This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now

MarketWatch2021-12-30

They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to ...

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Onglie
·2021-12-30
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DIDI","symbol_name":"滴滴(已退市)","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews","article_id":"2195949376","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195949376","pubTimestamp":1640867524,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4007":"制药","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4539":"次新股",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","JNJ":"强生","BK4022":"陆运","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"translate_title":"这个指示器在2000年和2007年闪烁警告--现在它正在嗡嗡作响","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JNJ":1,"DIDI":1,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to do with margin debt. 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According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.</p><p>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.</p><p>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.</p><p><b>The chart</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4022":"陆运","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4539":"次新股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195949376","content_text":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.Yet Davis can't quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.\"I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,\" he says. The S&P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.The chartIt's already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. \"At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":692132171,"gmtCreate":1640871518185,"gmtModify":1640871598310,"author":{"id":"3527303552443900","authorId":"3527303552443900","name":"458fd99c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527303552443900","authorIdStr":"3527303552443900"},"htmlText":"All","listText":"All","text":"All","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692132171","repostId":2195949376,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195949376","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640867524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2195949376?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195949376","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>They don&#39;t ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here&#39;s an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88cd20d2460fa528b42d175f5da964a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.</span></p><p>It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.</p><p>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.</p><p>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.</p><p><b>The chart</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4022":"陆运","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4539":"次新股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195949376","content_text":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.Yet Davis can't quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.\"I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,\" he says. The S&P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.The chartIt's already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. \"At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7141130,"gmtCreate":1640871524631,"gmtModify":1640871524718,"authorId":3527303552443900,"author":{"id":3527303552443900,"idStr":"3527303552443900","authorId":3527303552443900,"name":"458fd99c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":692132171,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":692138047,"gmtCreate":1640871134249,"gmtModify":1640871508974,"author":{"id":"3551375367105184","authorId":"3551375367105184","name":"Delfort","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff9b618d1943ace275e2ebca8e4b8130","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551375367105184","authorIdStr":"3551375367105184"},"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692138047","repostId":2195949376,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195949376","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640867524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2195949376?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195949376","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>They don&#39;t ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here&#39;s an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88cd20d2460fa528b42d175f5da964a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.</span></p><p>It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.</p><p>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.</p><p>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.</p><p><b>The chart</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4022":"陆运","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4539":"次新股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195949376","content_text":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.Yet Davis can't quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.\"I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,\" he says. The S&P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.The chartIt's already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. \"At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}