外资行纷纷唱多！新兴市场能够抵御美国衰退_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

外资行纷纷唱多！新兴市场能够抵御美国衰退

华尔街见闻2022-07-04

新兴市场有望受到廉价估值、更高的收益率、更快的经济增长以及最重要的中国复苏带来的支持。在40年来最严重的通胀压力之下，美联储的激进“收水”令越来越多投资者担忧美国经济将在不远的未来陷入衰退。高盛此前指出，美国陷入衰退，新兴市场会跟着遭殃，但中国股票是亮点。不同于高盛的观点，摩根大通和德意志银行等外资机构认为，新兴市场完全有能力应对美国经济衰退，甚至可能吸引更多的投资者。此外，外资机构认为，中国复苏...

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猛逃
·2022-07-04
莫须有[捂嘴]
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恒跌
·2022-07-04
扯**的，银行都快有问题新闻，你还期待镰刀
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大爷的您滴
·2022-07-04
涨了你唱多，跌了你唱空，墙头草
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- 2_the_moon:
  美股牛长熊短，必须唱多，接着奏乐接着舞！
  2022-07-04
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Emerging markets can withstand the US recession","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bb915efd077a1ca13be4e48a7b0386","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"GS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"DB":0.9,".DJI":0.76,"SPY":0.66,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"新兴市场有望受到廉价估值、更高的收益率、更快的经济增长以及最重要的中国复苏带来的支持。在40年来最严重的通胀压力之下，美联储的激进“收水”令越来越多投资者担忧美国经济将在不远的未来陷入衰退。高盛此前指出，美国陷入衰退，新兴市场会跟着遭殃，但中国股票是亮点。不同于高盛的观点，摩根大通和德意志银行等外资机构认为，新兴市场完全有能力应对美国经济衰退，甚至可能吸引更多的投资者。此外，外资机构认为，中国复苏将带来重大支持。外资机构认为，尽管对全球最大经济体衰退的担忧给美债和其他避险资产带来了冲击，但除了短期动荡之外，新兴市场还受到廉价估值、更高的收益率、更快的经济增长以及最重要的中国复苏带来的支持。考虑到目前新兴市场亏损规模，这一要求看似很高，新兴市场股票和债券均遭受了自20世纪90年代以来最严重的暴跌，货币更是遭受了有记录以来最严重的损失，甚至超过了2020年疫情爆发时。那么，当美国衰退来袭，新兴市场为何表现出弹性呢？新兴市场的历史性溃败播下了超越的种子德意志银行负责中欧、东欧、中东、非洲和拉丁美洲货币研究的分析师Oliver Harvey表示：新兴市场悲观情绪可能正接近顶峰，由于外资对当地资产配置比例较低，利率起点相对较高，估值较低等因素，新兴市场的表现可能会比过去的衰退时期要更好。历史表明，对美国经济衰退的预期就会引发新兴市场的早期抛售，在衰退真正到来时其估值不会下降太多。例如，美国在2009年6月结束了所谓的大衰退，但新兴市场股票和债券在2008年10月已触底，甚至在美联储开始量化宽松之前。这一次，新兴市场的抛售始于2021第一季度，比发达市场早了整整一年。Harvey指出，新兴市场资产与历史水平和发达市场相比来说都更便宜，目前的估值表明，轻度衰退已经定价，而严重衰退定价也不远了。中国经济复苏将缓解衰退担忧在所有将使美国经济衰退的影响降至最低的因素中，首个就是中国的复苏，随着疫情阴霾逐渐消退和财政政策、货币政策保持利好，分析师认为全球第二大经济体将在下半年出现反弹。英国保诚集团旗下的M&G Investments新兴市场债务主管Claudia Calich表示，如果中国经济增长仍保持良好，可能会部分缓解对美国或欧洲经济衰退的担忧。尽管仍存在潜在的宏观阻力，一些较脆弱的国家可能面临困难，但股票价格和估值已经进行了显著的调整，许多负面因素已经被考虑在内。摩根大通资产管理公司亚洲首席市场策略师Tai Hui则认为，虽然依赖对美国和欧洲出口的国家以及外部收支平衡承压、实际收益率较低的国家仍将处于弱势，但原材料出口商将受到来自最大的买家—中国的需求支撑。与摩根大通相同，德意志银行也认为，新兴市场经济增长将继续超越美国，为当地货币提供支持。不过，情况是多样化的，如捷克共和国和智利等国的增长风险正在上升，但波兰等经济体的前景强劲，南非和墨西哥的复苏仍在继续。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":681637031,"gmtCreate":1656935457225,"gmtModify":1704866056122,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"莫须有[捂嘴]&nbsp;","listText":"莫须有[捂嘴]&nbsp;","text":"莫须有[捂嘴]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681637031","repostId":2248369034,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":681857263,"gmtCreate":1656910281755,"gmtModify":1704865971025,"author":{"id":"3464587978783849","authorId":"3464587978783849","name":"恒跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1979ed439107058a8ba67c3a90477ff6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"扯**的，银行都快有问题新闻，你还期待镰刀","listText":"扯**的，银行都快有问题新闻，你还期待镰刀","text":"扯**的，银行都快有问题新闻，你还期待镰刀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681857263","repostId":2248369034,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":681851615,"gmtCreate":1656907352742,"gmtModify":1704865960566,"author":{"id":"3573721435810639","authorId":"3573721435810639","name":"大爷的您滴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3779483a93cb6784e56b0322bcd49e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"涨了你唱多，跌了你唱空，墙头草","listText":"涨了你唱多，跌了你唱空，墙头草","text":"涨了你唱多，跌了你唱空，墙头草","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681851615","repostId":2248369034,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7517751,"gmtCreate":1656908849540,"gmtModify":1656911596784,"authorId":3579905035385771,"author":{"id":3579905035385771,"authorId":3579905035385771,"name":"2_the_moon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae65150ea04c33cea6f3b4b524268cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":681851615,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"美股牛长熊短，必须唱多，接着奏乐接着舞！","text":"美股牛长熊短，必须唱多，接着奏乐接着舞！","html":"美股牛长熊短，必须唱多，接着奏乐接着舞！"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}