开始注意。而今天它正处于这一水平。卡斯说，巴菲特最初被这个指标吸引的部分原因是他对容易被操纵的指标持怀疑态度。目前，巴菲特指标并非唯一一个表明股票估值看起来被高估的指标。包括基于过去12个月市盈率、市销率和企业价值与销售额比率在内的其他流行估值指标，均高于历史上的第90百分位，卡斯说。和其他指标一样，巴菲特指标也有其缺点。其中一个问题是它没有纳入利率因素，目前美国联邦基金利率处于20多年来的最高水平。卡斯补充说，它也没有考虑到公司利润中来自海外的份额正在增长这一事实。他说，“投资的全貌非常复杂，没有任何指标是绝对可靠的。”今天特有的另一个潜在复杂因素是，过去18个月中，少数几家大型股贡献了美股的大部分涨幅。这意味着该指标可能忽略了这样一个观点：许多股票相对于历史而言仍然便宜，而只有少数股票极其昂贵。根据FactSet的数据，标普500指数在周二创下了今年第36个收盘新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4176015869668532","authorId":"4176015869668532","name":"Iam陈奕贤","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4176015869668532","authorIdStr":"4176015869668532"},"content":"是的，标普500平均市盈率是22倍，目前是27倍，这么对比确实不便宜，甚至有点偏贵，但是今年的情况比较特殊，基本上是被七巨头拉高的，而其它的行业不算贵，甚至有的很便宜，我个人认为科技股有泡沫，其它行业没有泡沫。","text":"是的，标普500平均市盈率是22倍，目前是27倍，这么对比确实不便宜，甚至有点偏贵，但是今年的情况比较特殊，基本上是被七巨头拉高的，而其它的行业不算贵，甚至有的很便宜，我个人认为科技股有泡沫，其它行业没有泡沫。","html":"是的，标普500平均市盈率是22倍，目前是27倍，这么对比确实不便宜，甚至有点偏贵，但是今年的情况比较特殊，基本上是被七巨头拉高的，而其它的行业不算贵，甚至有的很便宜，我个人认为科技股有泡沫，其它行业没有泡沫。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392960346,"gmtCreate":1607352812685,"gmtModify":1703847333429,"author":{"id":"3449208274734362","authorId":"3449208274734362","name":"杲杲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3449208274734362","authorIdStr":"3449208274734362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老虎在线客服为什么没有反应？","listText":"老虎在线客服为什么没有反应？","text":"老虎在线客服为什么没有反应？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392960346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941799903,"gmtCreate":1594999639402,"gmtModify":1704207798020,"author":{"id":"3449208274734362","authorId":"3449208274734362","name":"杲杲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3449208274734362","authorIdStr":"3449208274734362"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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