特斯拉暴跌，市场在担心什么？买下推特，马斯克可能破产？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

特斯拉暴跌，市场在担心什么？买下推特，马斯克可能破产？

老虎锐评2022-04-27

摘要：可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。昨天推特董事会同意了马斯克的收购要约，推特大涨逼近收购价$54.20。但是随着今天特斯拉股价大跌，貌似铁板钉钉的被收购的推特股价也大跌4%，这后面的逻辑是什么？特斯拉今天股价放量大跌，和上次马斯克套现时候的股价表现极其相似。特斯拉全天成交金额超过$400亿，估计晚些时候...

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那个我
·2022-04-27
大白天的，你做什么梦[笑哭] 特斯拉怎么可能短期一下子跌到700。
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- Jason小熊:
  哥们儿，现在觉得呢[捂脸][捂脸]
  2022-05-11
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顺盈
·2022-04-27
搬起石头砸自己的脚，马斯克何必碰5
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Jet2017
·2022-04-27
特斯拉的粉丝绝不会袖手旁观
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兼职教授
·2022-04-27
马斯克还有Xspace，估值至少1000亿
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Jack2862
·2022-04-27
不明白为什么要买T公司
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abcd韭菜大葱
·2022-04-27
找机会入场了
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Raylew
·2022-04-27
马斯克做的空。他套现收购Twitter呢。
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奥龙
·2022-04-27
现在还找得到比特斯拉还值得投资的公司吗[微笑]
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- Julio堂:
  没有
  2022-04-27
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TheOne666
·2022-04-27
按时
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bankrupt?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98c7a59dde6ef07b7e6fccabba19314","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1},"content_text":"摘要：可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。昨天推特董事会同意了马斯克的收购要约，推特大涨逼近收购价$54.20。但是随着今天特斯拉股价大跌，貌似铁板钉钉的被收购的推特股价也大跌4%，这后面的逻辑是什么？特斯拉今天股价放量大跌，和上次马斯克套现时候的股价表现极其相似。特斯拉全天成交金额超过$400亿，估计晚些时候SEC文件会显示马斯克今天已经开卖股票，开始筹措需要收购推特的资金。根据上周四马斯克给SEC递交的文件，这次收购共需资金$465亿，其中马斯克自筹资金$210亿，银行资金$255亿，下表是此次收购资金的结构。融资模式融资方融资金额债务-定期贷款摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$65亿债务-周转信贷摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$5亿债务-抵押过桥贷款摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$30亿债务-无抵押过桥贷款摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$30亿债务-保证金贷款均以马斯克对特斯拉股票的所有权为担保摩根士丹利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行、瑞士信贷、花旗、德意志银行、加拿大皇家银行、加拿大帝国商业银行$125亿资金承诺马斯克$210亿总融资额$465亿在银行的$255亿资金中，最大头$125亿来自于马斯克的特斯拉股票质押的贷款资金。银行表示最多提供股票价值的20%作为贷款，也就是说，$125亿的资金需要马斯克质押价值$625亿的股票。马斯克有这么多股票吗？