通胀爆表，加息预期炸了，但为何美股没有大跌？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

通胀爆表，加息预期炸了，但为何美股没有大跌？

华尔街见闻2022-07-14

美国6月通胀数据再度爆表，加息预期快速走高，但美股走势却相对淡定，盘中一度收复跌势，最终以微跌收盘。7月13日周三，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国6月份CPI同比上涨9.1%，远超市场预估的8.8%，续创逾40年新高。环比涨幅1.3%，创2005年来最高纪录。CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储7月大幅加息预期陡增，加息75个基点几乎是板上钉钉，100个基点的猜想也在冒头。掉期市场完全计价入美联储在7月...

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华尔街小街
·2022-07-14
等于没说，废话连篇。
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真的英雄
·2022-07-14
跟中国的房地产一样
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老 A
·2022-07-14
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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碧海蓝天天天
·2022-07-14
为啥呢
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Heaxxxxxx
·2022-07-14
流动性会越来越差的
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fall sharply?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ccf7220cf35718978bc571a27fc67f","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"美国6月通胀数据再度爆表，加息预期快速走高，但美股走势却相对淡定，盘中一度收复跌势，最终以微跌收盘。7月13日周三，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国6月份CPI同比上涨9.1%，远超市场预估的8.8%，续创逾40年新高。环比涨幅1.3%，创2005年来最高纪录。CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储7月大幅加息预期陡增，加息75个基点几乎是板上钉钉，100个基点的猜想也在冒头。掉期市场完全计价入美联储在7月和9月共加息150个基点，其中7月更大幅度加息100个基点的可能性抬升至3/4。反观美股走势，开盘深跌，但近90分钟后，以科技股为主的纳指和纳斯达克100指数率先转涨，午盘时，标普大盘也转涨，道指则全天保持跌势。尾盘时，标普、纳指和罗素小盘股均在涨跌之间震荡，最终小幅收跌。那么市场究竟是如何理解最新数据？加息更猛，但也结束得更快？分析认为，美股之所以没有大跌的一个原因是，市场预期，随着美联储大举加息，本轮紧缩周期可能会比此前预期的更早结束。事实上，美国国债期货目前显示，利率将在明年1月见顶。而在一个月前，市场还预计利率要到明年6月才会见顶。媒体援引Harvest Volatility Management交易和研究主管Mike Zigmont表示，“利率市场已经响亮而明确地表示，它认为美联储将采取更激进的措施——但由于这种更激进的预测，美联储将更快取得成功。”另一个对美股构成支撑的原因是，市场认为最糟糕的时期已经过去，6月的通胀数据可能标志着这波通胀浪潮的顶点，尤其是在大宗商品价格近几周暴跌之后。实际上，债券市场对未来价格压力的预期已经有所缓解。衡量未来十年平均通胀预期的10年期通胀保值债券(TIPS)盈亏平衡通胀率已降至2.33%，接近10个月低点。此外，有观点认为，美股之所以“挺得住”是因为已经跌透了，许多坏消息已反映在股票价格中。摩根大通的一个模型显示，截至上周五，标准普尔500指数反映出经济衰退的概率为72%，而美国国债所反映的衰退概率仅为28%。以今年以来跌得最惨的科技股为例，纳斯达克100指数已较近期高点下跌三分之一，目前预期市盈率为20倍，接近疫情爆发以来的最低水平。摩根大通分析师近期在一份报告中指出，债券收益率的向上重新定价一度对估值构成了限制，但这可能会暂时缓解，许多成长股的估值已经下滑，在增长长期有望超过市场其他部分的低迷角落，低价成长股正在出现。但市场瞬息万变，上述的乐观情绪未必能在接下来的行情中延续。Mischler Financial Group Inc.国际交易主管Larry Peruzzi表示，市场反弹是基于6月CPI指数达到通胀峰值，7月数据将会更好的观点，但需要谨慎看待这种看法，因为这仅仅是本月31天以来的第13天，“情况可能很快就会逆转。”美股目前依然深陷熊市，标普500指数年内跌幅超过20%。但根据彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)的数据，要想达到投资者所消化的美国经济低迷的水平，基准指数需要再下跌5.8%，至3586点。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":688499195,"gmtCreate":1657777350821,"gmtModify":1704868247745,"author":{"id":"3548833144199437","authorId":"3548833144199437","name":"华尔街小街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c453aa154a0385dea9bd3e2202b604","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548833144199437","authorIdStr":"3548833144199437"},"htmlText":"等于没说，废话连篇。","listText":"等于没说，废话连篇。","text":"等于没说，废话连篇。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688499195","repostId":2251193093,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688408605,"gmtCreate":1657774212212,"gmtModify":1704868236098,"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6444b4970948c1077534c593eccd6d16","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3472509891364152","authorIdStr":"3472509891364152"},"htmlText":"跟中国的房地产一样","listText":"跟中国的房地产一样","text":"跟中国的房地产一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688408605","repostId":2251193093,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688401581,"gmtCreate":1657773641547,"gmtModify":1704868234731,"author":{"id":"4110531690656330","authorId":"4110531690656330","name":"老 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