大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年

华尔街见闻03-10

2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

Mediator
·03-10
2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的
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带泡沫的苹果
·03-10
你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光
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- 带泡沫的苹果:
  没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业
  03-10
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- 霸气威武:
  脱实向虚虚空作画
  03-10
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Johnfly999
·03-10
赌未来
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Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。摩根大通在报告中写道：回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":282746172555304,"gmtCreate":1710058317301,"gmtModify":1710058319794,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccbee84d06c97c8ea354bff2e5c20b6d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorIdStr":"3498680662745699"},"htmlText":"2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的","listText":"2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的","text":"2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282746172555304","repostId":2418075892,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":282745167196192,"gmtCreate":1710057964387,"gmtModify":1710057965982,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3491812622453185","authorIdStr":"3491812622453185"},"htmlText":"你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光","listText":"你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光","text":"你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282745167196192","repostId":2418075892,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":282759357448208,"gmtCreate":1710061431503,"gmtModify":1710061435342,"authorId":3491812622453185,"author":{"id":3491812622453185,"idStr":"3491812622453185","authorId":3491812622453185,"name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":282745167196192,"type":1,"supId":282746258554888,"prevId":0,"content":"没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业","text":"没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业","html":"没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业"},{"id":282746258554888,"gmtCreate":1710058233112,"gmtModify":1710058236888,"authorId":3554708838834221,"author":{"id":3554708838834221,"idStr":"3554708838834221","authorId":3554708838834221,"name":"霸气威武","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884a97d08a6f7f0246c299686e81f873","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":282745167196192,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"脱实向虚&nbsp; 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