涨薪5.28%！日本央行敢不敢加息？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

涨薪5.28%！日本央行敢不敢加息？

金十数据03-16

日本“春斗”首轮结果出炉，涨薪5.28%，为30多年来最大涨幅，远超去年3.8%的幅度，日本央行真的会结束负利率了吗？日本“春斗”首轮结果出炉，涨薪5.28%！虽然低于工会要求的5.85%，但仍是自1991年（5.66%）后33年来的最高值，也远超去年3.8%的幅度。日本央行一直担忧薪资-物价无法螺旋式上涨的话，结束通缩时间未成熟，加息时间未到。但是，此次加薪幅度远超去年，日媒也疯狂出来打预防针，...

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饿虎
·03-18
市场就是要波动，不然就培养不出来经济学家了。
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睡着容易但是醒来真的好难
·03-17
会加息[财迷]
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yellowtimes
·03-17
不死一个不拉到啊
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中铁二局
·03-17
谁不加息谁孙子
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Vix玩家
·03-16
加息之后会很快降息
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- 带泡沫的苹果:
  不会，会连续几年加息
  03-17
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。日媒是怎么一步步道出日本央行的心态变化的？3月12日是“据悉日本央行内部对3月结束负利率的支持加强”，也就是说，有官员开始改变自己的观点。随后消息人士爆出日本央行考虑加息。从支持力度变大到开始考虑，加息意愿开始发酵。同日，消息人士再称，日本央行加息步伐将缓慢，避免损害经济。即日本央行已经在考虑“要怎么加息”而不是“要不要加息了”，有种加息势在必行的意味。13日，“春斗”中大企业集中公布涨薪幅度，多数都创30年来新高，14日凌晨日经新闻深夜再次出来强化预期，说日本央行下周会讨论退出负利率，日元小幅走高了20点。14日“春斗”首轮谈判结果出炉前一日，日本时事通讯社报道称，日本央行在“安排下周加息”，日元短线拉升了50点，从讨论加息到安排加息，又又进了一步，看来是已公布的涨薪幅度让其很满意了。15日薪资涨幅出结果后，加息最后一块拼图合上，日媒爆料日本央行为加息做最后安排了。16日凌晨，日媒称日本央行下周将把利率上调至0%-0.1%区间 ，以几乎肯定的口吻爆出日本央行的具体加息目标。这样子的一番循序渐进引导把3月加息的期待值抬得很高，怪不得美银也从预期4月加息转向3月了。不过，加息时间早则三月，晚则四月，市场仍然看法不一。野村证券策略师Naka Matsuzawa认为，日本央行本次将全面改变其政策框架。包含五方面：1)将政策利率目标从-0.10%上调至0-0.10%；2)取消收益率曲线控制，同时取消10年期国债收益率目标；3)暂停ETF购买； 4) 推迟继续增加货币基础的承诺；5)引入新的量化目标(从每月购买6万亿日元日本国债开始)。最后两点合在一起意味着日本央行将很快开始量化紧缩。如果本次日本央行真的加息，市场会有什么反应？Matsuzawa认为，市场的直接反应应该是温和的，因为日本央行与市场就下一步正常化的行动进行了良好的沟通。话虽如此，市场尚未消化日本央行将以多快的速度缩减日本国债购买规模，这可能导致日元走高、日本国债收益率上升和股价下跌。投资者对股票的偏好也将从出口类股转向内需驱动型股。也有观点认为日本央行的脚步不会那么快。日本道富环球投资顾问首席投资官Kensuke Niihara认为，日本央行一直在建设性地引导市场应对即将到来的政策变化，我们一直预计政策变化将于4月份开始。但是，30多年来最高的涨薪幅度得到了大企业的认可。再加上日本央行对潜在通胀的评估，这些事态发展大大提高了3月份采取政策行动的可能性。我们预计，到今年年底，政策利率将走出负增长区间，达到0.10%。道富环球的评估显示，日元被严重低估，我们长期看多日元。美联储和日本央行在政策方向上可能出现的分歧，将支持日元走强。然而，我们认为日本央行在退出负利率政策后将维持宽松的货币政策，因此我们预计对包括日元在内的市场的影响将是有限的。如果美联储进入一个稳定的超过100-150个基点的降息周期，或者日本工资上涨、经济增长强劲到足以支持日本央行多次加息，日元可能会有意义地升值。最后回顾一下，日本央行自2016年1月29日引入负利率政策，将商业银行存放在日本央行的超额准备金存款利率从之前的0.1%降至-0.1%。自此，日本进入“负利率”时代，并持续至今。如果日本央行本次真的宣布加息，是长达17年来首次上调利率，全球始于的21世纪10年代的负利率时代也将画上句号。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":285539684909352,"gmtCreate":1710717545792,"gmtModify":1710717547677,"author":{"id":"3547720669746519","authorId":"3547720669746519","name":"饿虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845e42dd95119c661b7e0a1fd1bb7135","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547720669746519","authorIdStr":"3547720669746519"},"htmlText":"市场就是要波动，不然就培养不出来经济学家了。","listText":"市场就是要波动，不然就培养不出来经济学家了。","text":"市场就是要波动，不然就培养不出来经济学家了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285539684909352","repostId":2419169437,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":285301957677368,"gmtCreate":1710659507355,"gmtModify":1710659509497,"author":{"id":"3483248347836416","authorId":"3483248347836416","name":"睡着容易但是醒来真的好难","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75246272dd2466177c41a9d516235b79","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3483248347836416","authorIdStr":"3483248347836416"},"htmlText":"会加息[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"会加息[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"会加息[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285301957677368","repostId":2419169437,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":285266345304328,"gmtCreate":1710650811006,"gmtModify":1710650812787,"author":{"id":"3493697741648925","authorId":"3493697741648925","name":"yellowtimes","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493697741648925","authorIdStr":"3493697741648925"},"htmlText":"不死一个不拉到啊","listText":"不死一个不拉到啊","text":"不死一个不拉到啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285266345304328","repostId":2419169437,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":285252367229072,"gmtCreate":1710647397919,"gmtModify":1710647865984,"author":{"id":"3564627125056965","authorId":"3564627125056965","name":"中铁二局","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564627125056965","authorIdStr":"3564627125056965"},"htmlText":"谁不加息谁孙子","listText":"谁不加息谁孙子","text":"谁不加息谁孙子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285252367229072","repostId":2419169437,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":284958450340104,"gmtCreate":1710575641338,"gmtModify":1710575643185,"author":{"id":"4115791812292030","authorId":"4115791812292030","name":"Vix玩家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abe602164bc8a8c1ef512eab6153e01","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4115791812292030","authorIdStr":"4115791812292030"},"htmlText":"加息之后会很快降息","listText":"加息之后会很快降息","text":"加息之后会很快降息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284958450340104","repostId":2419169437,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":285253369065480,"gmtCreate":1710648254475,"gmtModify":1710648258256,"authorId":3491812622453185,"author":{"id":3491812622453185,"idStr":"3491812622453185","authorId":3491812622453185,"name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDispla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