NANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

NANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?

seekingalpha08-26

NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, ...

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These are still in the design phase and commercial products are not likely to emerge this decade. Other business lines are likely to appear sooner, but the economics are difficult to assess, so it's hard from an investor point of view to formulate projections given the lack of hard data. This is more for specialists who can assess the viability of the company's reactor designs. Given the significant amount of private finance the company receives, there seem to be plenty of such people, which should provide a modicum of confidence. Business The company has four key business lines:  Micro Nuclear Reactor Business; developing next-generation portable nuclear microreactors, the Zeus and the Odin. Fuel Fabrication Business; developing a domestic HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel fabrication facility.  Fuel Transportation Business scheduled for 2026. Nuclear Consultation Services, either through acquisition or internal development.  Microreactors The market for SMRs (small modular reactors, that is, modules up to 300MWe capacity per unit) has players like NuScale (SMR), which already has a certified design. Its Power Module is designed to generate 77MWe per module, and can be deployed in configurations of 4, 6, or 12 modules. The SMR market is actually quite lively as there are several players with plans in this space (Carbon Credits): SMRs are under construction or in the licensing stage in various countries including Japan, Canada, China, Russia, UK, and the United States. Over 80 commercial SMR designs worldwide target diverse outputs and applications such as electricity, hybrid energy systems, heating, water desalination, and industrial steam. One should keep in mind that most of these pertain to the SMR (small modular reactors) market while Nano operates in a segment of this, the microreactors (up to 10MWe), which are much smaller still and basically a replacement for diesel generators. Much of the SMR market offers much larger modules compared to Nano, so these can't be considered real competition. Nano plans to operate on the scale of microreactors that generate between 1 and 10MW (or according to some sources, 20MW) of thermal energy that is used directly as heat or converted to electric power. Applications are situations like:  District heating Water desalination Hydrogen fuel production Emergency use cases like outages or natural disasters, as microreactors are even portable. They can be rapidly deployed and are easily scalable, so adaptable to many situations. Microreactors can supplement microgrids and bare integrable with renewable energies. Microreactors can operate for up to 15 years.  In fact, what Nano tries to do (hence its name) is to build even smaller reactors that provide between 1 and 2MW of electricity, and they're actually designing two of these, the Zeus and the Odin. The company does have competition in the form of Oklo (OKLO), the microreactor company that also recently enjoyed its IPO (at $15.50 per share) and is backed by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, who functions as its chair, and it merged with his SPAC for the IPO. That's no surprise as Oklo has a LOI to supply up to 500MW of power to Equinox, a data center company. As one might surmise from that 500MW figure, Oklo's reactors are significantly larger than Nano's. The Oklo liquid-metal-cooled, metal-fueled fast reactor (called Aurora) runs on recycled waste fuel, which is a significant innovation running up to 10 years without refueling. Oklo's reactors will provide 15MW of electrical power, have the potential to scale to 50MWe, and will typically be used for powering data centers (and also stuff like oilfield operations like the deal it has with newcleo). Oklo's plans seem to be further along as they already have a pipeline for some 1,350 MW of microreactor capacity as of this month, a 93% increase from about 700 MW in July 2023 and (Carbon Credits): Oklo received a site use permit from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2019, secured fuel from Idaho National Laboratory, and submitted a license application to build its first plant. Oklo aims to bring its first plant online before the decade's end. Zeus Microreactor NNE Prospectus The Zeus microreactor is a solid-core battery reactor under development by NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. The company has filed multiple provisional patent applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to protect the intellectual property surrounding the Zeus reactor. The main characteristics are:  The reactor core is completely sealed and utilizes a highly conductive moderator matrix for fission energy dissipation. Heat is extracted from outside the vessel using a novel proprietary technology. The lack of internal fluid in the core eliminates common accident scenarios such as loss of coolant or loss of flow. This \"walk-away safe\" design emphasizes stability and safety, making it suitable for remote locations with minimal intervention. The Zeus core and power conversion system are designed to fit within a standard shipping container for easy transport to remote sites. The absence of in-core fluid further reduces the system's footprint by eliminating the need for components like pumps and pipes. The Zeus reactor employs an open-air Brayton cycle for power conversion. The Zeus core is engineered to deliver constant power for a minimum of 10 years at full power. The microreactor prototype can harness thermal energy for direct heat applications or convert it to electricity, catering to diverse needs. The design incorporates conventional materials and multiple off-the-shelf components to expedite time-to-market and reduce costs. The prototype aims to provide clean electricity, aligning with growing interest in renewable energy. Its design also supports non-electric applications like hydrogen fuel production.  Odin Microreactor The Odin is the company's second reactor design with the following characteristics:  A Low-Pressure Coolant System reduces stress on structural components, ultimately enhancing reliability and operational lifespan. A Simplified Reactivity Control that is designed for high reliability and robustness by minimizing moving parts. The reactor functions at temperatures exceeding those of traditional water-cooled reactors, leading to more resilient operation and improved power conversion efficiency for electricity generation. The design prioritizes the use of natural convection for heat transfer to the power conversion cycle during full power operation. This approach also enhances decay heat removal during shutdowns, operational transients, and off-normal conditions. The Odin is designed to utilize conventional fuel with an enrichment of up to 20%. This strategy helps to minimize the scope and cost of the development and testing program and leverage existing knowledge and infrastructure related to conventional nuclear fuel. ALIP (annular linear induction pump) cooling technology, an electromagnetic pump system, forms a crucial element of the Odin reactor. This technology was acquired from Dr. Carlos O. Maidana in June 2024 and is expected to be further refined through an SBIR Phase III project. There is an expectation that the ALIP technology can be commercialized for third-party use (in salt-based coolant reactors).  