下表是我们根据特斯拉的年报数据汇总的马斯克股票质押的情况。由于最新的2021年数据并没有出来，所以我们只有截至2020年年底马斯克股票质押的情况。马斯克持有股票马斯克已经质押股票质押比率尚未质押股票2020170,492,98588,331,12551.81%82,161,860201934,085,56018,466,22554.18%15,619,335201833,824,68013,394,05639.60%20,430,624201733,632,42113,774,89740.96%19,857,524201633,503,66811,450,72334.18%22,052,945201528,371,3429,420,11333.20%18,951,229201428,288,6977,424,89926.25%20,863,798201328,288,62210,024,89935.44%18,263,723201227,203,2379,470,00034.81%17,733,237201127,131,5654,500,00016.59%22,631,565201025,699,5964,500,00017.51%21,199,596可以看到，虽然是首富，马斯克超过50%的股票都已经质押。这些质押取得的资金，大部分都应该去了烧钱的SpaceX和Boring公司“上天入地“。2020年结束后，马斯克只有8,200万股票没有质押。去年马斯克期权行权加上卖出股份套现，这一进一出马斯克又多了约710万股。假设2021年马斯克没有质押更多的股份，那么马斯克手上约有8,900万股可以质押的股票，这是最优的情况。如果马斯克去年又质押了股票，那么数量会更少。下表是马斯克去年套现情况。行使期权数22,762,050期权价格6.24卖股数15,602,784总共套现金额$16,571,765,725共出售天数15天刚才说了，银行对马斯克的股票质押是20%。如果特斯拉股价在$1,000，那么马斯克质押股票是够的，但如果特斯拉跌到$600，那么马斯克就算质押所有股票，那么银行给的钱也不够了。下表是特斯拉股价和质押率的sensitivity分析，基于的假设是马斯克已经质押股票88,331,125股，没有质押股票89,321,126股。特斯拉股价完成推特收购后马斯克所有股票的质押率$1,00085%$90089%$80094%$700100%可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。所以马斯克现在就陷入了一个很尴尬的局面。一方面为了把自筹资金$210亿凑齐，他必须要卖股票，但卖股票就会压低股价，今天已经压到了$900之下；另一方面为了让银行给他足够的资金，他又必须要把股价维持在高位，今天收盘价低于了$900他的股票质押率会高达90%。最难受的，是如果收购推特以后又不套现，那么马斯克将永远保持非常高的特斯拉股票质押率，这对他个人的财务以及特斯拉的股价，都是非常危险的事情。谁说有钱就可以任性的？相关阅读：特斯拉一天市值蒸发超千亿美元，市场在担心什么？自马斯克四月初披露持有Twitter股权以来，特斯拉股票已累计跌去23%。显而易见，马斯克收购Twitter在投资者中造成了恐慌。上周四，马斯克向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件详细列出了从摩根士丹利和其他金融机构获得的255亿美元债务融资，包括用他在特斯拉的股权支持的保证金贷款。此外，马斯克本人还将提供210亿美元的股权融资。也就是说，马斯克已经获得465亿美元的资金来收购推特公司，但其中超过三分之二的资金或是由他自掏腰包，或是拿他的特斯拉股票作抵押。投资者担心，如果马斯克因为收购Twitter而分心，甚至可能通过出售特斯拉股票来资助这笔交易，将会影响到特斯拉的正常运营。甚至有网友在Twitter上戏称如今的特斯拉仿佛已经被马斯克抛弃。华尔街知名投行分析师Daniel Ives表示，这些担忧“在名义上引发了一场熊节”。此外，随着通胀高烧不退，美联储准备启动一系列大幅加息，全球股市普遍下挫，投资者纷纷逃离高增长企业。“特斯拉今天将面临三个打击，”美国国家证券公司(National Securities Corp.)首席市场策略师Arthur Hogan说，”除了担心出售（特斯拉股票）和成长性股票抛售加剧，特斯拉股票也反映出一些（投资者）担心马斯克分心过度而面临新的挑战。”周二这样的日子 马斯克再也承受不起对马斯克而言，这种波动并不新鲜。在过去两年中，特斯拉的股价偶尔会出现大幅下跌，但随后会被更大的涨幅所抵消。但这一次的暴跌给马斯克带来巨大风险。据彭博社，为了达成这笔交易，马斯克同意向银行融资130亿美元，利用个人所持特斯拉的部分股份获得125亿美元的融资承诺，另外210亿美元通过抵押股权获得。如果根据特斯拉周一的收盘价，足以保证马斯克支付保证金贷款，而且他仍然拥有价值约216亿美元的未抵押股票，税后几乎足够为交易的现金部分提供资金。但鉴于周二特斯拉股票跌超12%，这种回旋余地已经大大缩水。虽然马斯克仍然有足够的资金获得保证金贷款，但以目前的价格，他将只剩下114亿美元的未质押股票。据华尔街见闻此前文章，假如特斯拉股价跌至740美元下方，较周二收盘再跌去16%，马斯克就不够满足125亿美元融资的要求了。英国投资平台AJ Bell的投资总监Russ 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