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Tesla's Stock Dive Tells Investors This One Key Thing

Dow Jones01-03

Tesla's disappointing delivery results show how hard it's getting to sell electric vehicles.

Tesla reported fourth-quarter deliveries, Thursday. The auto maker reported a respectable 495,570 vehicles sold -- a quarterly record. Still, deliveries missed Wall Street estimates by some 10,000 units.

Investors weren't pleased. The stock dropped 6.1% on Thursday closing at $379.28.

There were a few reasons investors expected more. For starters, there was Tesla's goal. It projected more vehicles sold in 2024 than in 2023. That expectation implied about 515,000 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter. Tesla missed its mark by roughly 20,000 cars.

It wasn't for lack of trying. TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne pointed out in a Thursday report that deliveries were light despite aggressive discounting. Tesla offered 0% annual percentage rate financing on some models in the U.S., down from 1.99% in the third quarter. "Tesla also announced a lease buyout option on Nov. 27" to further boost sales, added Osborne.

Tesla's incentives didn't drive as much volume growth as hoped for.

There was also no -- or not enough -- buying by those looking to get ahead of the potential loss of the Federal EV purchase tax credit worth up to $7,500 for qualifying purchases. Wall Street believes President-elect Donald Trump will eliminate the Biden-era credit. Car buyers going electric would have had to purchase an EV in 2024 to ensure they captured the subsidy.

Things were set up for a great quarter. It turned out to be very good.

Despite the Thursday dip, Tesla stock was still up 51% since the Nov. 5 election, adding some $410 billion to Tesla's market value.

Investors are focused more on 2025 right now. Tesla is expected to launch a lower-priced model, helping boost volume growth. The car, due out in early 2025, should start around $30,000 before any Federal or State subsidies.

Then there is artificial intelligence. Tesla uses AI to train its autonomous driving software and plans to launch a self-driving robo-taxi service in late 2025. "The $1 trillion of AI valuation has started to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun, " wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a Thursday report.

He rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $515 price target for Tesla stock. Osborne rates Tesla shares Hold and has a $180 price target for shares.

The difference in price targets amounts to about $1.1 trillion in market value. Wall Street doesn't exactly agree on how to value Tesla stock -- or how 2025 will turn out for the EV maker.

Shares were up 1.3% in premarket trading at $384.48, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

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