Progress Both the Odin and the Zeus reactors are transitioning from the design stage into the physical test work phase. This involves:  Constructing initial rigs to validate design models. Ensuring the accuracy of the models used in the design process. Optimizing the materials and dimensions of reactor components for performance and safety.  NNE has completed external design audits for both the Odin and Zeus reactors, conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These audits provide valuable external validation and design assistance. NNE believes that the ALIP technology, beyond its role in the Odin reactor, has the potential for independent commercialization within a year as a component for various salt-based coolant reactors used in diverse sectors. From the July 2024 prospectus: We estimate that our microreactor demonstration work will be conducted between 2024 and 2026, our microreactor licensing application will be processed between 2026 and 2031, and our microreactors will be launched between 2030 and 2031. The first interest from abroad emerged with the company signing a MOU with Rwanda, from the PR: The MOU establishes a framework under which NANO Nuclear work alongside the RAEB to facilitate the introduction and eventual integration of small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, like 'ZEUS' and 'ODIN', NANO Nuclear 's next generation microreactors in development, throughout the Republic of Rwanda. NANO Nuclear will also be responsible for enabling the development of the country's entire ecosystem of nuclear energy systems. This includes providing technical assistance, training and educational programs to develop Rwanda's technical expertise in the nuclear energy industry. HALEU Business HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) is a type of nuclear fuel with a higher concentration of the fissile isotope U-235 compared to traditional low-enriched uranium. HALEU is central to NNE's strategy because:  HALEU is necessary to fuel the next generation of advanced nuclear reactors, including NNE's microreactors. By developing a HALEU fuel fabrication facility, NNE aims to become a vertically integrated nuclear energy company, controlling the fuel supply for its reactors. The limited availability of HALEU presents a significant market opportunity. NNE aims to become a key supplier of this critical material to other companies developing advanced reactors.  Fuel Transportation Business We give you this from a recent PR: Advanced Fuel Transportation Inc. (AFT), a NANO Nuclear subsidiary, is led by former executives from the largest transportation company in the world aiming to build a North American transportation company that will provide commercial quantities of HALEU fuel to small modular reactors, microreactor companies, national laboratories, military, and DOE programs. Through NANO Nuclear, AFT is the exclusive licensee of a patented high-capacity HALEU fuel transportation basket developed by three major U.S. national nuclear laboratories and funded by the Department of Energy. Assuming development and commercialization, AFT is expected to form part of the only vertically integrated nuclear fuel business of its kind in North America. Consultation business In the prospectus, management argued that if they were unable to acquire a consultation business, they would build one, spending $2M over 12 months hiring specialists. It looks like they could have their first customer in the form of a MoU with Rwanda. Financials Here are the company's operations: NNE Q2/24 10-Q The company doesn't produce revenues and isn't likely to produce any revenue anytime soon, so this is all about cash flow. Operational cash outflow was $5.95M for the last 9 months, so it's roughly $8M on a 12-month basis (subject to change when they acquire or build their consulting business or reactor prototypes). The company raised $10.46M (NET) from its IPO at $4, and the company had $13.8M at the end of Q2, but they added $20M in a new round of financing in July or $18.6M net, so the company now has $32.4M in funds, which should last them 2-3 years depending on activities. One of these activities involved the recent acquisition of a new headquarters for $1.71M. That latest July financing is pretty amazing, as it was overalloted at $20 per share, while the IPO price was just $4. Risks There are multiple risks:  Developing new reactor types, however promising these might seem, might throw up unexpected hurdles, technical problems, delays, and disappointments. Obtaining permits and licenses for nuclear facilities is a time-consuming and complex process with stringent safety and environmental standards. Building and operating microreactors require significant capital investment, presenting a challenge for funding and cost management. The market for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors is still developing. There is no guarantee of market growth aligning with NNE's expectations. There are public concerns about nuclear energy, so ensuring transparency and emphasizing the safety and environmental benefits of its microreactor technology is paramount.  NNE Stock Valuation Here is what management argued in the prospectus: Notwithstanding the foregoing, our limited operating history and early stage of business makes an evaluation of our business and prospects very difficult... Our new and unproven technology model will necessitate a significant infusion of additional capital for successful deployment, even following this offering. Indeed. The reactors are unlikely to generate any revenues this decade, and the prospects of the other businesses are also very difficult to gauge as they have to be set up. Here is what they argue (in the prospectus, once again): Our technical team is world class, with simple and realizable reactor concepts that do not require exotic fuels and who are aware of all the difficulties faced by almost every other reactor company who has chosen alternative designs. If that's true (and knowledgeable investors are betting on this with their pocketbooks) they could have an amazing business next decade, but it's a long way to get there, and they will have to navigate quite a few obstacles. On August 13, 2024, there were 30.14M shares outstanding, 4.1M outstanding options and 1M warrants for a fully diluted count of 35.2M, which yields a market cap of some $350M (at around $10 per share). That's not a negligible market cap for a company with revenue years off. Conclusion The stock is not unlike a pre-clinical stage biotech company with years of trials (and capital needs) ahead of it, facing an uncertain outcome. We would argue that this is a stock for those who are either familiar with (and have confidence in) the people running it and/or are intimately familiar with the technicalities of their plans, most notably with respect to the two reactor designs. Given the fact that they managed to gather a notable amount of private money, one could argue that there are such people, willing and able to vote with their pocketbooks. For the rest of us, it doesn't seem a good idea to put money in something where returns are years off and outcomes are uncertain and difficult to assess. There will likely be a significant market for microreactors, but it's a new concept and the ones this company proposes are still in the design stage, and it's difficult for us to assess what hurdles are waiting on their journey to fully commercial propositions, or what the economics of these look like.  One should also entertain the possibility that even if the reactors become a home run, investors might not share in that, depending on the amount of financing and dilution that could lay ahead.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}