大摩：鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前，要想清楚这一点！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩：鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前，要想清楚这一点！

金十数据08-19

本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会，这次会议的主题恰如其分：“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略，尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张，同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已经发出了准备开始降息的信号，但鲍威尔可能会指出，即使在降息之后，政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上，一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和...

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·08-19
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clearly!","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5828f2aba2dd8bdbb2db70ab3d458208","symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6},"content_text":"本周所有的注意力都将集中在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会，这次会议的主题恰如其分：“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略，尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张，同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已经发出了准备开始降息的信号，但鲍威尔可能会指出，即使在降息之后，政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上，一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓，但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温，但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退，这一历史关系已被广泛提及。但我之前曾撰文指出，如今的劳动力市场与过去大不相同。失业率上升在历史上一直是经济衰退的先兆，因为除了劳动力需求下降之外，它还预示着就业机会的减少。但在本轮经济周期中，劳动力需求无疑已从不可持续的速度放缓，但裁员率仍然很低。此外，在过去的周期中，失业率发出的信号并不明显，因为在经济衰退时劳动力供应也会下降。这一次，失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说，4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平，其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。过去的失业率上升对就业市场疲软的暗示更强信贷利差也有类似的情况。从最近一轮市场波动之前的情况来看，信贷利差呈扩大趋势，但仍远未达到衰退水平。正如经济与战略联合出版物所讨论的，市场波动期间出现的信贷利差扩大只是从历史上狭窄利差的回调。市场仍然对发行人开放，随着收益率的压缩，投资级债券（IG）和高收益债券（HY）发行人继续在当前的利率水平上筹集资金。信贷利差的扩大看起来是暂时的。事实上，本轮周期与以往周期的不同之处在于，目前大多数违约都是债务成本过高导致的重组，而不是一波企业直接破产或盈利不佳的浪潮。随着美联储降低利率，即使是这些“软违约”也不会构成太大挑战。信贷利差虽然有所扩大，但远低于衰退水平消费支出（约占美国经济的70%）是另一个很好的例子。美国的消费支出飙升，远远超过了其趋势，因此消费水平应该回归到与收入更相符的基本面。紧缩的货币政策只会强化这一趋势。我们认为，这一进程正在进行中，上周的零售销售报告表明，美国消费者还很活跃。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别，事实上，市场经常会交易另一个概念，即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓，同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点，即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。当然，我们和美联储可能都错了。州一级的数据意味着7月份的就业数据受到了飓风的压制，但如果8月份的数据继续下滑，我们预计降息幅度会更大。但这种结果将说明趋势出现了重大改变。本文由摩根士丹利首席经济学家Seth 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