华尔街大空头：美国经济增长放缓比预期更糟糕_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

华尔街大空头：美国经济增长放缓比预期更糟糕

华尔街见闻2022-07-05

摩根士丹利警告，受俄乌冲突影响，美国经济正处于经济放缓之中，而且将比预期还要糟糕。华尔街大空头、摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最新的报告中表示，鉴于美债收益率近期下跌，投资者预计如果通胀在今年下半年见顶，美联储可能会降低鹰派立场，但“利率下降应被理解为是对经济增长的担忧，而不是来自美联储的政策放松”。 Wilson认为，随着利率和股票风险溢价开始更准确地反映经济增长放缓，...

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cave
·2022-07-06
明明可以做多了。放假信息骗筹码。华尔街不是东西，谁信谁上当
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Wilson在最新的报告中表示，鉴于美债收益率近期下跌，投资者预计如果通胀在今年下半年见顶，美联储可能会降低鹰派立场，但“利率下降应被理解为是对经济增长的担忧，而不是来自美联储的政策放松”。\nWilson认为，随着利率和股票风险溢价开始更准确地反映经济增长放缓，市场可能会受到二季度公司业绩的影响。如果宏观经济数据不能证实经济衰退，美国股市可能会进一步上涨，但如果经济确实萎缩，标普500指数可能跌至3000点，这较最新收盘价低约22%。\n\nWilson警告，由于标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数的盈利预期目前仍远高于金融危机后美股整体盈利趋势线20%以上，美股存在盈利下修的风险。“而只有在盈利预期下修至更合理水平或者整个估值已经反映这种风险时，熊市才算见底”。\n在行业配置方面，Wilson认为目前市场更加青睐盈利较为稳定的行业，包括电信、公用事业、保险、房地产、部分消费必需品和医疗保健在内的防御性行业。科技硬件和半导体面临的风险则较大。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":681536066,"gmtCreate":1657058686057,"gmtModify":1704866390673,"author":{"id":"3553478378454908","authorId":"3553478378454908","name":"cave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553478378454908","authorIdStr":"3553478378454908"},"htmlText":"明明可以做多了。放假信息骗筹码。华尔街不是东西，谁信谁上当","listText":"明明可以做多了。放假信息骗筹码。华尔街不是东西，谁信谁上当","text":"明明可以做多了。放假信息骗筹码。华尔街不是东西，谁信谁上当","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681536066","repostId":2249859525,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2249859525","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657028694,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2249859525?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-05 21:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华尔街大空头：美国经济增长放缓  比预期更糟糕","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249859525","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果美国经济确实陷入衰退，股市可能再跌20%。","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>警告，受俄乌冲突影响，美国经济正处于经济放缓之中，而且将比预期还要糟糕。</p>\n<p>华尔街大空头、摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最新的报告中表示，鉴于美债收益率近期下跌，投资者预计如果通胀在今年下半年见顶，美联储可能会降低鹰派立场，但“<strong>利率下降应被理解为是对经济增长的担忧，而不是来自美联储的政策放松”。</strong></p>\n<p>Wilson认为，随着利率和股票风险溢价开始更准确地反映经济增长放缓，市场可能会受到二季度公司业绩的影响。如果宏观经济数据不能证实经济衰退，美国股市可能会进一步上涨，<strong>但如果经济确实萎缩，标普500指数可能跌至3000点，这较最新收盘价低约22%。</strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/57adfcbb-d605-4e37-8957-4b6ae6aed687.png\"/></p>\n<p>Wilson警告，由于标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数的盈利预期目前仍远高于金融危机后美股整体盈利<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>20%以上，美股存在盈利下修的风险。“而只有在盈利预期下修至更合理水平或者整个估值已经反映这种风险时，熊市才算见底”。</p>\n<p>在行业配置方面，Wilson认为目前市场更加青睐盈利较为稳定的行业，包括电信、公用事业、保险、房地产、部分消费必需品和医疗保健在内的防御性行业。科技硬件和半导体面临的风险则较大。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街大空头：美国经济增长放缓  比预期更糟糕</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街大空头：美国经济增长放缓  比预期更糟糕\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-05 21:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663923><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利警告，受俄乌冲突影响，美国经济正处于经济放缓之中，而且将比预期还要糟糕。\n华尔街大空头、摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最新的报告中表示，鉴于美债收益率近期下跌，投资者预计如果通胀在今年下半年见顶，美联储可能会降低鹰派立场，但“利率下降应被理解为是对经济增长的担忧，而不是来自美联储的政策放松”。\nWilson认为，随着利率和股票风险溢价开始更准确地反映经济增长放缓，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663923\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","MS":"摩根士丹利","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663923","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249859525","content_text":"摩根士丹利警告，受俄乌冲突影响，美国经济正处于经济放缓之中，而且将比预期还要糟糕。\n华尔街大空头、摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最新的报告中表示，鉴于美债收益率近期下跌，投资者预计如果通胀在今年下半年见顶，美联储可能会降低鹰派立场，但“利率下降应被理解为是对经济增长的担忧，而不是来自美联储的政策放松”。\nWilson认为，随着利率和股票风险溢价开始更准确地反映经济增长放缓，市场可能会受到二季度公司业绩的影响。如果宏观经济数据不能证实经济衰退，美国股市可能会进一步上涨，但如果经济确实萎缩，标普500指数可能跌至3000点，这较最新收盘价低约22%。\n\nWilson警告，由于标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数的盈利预期目前仍远高于金融危机后美股整体盈利趋势线20%以上，美股存在盈利下修的风险。“而只有在盈利预期下修至更合理水平或者整个估值已经反映这种风险时，熊市才算见底”。\n在行业配置方面，Wilson认为目前市场更加青睐盈利较为稳定的行业，包括电信、公用事业、保险、房地产、部分消费必需品和医疗保健在内的防御性行业。科技硬件和半导体面临的风险则较大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}